As we’ve been talking about for several days now, a significant drought-denting rain event is in store for us Tuesday and Wednesday…possibly lasting into Thursday as well.  A strong area of low pressure is dipping south just off the California coast this morning which will then swing across northern Mexico, become cut off from the main jet stream and sit and spin over northern Mexico/SW Texas for a few days.  This system as it approaches will pull an abundant amount of moisture into the state ahead of its arrival and set the stage for a multi-day heavy rain event across the state along with severe storm potential in southern parts of the state.

Severe Storm Potential

The SPC has already identified two areas which have the highest potential for receiving severe weather Tuesday and Wednesday.  With the amount of wind shear and instability that will be in place during those times, isolated supercells and tornadoes will be possible in the areas outlined in the graphics below.  Marginally severe hail will also be a threat as well as the typical high winds associated with severe thunderstorms.  Keep in mind these areas could shift just a bit depending upon the exact track of the low which is still flip-flopping a bit.   As always, have your NOAA Weather Radios on so you have a way of receiving any Warnings posted for your area, and please share this info with friends/family in those areas so they have a heads-up.

Tuesday’s Severe Weather Risk Area

spc Tuesday



Wednesday’s Severe Weather Risk Area

spc wed



Rain Potential

At this time, rain is expected to begin across southwestern Texas early Tuesday morning, and continue to spread northeast across the state Tuesday, Wednesday and then exit the northeast on Thursday.  Some areas have the potential of receiving frog strangling amounts of up to 4 inches of rain, with 1-2 inches being the most likely amounts elsewhere.  That said, flash flooding will be an issue in areas that experience the heaviest rains.  These rainfall areas and totals are likely to change…in other words be increased…if this cutoff low sits and spins over the area a little longer than currently projected.   Also wanted to note that both the American NAM and GFS forecast models are still showing track differences in the exact position of the low as it approaches.  Depending upon which model ends up verifying,  it could shift the areas of heavier rain further west, so don’t think the graphic below is exactly where the heaviest rains will end up falling, but for now this will give you a general idea.

rain accumulations thru noon thurs


We will continue to keep you updated on this event as it approaches, but this is certainly good news for so many of the drought stricken areas of the state and especially for our farmers and ranchers!!!  David will have a discussion out later this afternoon and this evening as more model data rolls in.