Today will be partly to mostly cloudy across all of Texas as the tides of change begin to take hold. High temperatures will be cooler this week, thanks to the increased clouds, but will still be seasonal for late March. Winds will be out of the southeast for most except the Panhandle where southwest winds will be gusty today up to 30 MPH. Across the coastal areas and Southeast Texas we’ll see southeast winds bring higher dewpoint values inland today. These higher dewpoint values will end up in Nebraska and Iowa by Wednesday so that goes to show how quickly it will advect northward. A small chance of a shower will exist today across North, Northeast, and East Texas but overall chances remain below ten percent.
A marginal severe weather risk has been issued from Southwest Texas northward through the Big Country and West-Central Texas for Tuesday. A few severe storms are possible late Tuesday afternoon as a dryline sets up and moisture pools just east of it. Factors against widespread severe weather include weak wind shear and a capping inversion. However the airmass will be quite unstable so any storms that do fire up could be hailers with some localized damaging winds. We’ll take a more in-depth look at Tuesday’s setup in a separate post this evening.