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2:30AM Winter Weather & Rain Update

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A solid, but narrow corridor of rain has set up shop from the Permian Basin eastward through parts of the Concho Valley into Central and East Texas. This precipitation is actually training or moving over the same areas and not moving north or south much at this time. Radar is indicating all precipitation is falling as liquid rain but I wouldn’t be shocked if some sleet pellets were mixed in here and there. Surface temperatures for the most part remain above freezing early this morning but we do note that Gatesville has fallen to 32 degrees. The good news is that constant warm air advection is keeping temperatures from falling much if at all this morning. That means we are unlikely to see widespread or appreciable accumulations of freezing rain or sleet this morning before precipitation ends by this afternoon. Locations that do fall into the 31-32 degree range with precipitation falling could see a glazing of ice develop on elevated surfaces including on a few bridges. Overall travel impacts will be minimal this morning. If we had temperatures fall below 30 degrees where precipitation is falling then I would become more concerned about widespread development of ice on roads and bridges. At this time that is not expected to occur. North of the precipitation across North Texas very dry air continues to keep precipitation south of the D/FW Metroplex. While we could see a few sprinkles or sleet pellets north to Interstate 20 this morning the dry air will cause nearly all of any precipitation to evaporate before reaching the ground.

Here’s what the HRRR is showing at 7 AM which lines up quite well with our thinking. Note that all precipitation this morning is expected to be on the light side.

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David Reimer

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