The latest model data is rolling in and, for the most part, has remained consistent with bringing a fast-moving upper level system across north Texas overnight with the potential for brief, moderate to heavy snowfall.   As David mentioned in his post earlier this morning, this forecast has huge bust potential with not all of the forecast models in agreement with each other.  It appears that one of the models (the Global Forecast System – “GFS”) is not picking up on the orientation of a piece of energy at the base of the low pressure system out west that would have the tendency to centrifugally push the base of the low further east a little faster, resulting in a more north/south oriented position over us like the other two forecast models (the 4K NAM and 12K NAM – North American Model) are showing.  The position of this low, once it’s over north Texas, will have a huge impact on how effectively it can draw moisture up from south/southeast of the low and carry that moisture up to the snow producing mid-levels of the atmosphere.  A more north/south orientation of the low would provide more dynamics to draw moisture up and northward, a more east/west orientation would keep most of the moisture further south and east.  At any rate, some of the morning models have completed their runs and so far, the two NAM solutions have stayed pretty much on track with bringing a quick dumping of wet and sloppy snow over north central and northeast Texas tomorrow morning.  The GFS is still the outlier and keeping most of the snow producing potential further south.  I’ll show you these model graphics below, but keep in mind that this could still change between now and tomorrow morning, so don’t get too hyper-focused on snow totals or location of enhanced snowfall just yet.  We’ll have additional updates out this evening and overnight once additional data arrives which hopefully will paint a much clearer picture of tomorrow’s event.

4K NAM thru 18Z 12K NAM thru 18Z Screen Shot 2015-02-24 at 10.41.50 AM


Current 4K NAM Animation

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