We’re seeing areas of light snow and mist develop across the Texas Panhandle. This is all being caused by increasing upper level lift and the arctic air shoving south. We do have heavier snow developing across the southern Panhandle from Dimmit to Tulia and Clarendon. Sleet is falling south of that from Hart to Silverton, Turkey, and Childress. Freezing drizzle/rain is falling just north of Lubbock in Plainview. Lubbock is just above freezing but should fall under that mark by 10 AM with roads becoming icy quickly.

Rain continues across parts of the South Plains and Permian Basin with another area across the Big Country into North and East Texas. These areas are above freezing and will not see winter weather impacts or accumulations from this precipitation. Your show comes later.

Here’s a look at the current radar and direction of the precipitation.

2015-03-04_9-09-52

Forecast Notes

* Based on the latest data we should see the freezing line move into the northwestern sections of D/FW around 5 PM. Most of D/FW should be at freezing by 9 PM. Interestingly enough most models don’t drop D/FW into the upper 20s but keep them around 30-32 degrees. This could help keep main surface roads a little more clear for the onset of the event.

* Rain will continue this morning into this afternoon across the Hill Country into North and Northeast Texas. Temperatures are above freezing and thus we won’t have winter weather impacts through the afternoon hours.

* Areas of thundersleet and heavy snow are probable tonight in Northwest and North Texas. Sleet accumulations up to 1 inch and snow accumulations up to 4 inches will be possible including inside the D/FW Metroplex.

* A significant winter storm is anticipated tonight in the D/FW Metroplex as well as North and Northeast Texas up towards Texarkana. Roads will quickly go downhill as sleet and snow accumulates. Some thundersleet/thundersnow may occur and those will produced rapid accumulations.

Here’s a simulated radar image for this afternoon from the 13Z run of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Greens are rain, purples are sleet/freezing rain, and blue is snow. Times are in EST up in the top-right part of the graphic.

hrrr_2015030412_ref_tx

I’ll post another update between 10:30 AM and 11 AM with any updated accumulation forecasts along with the latest look as we head into the afternoon hours.