I hope you’re enjoying this wonderful evening because it will be the last ‘nice’ weather day until the weekend. I’m not going to get too complicated here because I want to get information out without getting into meteorological jumbo. I may put together a short update after 10 PM when the first evening weather model data begins arriving. Otherwise this post will be to summarize the timing, threats, and overall risk areas tomorrow. I will say that this is a potential significant severe weather risk that will include a tornado threat. Previous events this year have featured large hail and damaging winds with a low tornado threat. Tomorrow the threat for tornadoes will be more significant. That isn’t unusual because we’re in late April here in Texas in the prime for our spring severe weather season. There’s no reason to get worried, scary, or frightened. Knowledge is power and that’s why I’m sharing the latest information with you.
Here is the latest severe weather outlook for tomorrow. An enhanced risk of severe weather is in place across Northwest and North Texas where the threat of severe weather will be most likely. A slight risk runs through West-Central Texas into Central and Southeast Texas.
Timing By early afternoon we’ll likely have thunderstorms underway north of the Red River in Oklahoma north of a cold front. These storms will be elevated above the surface but still capable of producing large hail and gusty winds. By 4 PM they may drift south towards the Red River and post a severe weather threat. Discrete supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop after 3-4 PM along a dryline in West-Central Texas into Northwest Texas. These supercells would likely be severe with the threat of giant hail up to the size of softballs, destructive wind gusts over 70 MPH, and tornadoes. The tornado threat would increase near and after sunset as low level winds increase and cloud bases become lower. These supercells could continue after sunset towards 10 PM with all modes of severe weather possible as they move east into western North Texas.
Threats: The strongest storms may contain giant hail up to the size of softballs, destructive wind gusts over 75 MPH, and tornadoes. The highest tornado threat will occur with dominant supercell thunderstorms near and after sunset. Clusters of thunderstorms would have a lower tornado threat but a significant threat for destructive wind gusts of 75-80 MPH along with hail. Flooding is also possible.
The Texas Tech High Resolution weather model shows several supercells underway by mid-afternoon tomorrow. Here’s what it thinks the radar will look like at 7 PM. If anything I think its undergoing the number of storms. Either way the storms it does indicate are in an environment supportive of significant severe weather. We’ll have a better idea of the overall scenario tomorrow once evening weather model data arrives. Either way plan on being weather aware tomorrow and again on Thursday with another significant severe weather threat possible