The dryline will be the focus for severe weather development this afternoon as the upper level disturbance that’s been parked over the four corners region finally begins to move east. A few scattered strong to severe storms across parts of south Texas are likely now through early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, a line of isolated to scattered storms is expected to form along the dryline, which will be stretched from about Vernon down to Sonora, during peak heating this afternoon. After they begin to get going and move east off the dryline, it’s expected they’ll begin to cluster into a quasi-squall line and move east towards central and north central Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours, and into east Texas between 10 and midnight. Timing for the highest threats of severe weather will be from around 4pm to 8pm west of the I-35 corridor. Frequent lightning, hail and downburst winds will be the primary threats, although an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out. As the line of storms moves east during the late evening into the early overnight hours, the severe threat will diminish as we lose daytime heating.
Here’ s a peek at what the radar might might look at various times this afternoon and into the late evening hours. As always, keep in mind this is just what a bunch of math thinks will happen, but it will give you an idea of how things are expected to evolve later this afternoon. We’ll be keeping an eye on things this afternoon and will post updates on our Twitter and Facebook pages once the storms get going.