Tag Archives: Tropical Storm

Typical August Weather Today; Watching Tropical Storm #Erika

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After three days of thunderstorms producing localized wind damage across parts of the state we’re going to see coverage die down today. Central, South-Central, and Southeast Texas still have a 10 to 20 percent chance of storms this afternoon. Compared to the 30 to 40 percent chances on Monday and Tuesday we’ll see less activity today. By tonight rain chances will be near zero across all of Texas.

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Temperatures will climb into the 90s this afternoon with 100-101 degrees across the Permian Basin and Deep South Texas. Another decently cool night across Northeast Texas later on wiht low 60s. Mid to upper 60s across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas plus the Alpine Mountains. Everyone else will be in the mid 70s for overnight lows into Thursday morning.

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Tropical Storm Erika remains relatively disorganized this morning east of the LEsser Antilles in the Atlantic. Several hurricane hunter flights have been keeping a close eye on the system. Wind shear and bouts of dry air are keeping the system from organizing. We do not anticipate much in the way of strengthening over the next two days as Erika continues to struggle for life. I would not be surprised to see the system succumb to wind shear and degenerate into a tropical wave.

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However if Erika does survive the next two to three days (which is a 50/50 chance) then Southern Florida has a real threat of being impacted by the storm. As Erika moves north of the Dominican Republic this weekend conditions will become much more favorable for development. By Sunday Night the National Hurricane Center has Erika on miami’s doorstep as a hurricane. There remains considerable uncertainty with this storm or even if it will survive the next two days. Without a doubt though a lot of folks will be keeping a close eye on things. I recommend you do the same if you’re heading to southern Florida this weekend or early next week.

All Eyes on Tropical Storm Erika…

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I’ve been saying most of the summer that it does not matter how many tropical systems we get this season because it only takes one storm. The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Erika to be a hurricane in the Bahamas by late Saturday Night. There remains considerable uncertainty over the track and potential intensity of Erika. There are some weather models that weaken Erika and make it a relative non-issue. Other weather models make Erika a potent hurricane by the end of the weekend. The same weather models also diverge on the eventual track of Erika. At this time I do feel confident in saying this will not be a Texas threat. Most likely this system will not even get into the Gulf of Mexico. On the other side of the spectrum parts of Florida and folks in the Bahamas will need to watch this system carefully. The first hurricane hunter aircraft to investigate this system will arrive this afternoon to give us our first good look inside the storm. Forecasting tropical systems is nearly as difficult as forecasting winter weather in Texas – things change and can change fast. There is no need to go cancel vacations or anything like that yet. Even though this will not be a Texas threat we’ll be watching it closely and posting updates.

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

…TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.6N 49.4W
ABOUT 840 MI…1355 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and
Anguilla.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Montserrat
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba
* St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.4 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed
are expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropical Storm Erika is Born in the Central Atlantic

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Tropical Storm Erika has formed about 955 miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Central Atlantic Ocean. This system is moving west quickly at 20 MPH and strengthening is anticipated over the coming days. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Erika towards Puerto Rico and north of the Dominican Republic by Friday. The long-range forecast has Erika approaching the Bahamas to near Cuba on Saturday as a strong tropical storm, just under hurricane strength. Conditions aren’t overly favorable for strengthening but we’ll have to keep a close eye on this system over the coming days. I’m not worried about a Texas impact at this time.

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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015

…TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 955 MI…1535 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Erika. Watches may be required for a portion of the Leeward
Islands early Tuesday.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.7 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Buoy observations and satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. Earlier this evening, NOAA buoy 41041 reported
sustained winds of 45 mph with a gust to 51 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
buoy is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Continued risk for Flooding and Tornadoes Today

FWD

FWD

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* At 6:30 AM the area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Bill were located very near Waco. This storm system continues to trek to the north/northwest. We should see a slowing of movement and the low will be sitting on the D/FW Metroplex around noon. By 10 PM it should be very near Gainesville – so essentially it’ll slam on the breaks this afternoon.

* Moderate to heavy rain continues in the D/FW Metroplex this morning. We should see the rain tamper down from widespread coverage down to scattered (50% or so) by early afternoon. Localized flooding will be possible.

* Isolated tornadoes will be possible along and east of the low pressure system – so along/east of Interstate 35/35W. Any tornadoes that develop will likely be weak, short-lived, but could spin up very quickly.

* While we’ve been lucky with flash flooding so far in the sense we haven’t had much – remember most of the water that’s falling will runoff into area lakes and rivers. Those remain full from the May rain so we’ll see an increase in their levels – possibly back up to major flood stage in some circumstances.

* Rain chances will continue into Thursday for portions of North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. Localized pockets of flooding will be possible from that activity along with a continued threat of isolated tornadoes.

* The best way for you to keep up with conditions near you along with current weather warnings is by utilizing our free interactive weather adar located on our website at www.texasstormchasers.com/radar

4 AM Texas Weather Update

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* The center of circulation associated with the remnants of Bill is located about 40 miles south of Waco. Movement is to the north/northwest around 13 MPH.

* So far we’ve been able to keep flooding issues at relative bay. As the storm system begins to slow down later this morning in North Texas that may change. Localized flooding will be possible. If we se a heavier band set up shop or start to see training the threat for flooding will rapidly increase.

* The heaviest rains being produced by the system are located over the northern semicircle with another feeder band east of the center. About 1 to locally 2 inches of rain per hour are being observed.

* Rain will continue across North Texas this morning.

* It looks like dry air has spared most of South-Central Texas and Southeast Texas from heavier rains. They ended up on the ‘clean’ side of the system. Usually we’ll see the west side of a storm much drier versus the east side of the storm. The east side of the storm is called the ‘dirty’ side.

* After sunrise and by late morning we’ll see showers and thunderstorms increase across East and Southeast Texas. Isolated tornadoes and locally heavy rain are possible. Some flood threat will also exist but should be more localized.

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