Good Evening,

First off I did end up playing with something I should not have played with again so I’m in the process of getting everything back online. Good thing about this though is I’ve become quite efficient at doing that and every time I end up putting up new content it is better then the last. Still though I’ve made backups so that will not be a problem again.

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Now onto the topic at hand. Starting several days ago the GFS began showing a dip in the <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>jetstreamstrong> to the south. That is unusual, but not unheard of for this time of year. By July the <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>jetstreamstrong> is usually in North Dakota into Canada, but it’s going to dip south for a few days. Tomorrow the <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>windsstrong> at 500 <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>MBstrong> will be 30 to 40 knots over a majority of Kansas. Normally the <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>windsstrong> at 500 <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>MBstrong> will be coming from the west or southwest, but in this case they will be coming in from the Northwest. This is refereed to as a Northwest Flow Event. Normally storms in this environment are quite HP but also are slow movers. North Texas had several days under a northwest flow back in June of 2009. I captured a tornado on June 12, 2009 out in Palo Pinto county from a HP storm under this type of setup.

[<strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>captionstrong> id=”” align=”aligncenter” width=”800″ <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>captionstrong>=”Winds at 500 <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>MBstrong> (18,000 Feet)”][/<strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>captionstrong>]

The above graphic is a deception of the forecasted <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>windsstrong> at 500 <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>MBstrong> at 7 PM CDT Sunday from tonight’s 0Z NAM.. As you can see the <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>jetstreamstrong> is taking an unusually strong dip to the south providing at least 35 knots of wind at 500 <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>MBstrong>. This will allow for organized convection, including supercells.

[<strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>captionstrong> id=”” align=”aligncenter” width=”800″ <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>captionstrong>=”Surface Based Instability at 7 PM Sunday”][/<strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>captionstrong>]

In most cases during the summer months the <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>jetstreamstrong> is very weak to non-existent, thus all you normally get is weak ‘popcorn’ type convection. With the presence of strong instability in those setups you can normally get strong downdrafts that can cause localized damage, such as the situation proved earlier this week in Grand Prairie and Arlington, Tx. However, when you combine the extreme instability of the summer with adequate wind shear, as will be present <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>tomorrowstrong>, you can have some of the most impressive storms of the year. The surface based CAPE for <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>tomorrowstrong> will likely be over 5000 J/Kg depending on the amount of morning precipitation. Combined with the favorable shear for supercells there will likely be a few significant events <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>tomorrowstrong> in Kansas involving hail much larger then baseballs along with downburst <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>windsstrong> in excess of 80 MPH. However in the presence of such significant instability there is always a chance of a tornado or two. The low level shear is weak, but there may be just enough to spark off some low level rotation. I still have not made my final choice on going <strong class=’StrictlyAutoTagBold’>tomorrowstrong> however it is becoming more likely that I will. In the event I do I will most likely be streaming from the roof cam along with providing updates on the social media accounts.

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Stay Tuned – Ill be updating the Facebook/Twitter accounts throughout the night.

– David Reimer