A strong closed low currently spinning off the Baja coast of California is expected to swing east across northern Mexico today and across the western parts of Texas by Thursday.  This system will be bringing moisture with it and also tapping into abundant Pacific moisture already streaming across the state bringing chances of snow to far west Texas, including western and northern sections of the Hill Country, Thursday and into Friday morning.  Chances of flurries could even be seen southwest of the DFW metroplex west of Waco and south of Stephenville.

A Winter Storm Watch is currently in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday night for several counties in far western Texas (see graphic below).  At this time, the highest amounts of accumulation are expected within the Winter Storm Watch area.  Outside of that area, accumulations of an inch or less is expected.  There are still uncertainties in regards to the track of this system, mainly due to the fact that it will be traversing over an area in which we have no upper air data support from weather balloon launches.  As such, forecast models are just guessing at where it will snow and how much, but experience tells forecasters that lows tracking through this area…plus the cold air already in place, plus the cold air aloft expected with this low…is enough to produce snow for this region of Texas, some of which could be heavy.

We will have more updates on this, so stay tuned!

Current position of the closed low off the Baja coast of Cal/Mexico

current water vapor



Current Winter Weather Watch counties in BLUE

WSW current



Snowfall accumulations projected at this time (probably a little on the high side)

Snow accumulations via GFS