For this evening, we expect ongoing showers and thunderstorms to gradually diminish as we lose daytime heating. Best chances for isolated to spotty residual rain activity will be along the coast/coastal plains up into east and southeast Texas. As our next cold front approaches from the north overnight, we will also see an uptick in chances for rain/thunder across the panhandle along and behind the frontal boundary.
The timing of the front is a bit uncertain at this time, but they do have a habit of traveling a little faster than what the models show, so here is our best guess at this time. Amarillo and Lubbock before 10am tomorrow…Wichita Falls around 11am…DFW between 11am and 1pm…Waco and central Texas after 4pm. Based on current models, it looks like a reinforcement of cooler and drier air will arrive after dark tomorrow and really drive the front towards the coast by early Saturday morning. Along and ahead of the front tomorrow will be the best chances for rain and storm activity…especially across central and south central Texas as the front pushes through there during peak daytime heating. We aren’t expecting widespread severe, but we could see a few stronger cells with gusty winds and heavy downpours. We will take another look at the potential frontal timing and storm chances and update that early tomorrow.
Lows tonight, mild and in the 70s across a majority of the state. Pleasantly cooler temps will reside across the panhandle and over into west Texas. Tomorrow’s highs will still be quite warm out ahead of the front…but once it passes…take a look at the forecast lows for Friday night and highs for Saturday! Not bad at all!
Toasty Forecast Before Cool Front Late Next Week
Friday, 24 July 2015 05:57
Hot and mostly clear skies will be the story once again today. In the weather forecast that continues in a recurring loop we will see the same forecast continue for another 6 days or so. By late next week a breakdown of the upper level ridge should allow for a cool front and perhaps rain chances by next Thursday-Friday. Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s today. Laredo will top out at 104 degrees, Houston at 96, Tyler and Wichita Falls at 99, and Amarillo at a toasty 97 degrees. Heat index values will be 2 to 8 degrees hotter than the air temperature. Dangerous heat index temperatures of 102 to 108 degrees are expected during peak-heating in the shade this afternoon along and east of Interstate 35. A rouge shower will be possible in the Alpine and Davis mountains – otherwise rain is not expected today. Temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 70s tonight. Parts of the D/FW Metroplex and Houston may not get below 80-81 degrees tonight with heat index values staying close to 90 degrees.
Exceptional Drought Returns to D/FW Metroplex
Thursday, 02 October 2014 09:32
The D/FW Metroplex is now in exceptional drought conditions which is the most significant drought level. The last time D/FW was under exceptional drought conditions was back in October 2011. With the driest September on record its not hard to grasp how the drought has become so bad again in D/FW. Wichita Falls has been dealing with the same issue for over a year now as Northwest Texas also continues in an exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions continue in parts of the Hill Country and Texas Panhandle.
Now for the good news: Over a quarter of Texas is officially out of the drought with this week’s update. All of Southwest Texas, much of the Rio Grande Valley, and Southwest Texas are all doing better and have been removed from all drought designations. That does not mean the drought can’t come back quickly if the faucet shuts off. With above average precipitation expected in this winter with a weak El Neno there remains hope we can continue to erode drought conditions and start adding water back to our lakes.
Text summary from the United States Drought Monitor and USDA. The South An inch or more of rain fell in parts of the South, with locally 3 inches or more in western and southern Texas. These rains, and rains from previous weeks, helped replenish soil moisture and refill reservoirs, so D0-D3 were contracted in the west and south. On a statewide basis, little change occurred in the topsoil and subsoil moisture conditions, with 53% of topsoil and 61% of subsoil in Texas short or very short of moisture, and 31% of the pasture and rangeland in poor to very poor condition. This is because the week was dry to the north and east, where soils continued to dry and reservoir levels fall, so D1-D4 expanded in parts of north central and northeast Texas and the Texas panhandle. Dallas-Fort Worth had the driest September and ninth driest year-to-date on record. Further to the north, conditions deteriorated in Oklahoma, where 65% of the topsoil and 74% of the subsoil were short or very short of moisture, and 20% of pasture and rangeland were rated poor or very poor. The bone-dry soils in many areas, accompanied by dried up ponds and, in the panhandle, blowing dust, worried agricultural interests. The fact that more (greater percentage) subsoil was dry to very dry compared to topsoil indicated that the region never fully recovered from the drought of 2011-2012. D0-D4 were expanded in several areas across the state.
Saturday’s Weather Roundup – Cold Front pushing through North Texas
Saturday, 06 September 2014 09:43
Good morning and happy Saturday! A weak and shallow cold front is currently pushing through north Texas and into the DFW metro area. It will continue to slowly drift south during the day today, eventually stalling and phasing out in the Waco vicinity. Behind the front, temps are currently in the 50 to 60 degree range across the panhandle and south rolling plains. Highs out there today will remain cool due to extensive cloud cover that is expected to keep the area socked in until tomorrow. Here’s a look at the current radar image showing a broad area of rain continuing to impact parts of the south rolling plains and up into western north Texas around Wichita Falls, Vernon and then further south towards Snyder.
Best chances of rain today will be across western north Texas this morning, then shifting south between DFW and Waco and over into west central Texas by later this afternoon. Scattered showers are also expected once again along the coast as a little disturbance travels southwestward over the area. Overall very similar to what’s been experienced the past couple of days. Some of these showers could become strong with gust winds and frequent lightning. Can’t rule out an isolated funnel cloud or two with the amount of moisture still impacting the region. Across far west Texas, best chances for seeing heavy rain will occur later this afternoon then into the overnight hours, then again on Sunday. Flash Flood Watches have been posted for a majority of the west Texas counties and include the cities of El Paso, Pecos, Ft. Davis, Marfa and Presidio.
Highs today will obviously be impacted by both the front and any showers/storms. Overall though, not too bad with the highest readings average in the mid 90’s across the southern half of the state. Nighttime lows will be quite cool across western Texas, the panhandle and western north Texas. We’ll start to warm up again by Monday, but we are still on track to receive a much stronger cold front by the end of this next week, so hang in there!
Wednesday’s Weather Roundup – Hot and Dry for Most, Rain Southeast and Panhandle/West
Wednesday, 27 August 2014 08:00
Happy Wednesday everyone! Still a hot one, but temps are starting to mellow out just a bit with a few less 100 degree highs showing up on the state-wide forecast grids. Still muggy and quite warm though, with some 100’s scattered across north central Texas and down into southwest Texas. Overnight, the most pleasant lows will be found across the panhandle and western portions of the state with warm and muggy 70’s elsewhere.
Rain chances continue to be on the uptick for the weekend. Here’s the latest precipitation accumulation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. This is what is expected to fall between now and early Monday morning. While not everyone across the state will benefit from much rain with this next weather system, we are certainly glad to see so much rain forecasted for parts of the panhandle, and especially northwest Texas in and around Wichita Falls where drought is still at its worst. I heard on our local news this morning that Wichita Falls will begin cloud seeding again this week. Their reservoirs are currently running at around 25% of capacity, some lower than that even, so any amount of extra rain they can squeeze out of the atmosphere will be welcomed.
Best rain chances today…panhandle and also across coastal areas thanks to a low pressure system currently sitting just off the coast. This area of low pressure is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for additional development; however, further development into any sort of tropical system is unlikely. It’s expected to just meander around along the coast for the next several days bringing daily chances of rain to this area through Saturday. Some areas may experience flooding issues over the next several days, so if you live in a flood-prone area down there, you’ll want to pay attention to your local forecast sources and keep an eye on water levels.
That’s it for this morning’s quick roundup! We’ll try to get something out later tonight with our thoughts on the more widespread rain chances expected Friday and Saturday once the latest forecast models arrive after 7pm, so be on the lookout for that this evening.