In an effort to keep this blog shorter and more to the point I’ll use a bullet point system along with text I wrote earlier this morning concerning today’s setup. Keep in mind that forecasting any sort of weather in Texas (except the heat) is difficult and thus you should check back for updates. We’ll be chasing today so we won’t be posting too much this afternoon. That’s why its always important to have at least two sources of weather information. I’d reccomend your local National Weather Service office which will provide you with up to the minute weather information. We received emails on Friday asking why we weren’t doing ‘minute by minute’ coverage of the storms. The answer is simple – if we’re out chasing we can’t be posting blogs at the same time. I’m usually driving and its typically frowned upon to be typing constantly on a laptop at the same time. Likewise that’s why we spend a decent amount of money every month to bring you a free interactive Texas weather radar right here on our website. With that you’re able to keep up with conditions in your area or across the country on your own. Check it out at texasstormchasers.com/radar
Timing: With little in the way of a cap in place we could see an early start to storms today. Most high-resolution weather models fire up storms just east of the dryline in the Concho Valley just after lunchtime and quickly move them east towards I-35 in North and Central Texas. These storms could be few in numbers but would be supercellular in nature. A second round of storms may fire up just east of the dryline by late afternoon or early evening. These storms could form into a line as they move east impacting much of Interstate 35 from Oklahoma south into Central Texas and eventually Northeast Texas and East Texas late tonight. Thunderstorms may also form by mid to late afternoon along a northward moving boundary near the Red River. These storms could also be severe as they move into Oklahoma.
Threats: Ingredients are there to support the possibility of significant severe weather with the most intense thunderstorms. Discrete supercells this afternoon could produce destructive hail up to the size of baseballs, damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and even a few tornadoes with strong wind shear in place. Clusters or a line of thunderstorms would be more likely to produce widespread wind gusts of 70-80 MPH along with large hail and brief tornadoes. Flooding is possible with very heavy rains due to a very moist airmass. The threat for flooding will be enhanced where we’ve seen heavy rains already over the past few days.
Discussion: The threat for severe weather returns today as a strong disturbance combines with very high moisture amounts to produce an unstable atmosphere. There may be multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms today with the first possibly beginning just after lunchtime. A second round of storms may form in the late afternoon/early evening behind the first round of eastward moving storms. The strongest storms may produce baseball size hail, damaging wind gusts up to 75 MPH, and a few tornadoes. Should we get any sustained discrete supercells a more sustained tornado threat may develop as we’ll have favorable wind shear in place today.
Initial thunderstorm development would likely occur just east of the dryline which can be identified as the western-most sections in the severe weather outlooks. Storms would move east/northeast within a favorable environment for severe weather. We’re going to have to watch things closely because the overall setup is quite favorable for severe thunderstorms – but there are a few uncertainties that preclude a higher risk category at this time. Thunderstorms once again could impact the D/FW Metroplex this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely continue into the overnight hours with a threat of large hail and localized damaging wind gusts.