This is one of those forecasts that could easily go one of two ways this afternoon across north, central and east/northeast Texas. We could see more isolated supercellular type storms with large hail and tornados…or we could see a squall lines with mainly a wind and flash flooding threat. But which will we get??? We have a strong upper level system approaching from the west. We have a lot of moisture in place. We’ve had a lot of rain this morning, which would normally work to inhibit afternoon development of storms, but in this case may not because the rain that’s falling is a “warm” rain and is not effectively cooling and stabilizing the lower atmosphere like it typically would. We have a lot of clouds in place, which may help to inhibit the destabilization of the atmosphere this afternoon if they stick around. We’ve seen some clearing southwest of the DFW recently…primarily across Johnson, Hood, Somervell and Ellis counties…and if that continues, we could be looking at an area primed for supercell thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours. If that area beings to fill in with additional cloud cover, that may help limit destabilization and we won’t be looking at as much of a threat of supercells or tornadoes. Instead, we’d be looking at development more consistent with squall lines or convective clusters of multiple storms bunched together, and with those, you see more of a high wind, lightning and flash flooding threat. So for now, we continue to monitor in “wait and see” mode. The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center is posted below. I urge anyone within the Enhanced Risk outlook area to pay close attention to the weather this afternoon and have a way to receive weather warnings if any are issued for your area.
About The Author
Jenny joined Texas Storm Chasers in 2011, originally to help out with social media updates, but she has since then become a chaser, blogger and all-around valuable member of the team. It was through chasing that Jenny also discovered her passion for photography. She has four children and is happily married.