Isolated thunderstomrs may develop after 6 PM through the mid-evening hours across North and Northeast Texas. Should thunderstorms develop they would be in an environment characterized as unstable along with enough wind shear to support organized convection. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe storms to account for this possibility. The strongest storms may produce hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and localized wind gusts over 60 MPH. If thunderstorms do develop we should only see a few of them and this is not expected to become a widespread severe weather issue. Storm movement would be to the southeast with the most likely timeframe for storms (should they develop) being from 7 PM through 11 PM. A strong cap will keep the overall coverage of thunderstorms low meaning we only expect a couple to break through the cap. Those storms that do break the cap could be severe. The afternoon run of the North American Model shows this scenario quite nicely. Don’t take the actual position of storms in this model graphic too literally.
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