A tornado watch will likely be issued for portions of thw Big Country and North Texas soon. We’ll be out chasing so be sure to check out our interactive radar to keep on top of things.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO

CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z – 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

SUMMARY…STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN

BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS….ALONG AND S

OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX. WW WILL LIKELY BE

ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION…A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX —

PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS…AS WIDESPREAD

CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX

AND INTO AR. THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL

CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS

EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL

DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL

TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE

OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA…AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS

CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER

SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. AS THIS

LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY

DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT…EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY

ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING

TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS…A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY

SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN

SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE

IS EXPECTED…WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS

GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS…LARGE HAIL

AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED…ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES

WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT

UNCERTAIN…WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED

CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2

HOURS.