If you watched our video chat with D/FW Scanner earlier this evening you know that we’re in for a tough forecast. An upper level low pressure system is expected to pass over North and Northeast Texas during the morning hours on Wednesday. These cold core upper level lows have a tendency to cause rain to change over to a wet snow because the low has very cold air above the ground. Sometimes that air gets transported down to the ground and causes temperatures to fall to near freezing and rain to change to snow. That’s a distinct possiblity and why a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for North and Northeast Texas for Wednesday morning. Regardless of the outcome we’re expecting precipitation during the morning hours on Wednesday from the Concho Valley and Big Country northeast into North and Northeast Texas. Some of East Texas will probably see precipitation too. The big question is if that precipitation will change over to snow for some folks.

The North American Model (NAM) has rain changing over to snow with 1 to 3 inches of accumulating wet snow across most of North and Northeast Texas including D/FW. The Global Forecast System says it will all stay as rain with some light snow and no accumulations. The track of the upper level low will also be critical because we’re looking at about a 50-100 mile corridor of snow where it tracks. If it shifts north then so will the ‘snow zone’. Likewise a southward shift will cause the chance for snow to shift south into more of Central and Deep East Texas. This is going to be a very tough forecast and I’ll guarantee you we’re going to see forecast changes as we continue into Tuesday. If everything were to come together some of North and Northeast Texas could see heavy thunderstorm on Wednesday morning with localized snow accumulations up to 5 inches. Those kind of snow totals would be local with most folks receiving much less. Surface temperatures would likely be near or just above freezing. Because the snow would likely be wet and heavy it very well could accumulate on roads, bridges, and grass even though temperatures would be just above freezing.

Regardless of the eventual precipitation outcome we’ll see everything exiting Texas by lunchtime. The sun will come out and temperatures will climb into the 40s across North Texas and upper 30s in Northeast Texas. If any snow did accumulate during the morning hours on Wednesday it would melt during the afternoon hours on Wednesday.

Summary | A dynamic storm system will bring the chance for a localized, short-term winter storm to North Texas and Northeast Texas Wednesday Morning. This one has a high ‘bust’ potential meaning if something didn’t come together we may end up with little/no snow. On the other side of the spectrum we may see relatively high travel impacts again on Wednesday Morning on roads before the snow quickly melted during the afternoon hours. The forecast is going to change on Tuesday so be sure to check back frequently for updates.

2015-02-23_20-46-42

image_full3