July was a welcome respite from the extremely active April, May, and June experienced in Texas. Unlike those three months, we did not have any tornado outbreaks, historic flash flooding, or tropical cyclones impact our state. It is not a surprise that temperatures have warmed up in the absence of widespread rain and cloud cover. Typically, the hottest temperatures are experienced in early August before average temperatures begin to slowly fall. Even though an El Nino is in place we still have typical seasons – including the dreaded summer. I think you’ll find that even though it’s been warm, this summer has nothing on the ones from 2011 or 2012. The dry weather wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. Flooded locations have been able to dry out and work on recovery. On the other side of the spectrum the Texas Panhandle and the Concho Valley received above average precipitation. Amarillo and San Angelo experienced flash flooding at points in July along with rises in local tributaries. Far West Texas, including El Paso, had several days of thunderstorms with the monsoon in full force during the early and middle parts of the month.
July and August typically are the hottest two months in Texas. It should not come as a surprise that it was hot this month. Compared to the summers of 2011 and 2012, this year doesn’t even compare in terms of heat or drought. Most of Texas will end the month with slightly below or at average temperatures for July. East and Southeast Texas were slightly above average in the temperature department likely due to higher dew point/humidity values. No doubt July was hot but in terms of Texas heat we’ve been lucky this summer.
Let’s take a look into our August weather prospects. Weather model guidance indicates that our upper air pattern will remain fairly stagnant for the first ten days of August. The primary upper air flow and Jetstream will remain well to our north in the Dakotas and Northeast United States. A heat ridge or area of high pressure will keep our weather hot, humid, and with no widespread chances for rain. Temperatures will remain around the levels they’ve been at for the past two weeks into the first week of August. Depending on which weather model you use it looks like the heat ridge may begin to weaken towards the middle of August. Anything farther out than ten days is weather model voodoo land and typically will change from run to run. An experimental ultra long-range weather model keeps the heat ridge in place through most of August. That same experimental model does show some relief by the last week of August with a pattern change. I wouldn’t bet a penny on it but we can all hope.
Remember that Mother Nature has a mind of her own. We can try all we want to accurately forecast, but in the end always expect the unexpected.
July 16, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup & Daily Forecast
Thursday, 16 July 2015 06:46
Another summer day with the same forecast as the last. These are the days that the forecasts run together and we see little day to day change. Sunny skies and overhead high pressure will once again result in a quick warmup. Temperatures by lunchtime will be in the lower 90s. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 90s across all of Texas. Those that don’t will climb into the lower 100s. The ‘how it will feel’ temperature will be around 105 degrees across Northeast and East Texas this afternoon with higher humidity values. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon in the Texas Panhandle. Gusty winds will be a decent bet near the stronger storms.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and Hill Country. Mid to upper 70s will be noted elsewhere with heat index values in the lower 80s. Again nothing unusual for July. Temperatures will increase this weekend with several locations in Texas likely to top 100 degrees. Chances for rain remain low for the next several days.
July 8, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup
Wednesday, 08 July 2015 06:41
Along with the chance of showers we will see cooler temperatures across parts of Texas today. Compared to the usual summertime heat the Texas Panhandle and West Texas are going to be ‘chilly’ today with high temperatures in the lower 80s. Upper 80s to lower 90s will be common across the Permian Basin east across the Hill Country into Southeast Texas. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will top out in the 90s to lower 100s. Heat index values across Southeast and South Texas will top 100 degrees as humidity values will be higher.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and the Permian Basin. Scattered storms will be possible across the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and the Red River Valley from Bonham west to Quanah. Locally heavy rain will result in the possibility of some flash flooding. Severe weather in the form of hail or damaging winds should be quite limited.
The northern half of Texas will see comparatively cooler temperatures compared to the previous few weeks. Folks in the Panhandle and West Texas will drop into the mid to upper 60s along with the higher elevations of the Davis and Alpine Mountains. Upper 60s to lower 70s will be noted in the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, and North Texas. Mid 70s across South-Central and East Texas with upper 70s across Southeast, Deep South Texas and the RGV. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible this evening and overnight in the Panhandle into extreme West Texas.
By this weekend and next week a high pressure will build in shutting off most of our rain chances. We could still have the usual popup storms in the afternoon near the sea breeze – but otherwise summertime temperatures will return to Texas. In fact we’ll likely see the warmest weather of the year so far.
July 5, 2015 Texas Stormy Weather Roundup
Monday, 06 July 2015 06:26
Weather over the next few days will return to an ‘interesting’ phase before we begin the hottest stretch of summer so far this year. Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and especially tonight across parts of our wonderful state.
Lets start off chatting about temperatures for this afternoon. If you guessed it was going to be hot today you would be correct! THe western half of Texas will warm into the mid to upper 90s with the eastern half of Texas in the low to mid 90s but with higher humidity values. Heat index temperatures will approach 100 degrees in the eastern half of Texas today while those out west will have slightly less humidity.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon across the Texas Panhandle into West Texas. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. Locally heavy rain is also expected. Thunderstorm coverage will increase tonight as lift increases with an upper level storm system. Locally heavy rain and strong storms will be the main threats with the activity tonight. Rain chances continue on Tuesday across West Texas, the Permian Basin, and Northwest Texas. Activity will spread into North Texas Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
Rain forecast through Wednesday Night from Weather Prediction Center
July 1, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup
Wednesday, 01 July 2015 06:23
Good Wednesday Morning and welcome to July! Its hard to believe that Independence Day is this upcoming Saturday. Typical summer weather is forecast including the chance for afternoon thunderstorms this weekend. We’ll have more on your July 4th forecast in upcoming blogs. As for today the tune remains the same. Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again by late morning into the afternoon hours. For today the highest storm chances will be along the Gulf Coast from the Rio Grande Valley northeast through the entire Texas coast. As the sea breeze moves inland we’ll see storm chances increase across Deep South Texas, South-Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and East Texas. The stronger storms may produce downburst winds up to 60 MPH and locally heavy rain. All thunderstorms produce dangerous cloud to ground lightning. I do believe storms will remain south of the D/FW Metroplex today so hopefully we can break the ‘string of storm days.
Outside of rain-cooled air by this afternoon temperatures will certainly make you believe its July. Low to mid 90s will be the rule of the day with heat index values closer to the 97-100 degree range. The hottest temperatures today will be in the Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas where upper 90s to perhaps 100 degrees will occur. Nothing unusual tonight with low temperatures dropping into the 70s combining with humid conditions. Welcome to July folks!