Thunderstorm activity has died down for the night across North and Northeast Texas. A few storms have popped up in Central/South-Central Texas but these storms should die down before too much longer. This evening’s weather model guidance has started to arrive and it looks like we’ll be dealing with another round of isolated severe storms again tomorrow. The 0Z 4-KM NAM breaks the cap from just west of the D/FW Metroplex south into the Hill Country/western Central Texas late tomorrow afternoon. The cap will be stronger tomorrow so the chance for storms is lower. However conditions will be more favorable for supercells (organized storms) with very large hail. Any storm that fires up tomorrow afternoon will likely become severe with damaging hail a good bet. Storms would move east/southeast off the dryline before dying out not long after sunset. With a strong cap we may not see storms fire up at all tomorrow – but anything that does go up could do it quickly.
The atmosphere will be strongly unstable with CAPE vaules around 4000. Anything over 2000 is generally quite favorable for severe storms. We’ll also have more wind shear tomorrow compared to today. The overall wind shear today in the lowest 6 kilometers was about 35-40 knots. Tomorrow afternoon we should have 45-50 knots of shear which will be even more favorable for discrete thunderstorms. The strong cap and lack of widespread forcing will keep any thunderstorm development isolated as well as the number of storms low. We may see no storms or one or two fire up tomorrow afternoon. Any storms that fire up could be big boomers with very large hail. I don’t see a high tornado threat tomorrow but when dealing with supercells you can never rule out a brief tornado.