Our thinking has not changed since our update at 10:30 AM. We’re watching three areas of severe thunderstorm potential today. The first is ongoing near Corpus Christi where a large severe thunderstorm is producing hail, gusty winds, and at least one waterspout. The second area of concern relates to a boundary sitting very near Interstate 20 over North Texas. As skies clear and the atmosphere becomes unstable in a weakly capped environment we could see a few storms pop up near the boundary. Conditions are supportive of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
The primary severe weather threat today will develop in the southeastern Texas Panhandle and Caprock later this afternoon. Initial storms that fire up are expected to be supercellular with a risk of destructive hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado threat. As we progress into the early evening storms will move southeast into Northwest Texas just south of the Red River with a continued significant severe weather threat. Eventually a cluster of thunderstorms may evolve in Northwest Texas and continue moving southeast into North Texas towards the D/FW Metroplex. This cluster of storms could contain an enhanced wind damage threat similar to last Thursday. This scenario is shown well with high resolution weather model guidance.