Moderate to strong thunderstorms, with a few reaching severe limits, will continue to slowly work their way east across the state this evening and into the overnight hours. Additional rain/storm development is likely by early tomorrow morning across parts of southwest and south central Texas as the upper level disturbance that’s been hanging out to the west over the four corners region will finally begin to shift east. The threat for severe weather will wane overnight, but is expected to ramp up again tomorrow afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a large portion of the state under a slight risk of severe weather for tomorrow. Not everyone will see severe weather…or storms for that matter…as the stabilizing effects of rain this evening and overnight plus any remnant cloud cover tomorrow may end up having a significant impact on our instability levels tomorrow afternoon. Current short-range models are showing the potential for some breaks in the existing cloud deck tomorrow afternoon, especially along the dryline which is expected to push east into western north Texas and down through the hill country and southwest Texas. Should that happen, we could see moderate instability levels by the afternoon and the potential for scattered strong to severe storms with hail and high winds as the main threats.
Rainfall overnight will be mainly confined to parts of north central into northeast Texas and across south central and southeast Texas as an existing complex of storms continues to track east. On its heels, additional showers and storms are expected to work their way east across south central Texas tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours. The possibility of heavy rainfall overnight and into tomorrow across south central and southeast Texas will raise concerns for flash flooding, especially for areas where the storms continue to train over one location. High winds in some of the stronger cells is also a concern. The good news is that by Sunday, it looks like we’ll finally have a chance to dry out as a cold front arrives and pushes through the state! Don’t forget, you can always track the storms and warnings on radar via our interactive weather map at https://texasstormchasers.com/radar/ .