Yes…more rain and storms to talk about. Sorry kids! A complex of strong to severe storms that developed earlier this afternoon between Midland and Lubbock will be drifting off to the north/northeast this evening as an upper level impulse arrives across western and southwestern Texas. There is the potential for a small Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) to develop across the south plains and head into northwest Texas/southwest OK overnight, and this could bring an enhanced risk of additional heavy rainfall over already soaked fields and creeks. Localized flash flooding is possible overnight, so that will be something to be aware of as you head out the door tomorrow morning. The tornado threat across this region is low, but non-zero. The main threat this evening and overnight for west Texas and the south plains will be large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and gusty winds. Further south across central Texas and the coastal plains, nearly stationary pulse-type afternoon thunderstorms that have developed along and east of I-35 will continue for a few more hours before dissipating due to loss of daytime heating. However, storm regeneration is likely mainly along and west of I-35 as we head into the overnight hours as the aforementioned upper level disturbance arrives. Across northeast Texas, a large complex of heavy rain showers is expected to continue east and out of the area over the next several hours. The threat of severe weather across northeast Texas is low, but areas of heavy rainfall and plentiful lightning is a pretty sure bet.
Tomorrow, it’s anticipated that things will remain tame most of the day with scattered shower activity over central and eastern portions of the stay mid-day through the afternoon hours. A few strong storms are not out of the question, but it’s not looking like widespread severe weather is anticipated mid-day into the afternoon. By late tomorrow evening, a stronger upper level impulse arrives which will likely kick off a few strong to severe storms across parts of the panhandle along and ahead of the dryline. Timing for storm development across the panhandle tomorrow looks pretty late…mainly after dark…as the stronger upper level forcing associated with the disturbance looks to arrive a little late to the party. Still, we’ll have the chance of seeing a few severe storms with hail, high winds, frequent lightning and localized heavy rain as the primary threats.