Good Afternoon,
This is going to be a brief update regarding the development of Tropical Depression #3. Obviously the system did gain some organization since the discussion I posted earlier this morning, as NHC decided to upgrade to a TD. Aircraft Recon has been in the system for most of the afternoon and has found that despite its current meager satellite appearance, likely due to the diurnal max, that TD2 has been organizing with the pressure falling from 1008 MB to 1006 MB in about an hour. Here’s the latest image from the recon mission as of the time of this posting. Click the image for a full-sized version.


As of the time of this posting the National Hurricane Center has not found enough evidence to support an upgrade to Tropical Storm Strength (34 Kts). For those who did read this morning’s discussion you noted where I mentioned there was an exceptional amount of wind shear over the system which was preventing any development of a low level circulation. Fast forward 12 hours…

As of 1 PM CDT the shear over the system had dropped over significantly and is continuing to decrease. This should help the system to at least maintain its organization this afternoon into this evening. The forecast regarding the strength of the system remains tricky due to many factors that could come into play later on but its possible, if not likely, that TD2 will become Tropical Storm Bonnie later this evening as it approaches Southern Florida. I’ll have more at the usual discussion time. I’ll leave you with a map of the current advisories as of 2 PM CDT.

David Reimer