It’s just before the despicable hour of six and the sun has not even begun to rise as of the time of this typing. Not exactly the way I wanted to start off the chase, but hey, I can’t sleep so what am I going to do?
Checking data this morning the first thing that pops up is that there is an extensive amount of precipitation and cloud cover over Texas and Oklahoma this morning. Most of Oklahoma has some light precipitation this morning while more vigorous convection has developed over West Texas in the past hour, as shown by the brighter colors in the Infrared map. That convection, and associated cloud cover, will most likely impact areas along and south of Oklahoma City as the morning goes on. That precipitation shield is associated with a disturbance that will move into Oklahoma today and help spark off more convection.
With situations such as this the models have a very hard time keeping up with current trends, thus their projections for later periods are usually out of whack. The same applies to this case, thus It’s going to be more of a hand-analysis type of day to determine where the boundaries are along with the stationary front. Low Level Shear is weak but stationary fronts have a tendency to locally enhance the shear, so if any storm can ‘ride’ the front it will have a brief chance of producing a tornado. It looks like a High Wind Event should commence across Oklahoma later today so that, along with a slightly lower chance of hail, will be the main threats. It should be noted if a sustained supercell can develop the hail threat will temporarily become the most significant threat, and the potential for an isolated tornado will become more likely, especially if its riding the front.
Connor is out of town this week, thus I’ll be out chasing solo today. My plans are to depart around the 9 AM hour. My current thoughts are that North/Northwest Oklahoma will be the best area, but that will be determined by trends later today. I’m likely going to head where clearing has taken place as that will be the area with the most destabilization. There is a chance that convection will fire earlier then anticipated thus I could be ‘chasing’ or heading to intercept a storm by the time I reach Oklahoma City around the lunch time hour, but I would anticipate that the best chances for severe convection to hold off until the afternoon. I’ll be updating the Twitter account regularly (twitter.com/txstormchasers) so stay tuned to that for the latest information. It’s often hard to post a blog update like this one once the chase has started. Both the Live Stream and GPS will be online today so make sure you check them out at our Live Stream Page!