This will be a quick update since I’m packing up the vehicle. Many indications are pointing towards a rather potent line of supercells developing in extreme northeastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri late this afternoon. An impressive jet-streak along with strong instablity will help these storms rapidly fire up around 4 PM. They’ll quickly move east into the unfavorable hilly terrain in southwest Missouri. In addition strong forcing will tend to make storms form into a line. A low tornado threat will be possible with the initial storms along with very large hail. This is when we’ll be targeting them while they’re in their initial discrete phase. At this time I’m expecting to be near Miami, OK at 3 PM and we’ll reposition from there. I’ll set up the computers and live stream after 1 PM.
At this time it looks like the cap will hold in Texas but we can’t rule out one or two strong storms in Northeast Texas late this afternoon. The main severe weather threat will come on Wednesday in North Texas. See this morning’s update for information on that.