Here is the updated severe weather outlook for later today. It still appears that the primary severe weather threat will be from 4 PM through 12 AM today. The threat for a few tornadoes will be greatest in the enhanced risk/level 3 zone. A low tornado threat is also present with any discrete storms that fire up in the slight/possible risk zone. Otherwise large hail up to the size of baseballs and destructive straight line wind gusts up to 75 MPH will be possible today. This will be a good day to keep up with your favorite TV personalities as they’ll have the best local weather information for your area. We’ll be out chasing along the Red River in Northwest Texas later today.

Full outlook from the Storm Prediction Center

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VALID 221200Z – 231200Z

…THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND PARTS
OF N TX…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
WRN GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL
STATES…

…THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS…

..SUMMARY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO ALONG THE RED RIVER…AND SOUTH TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GULF COAST BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.

..SYNOPSIS

A SPLIT FLOW…BLOCKING SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST…A CUTOFF LOW OVER SRN CA
AND AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT E TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE…A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP E OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SINKING S BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS FRONT SHOULD INTERSECT THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SRN TX PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SRN PORTION OF THE DRYLINE
BULGING E OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY.

..S-CNTRL CONUS

22/00Z RAOBS AND GOES PW IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT THE MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED ACROSS DEEP S TX INTO THE WRN
GULF…CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 14 G/KG PER BRO
RAOB. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY WITHIN
MODEST LOW-LEVEL SLYS AND SHOULD RESULT IN MEAN MIXING RATIOS NEAR
12 G/KG REACHING THE RED RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 16 G/KG
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. THIS INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR BENEATH AN EML PLUME WITH THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PROGGED FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE RED RIVER. BY LATE
AFTERNOON…MLCAPE SHOULD PREDOMINATELY REACH 1500-2500 J/KG.

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGE DURING THE 24-H PERIOD SHOULD BE NEUTRAL TO
WEAKLY RISING WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING. HOWEVER…WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW SUBTLE SRN-STREAM IMPULSES
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION TODAY. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS OK. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY
DISPLACE THE FRONT S AND YIELD ROBUST DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG IT.
AN IMPULSE EVIDENT OVER AZ MAY REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FRONT-DRYLINE INTERSECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED TSTMS
DEVELOPING LATE DAY. ELONGATED/STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WINDS. A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE
TRIPLE-POINT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS ENHANCED NEAR THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM FARTHER E IN N TX THIS EVENING
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE FRONT. LARGE
HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADIC SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER S/SE…GUIDANCE IS QUITE INSISTENT ON A WEAK IMPULSE
EJECTING ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL TX MIDDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS…ANY
ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED. ALTHOUGH
THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEBULOUS…SCATTERED STORMS
MAY FORM BY LATE DAY. WITH SIMILARLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS…A FEW
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. WHERE
EXACTLY THIS OCCURS AND IT HOW EVOLVES E THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD-BRUSH SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK FROM S-CNTRL TX ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.