I’ll have a complete forecast update later tonight explaining the latest trends with the weather model data and why it may mean more snow for North Texas. The National Weather Service in Fort Worth just issued their first Winter Weather Outlook for the possible Christmas Storm. Here is their statement…


Winter weather outlook for December 25th…

A strong storm system is expected to move over North Texas on
Christmas day. While this system has been forecast to affect the
region for several days… confidence is increasing that wintry
precipitation associated with this system will fall over portions
of North Texas on Christmas day. Based on the latest forecast
models… the track of this system will move over the Interstate 20
corridor. Assuming this track verifies… this would support a
change over from rain to snow with some snow accumulations for
locations generally along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor
during the afternoon and evening hours on Christmas day. Just
south of the Interstate 20 corridor… a mix of rain and snow will
be possible with little to no snow accumulations possible.

At this time snowfall is expected to be brief… and may only
persist for a few hours. Currently our forecast calls for less
than 1 inch of snowfall for locations along and north of the
Interstate 20 corridor. As the change over to snow
occurs… northwest winds are expected to increase in intensity to
20 mph gusting to 30 mph. Any snow accumulation will blow around
in these winds… which may reduce visibility if traveling after
sunset on Christmas day.

As of this afternoon… this upper level storm system remains over
the open waters of the North Pacific Ocean. There remains a great
deal of uncertainty regarding the exact track and any associated
wintry precipitation falling over North Texas on Christmas day at
this time.

A more northerly track to this system will likely result in little
to no wintry precipitation over North Texas on Christmas day.

A more southerly track to this system could result in a change in
the areal coverage and possible increase in snow accumulations
across North Texas on Christmas day.

Bottom line… wintry precipitation is looking more likely along
and north of the Interstate 20 corridor for the afternoon and
evening hours of Christmas day. Check back for the latest forecast
updates in the coming days as these details are very likely to
change in future forecasts.