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Discussion – 

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7:20 AM Winter Storm Nowcast and Morning Forecast

I’m coming up on 20 hours awake now and this cold core upper level low has certainly lived up to its name of being a troll. It looks like the low has moved a bit south of where we expected it to move. That’s why we had more sleet in the D/FW Metroplex and it took longer for it to change over from rain. Unfortunately the sleet has caused several slick spots this morning. The good news is it’ll melt off quickly this afternoon.

We have liquid rain in Deep East Texas with a few lightning strikes. This activity is producing up to two tenths of an inch of rain per hour as it moves east from near Palestine to Livingston, Lufkin, Jasper, to San Augustine.

A large area of rain mixed with sleet and snow continues to impact Northeast Texas, North Texas, and portions of Central Texas this morning. The back edge of this precipitation extends from Gainesville to Decatur to Hamilton. This precipitation is moving east and will be out of the D/FW by 10 AM. Sleet is starting to change over to snow in the D/FW Metro and we may see up to an inch of or two of wet snow before all is said and done. The area of sleet across Central Texas will impact Waco to Temple within the next hour as it moves east. We may see some sleet and snow accumulations and slick spots on roads. Impacts shouldn’t be nearly as severe as in the D/FW Metroplex.

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Northeast Texas and East Texas generally north of Interstate 20 still have the potential of seeing about 1 to 2 inches of snow this morning and early afternoon before precipitation exists the state to the east.

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I will put a blog together this evening that explains what all came together to produce this morning’s winter weather event and why we ended up having sleet versus more snow in North Texas. It’s an interesting question and one I want to find the answer for. It goes to show that Mother Nature does what she wants – and is why we emphasised just that potential in many of our blogs the past few days.

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David Reimer

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