Good Afternoon. This is the third discussion posted on the progress of the storm once named Bonnie. This very well may be the final update as it appears that Bonnie is in the process of becoming an open wave, or a complex of showers. Tropical Storm Bonnie made landfall earlier today in Florida and quickly moved across the southern part of the state. What is left of her is now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As you can see in the image above there is no well defined convection and what convection left is located north of the ‘circulation‘. There is some question if Bonnie still has a low level circulation and at this point I would lean towards the side that says she may be declassified later tonight.  The convection over Cuba is not associated with Bonnie. As can be seen by the shear chart below, Bonnie is in an area of 30 knots of shear, which is quickly increasing to 50 knots. Anything that is left will likely be shredded to pieces.

Depending on whether Bonnie survives this the forecasted track of the system. Many models are in agreement so this forecasted path looks good. Even if she is declassified these areas will be affected by the moisture from Bonnie, thus can expect heavy rain.

Based on the strength of the system and the conditions over the Gulf the primary threat would appear to be Heavy Rainfall. This system could produce 3 to 5 inch rain amounts along its path, as shown in the graphic above. There really is not much more to say about this system. If there is any regeneration another discussion will of-course, be posted.


David Reimer