Enjoy the warming trend we will have over the next couple of days because it looks like Old Man Winter will open the Arctic trap door by late this weekend, and we’ll be in for yet another sub-freezing blast and perhaps some winter mischief by early next week. Tonight, chilly once again with 20s in the panhandle and 30s across much of the remainder of the state…including as far south as the mid to upper coast. Highs tomorrow will be close to seasonal and range from the upper 60s to low 70s across south/southwest Texas, mid 60s across much of central and west central Texas and mid 50s across north Texas and up into the panhandle.
Strong northwest upper level flow for the next few days will keep us rain-free, but an area of low pressure is expected to drop south across the western US by Friday then trek east over the weekend bringing chances for precip back into the forecast. The precipitation forecast for the weekend and early next week is still refining itself, but it does look like we’ll have at least a slight chance of seeing some rain move into eastern Texas by Friday into Saturday, and perhaps see a few thunderstorms develop across north central Texas on Saturday afternoon ahead of the next cold front. Behind the cold front, we should begin to see a wintry mix of weather impact the panhandle late Saturday into Sunday, then precip may gradually fill in south across west central and western north Texas by early Sunday. Model forecasts 24 to 48 hours ago were giving a definite “thumbs up” for snow clear into north central Texas. Model runs earlier today squashed that by bringing in drier air across north Texas behind the front and shunting most of the surface moisture further south and decreasing mid-level moisture. That said, confidence is not high at this time on the exact evolution of the winter weather associated with this next system. Rest assured, we will keep our eyes on it and let you know as soon as confidence increases. For now, here’s a peek at the latest model forecast for the timing of the next arctic front.