Tag Archives: Tropical Storm

Continued risk for Flooding and Tornadoes Today

FWD

FWD

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* At 6:30 AM the area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Bill were located very near Waco. This storm system continues to trek to the north/northwest. We should see a slowing of movement and the low will be sitting on the D/FW Metroplex around noon. By 10 PM it should be very near Gainesville – so essentially it’ll slam on the breaks this afternoon.

* Moderate to heavy rain continues in the D/FW Metroplex this morning. We should see the rain tamper down from widespread coverage down to scattered (50% or so) by early afternoon. Localized flooding will be possible.

* Isolated tornadoes will be possible along and east of the low pressure system – so along/east of Interstate 35/35W. Any tornadoes that develop will likely be weak, short-lived, but could spin up very quickly.

* While we’ve been lucky with flash flooding so far in the sense we haven’t had much – remember most of the water that’s falling will runoff into area lakes and rivers. Those remain full from the May rain so we’ll see an increase in their levels – possibly back up to major flood stage in some circumstances.

* Rain chances will continue into Thursday for portions of North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. Localized pockets of flooding will be possible from that activity along with a continued threat of isolated tornadoes.

* The best way for you to keep up with conditions near you along with current weather warnings is by utilizing our free interactive weather adar located on our website at www.texasstormchasers.com/radar

4 AM Texas Weather Update

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* The center of circulation associated with the remnants of Bill is located about 40 miles south of Waco. Movement is to the north/northwest around 13 MPH.

* So far we’ve been able to keep flooding issues at relative bay. As the storm system begins to slow down later this morning in North Texas that may change. Localized flooding will be possible. If we se a heavier band set up shop or start to see training the threat for flooding will rapidly increase.

* The heaviest rains being produced by the system are located over the northern semicircle with another feeder band east of the center. About 1 to locally 2 inches of rain per hour are being observed.

* Rain will continue across North Texas this morning.

* It looks like dry air has spared most of South-Central Texas and Southeast Texas from heavier rains. They ended up on the ‘clean’ side of the system. Usually we’ll see the west side of a storm much drier versus the east side of the storm. The east side of the storm is called the ‘dirty’ side.

* After sunrise and by late morning we’ll see showers and thunderstorms increase across East and Southeast Texas. Isolated tornadoes and locally heavy rain are possible. Some flood threat will also exist but should be more localized.

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*

4 PM Summary on Tropical Storm Bill

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At 4 PM the center of Tropical Storm Bill is located 25 miles west of Port O’Connor or 90 miles west/southwest of Freeport. The storm is moving northwest at 9 PM. Things have remained comparatively calm this afternoon. That’s going to change tonight as the low continues to move northwest and actually becomes more organized. Very heavy rains will develop on the north and eastern side of the system and dangerous flash flooding probable. Spinup tornadoes will also be a threat in those same areas of the storm. I’ll have a more detailed timing forecast out after 5 PM. For now I’ll leave you with a forecast radar projection from the HRRR weather model for tonight. Times are in the top-right portion of the graphic and are in eastern time (so subtract an hour).

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TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

…BILL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD…
…FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…28.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM W OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM WSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES

Early Morning Tropical Update – Formation of Tropical Storm “Bill” Likely Today

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As of 2am this morning, invest 91 was upgraded to an 80% chance of tropical storm formation within the next 48 hours.  While the system continues to look a bit unorganized, it’s remains likely that we will see tropical storm “Bill” by the end today or overnight tonight.  The forecast track for the system still remains unclear and is highly dependent upon the strength and position of an upper level high building across the southeastern US at this time.  Once the system makes landfall…currently estimated to be on Tuesday…it will ride along the western periphery of the high pressure ridge which means the location of the ridge at that time will be the determining factor.  Some of the latest forecast models coming in are pushing the track just a bit further west from previous, which means the potential for the system to impact the I-35 corridor.  Previous tracks took it mainly east of I-35 with heaviest impacts across southeast, east and northeast Texas.  At any rate, ALL gulf coast residents…especially those from Corpus to Beaumont will need to carefully monitor this system and begin to prepare now for moderate to high-impact flooding along the coast and inland after the storm makes landfall.   Please continue to check back for updates throughout the day!

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the broad
area of low pressure over the south-central Gulf of Mexico has
changed little over the past several hours.  The system's
circulation is not well-defined, and the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.  The low continues to
produce tropical storm force winds well to the east and northeast of
the center.  Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more
favorable while this system moves northwestward during the next
day or two across the western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm could form during that time.  A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this morning.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of
the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast
Monday night and Tuesday.  There is also a risk of heavy rainfall
and possible flooding across portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana.  For additional information, please see High Seas
Forecasts and products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

 

Now a 60% Chance of a Tropical Depression Developing in western Gulf of Mexico

13/18Z Tropical Model Guidance - NOT A FORECAST - MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY

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The National Hurricane Center designated the area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula as Invest 91L earlier this afternoon. An invest is an area of investigation that is weaker/less organized than a tropical depression. The primary reason for the ‘invest’ term and designation is to allow tropical-specific weather models to start running. The brand new tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of development to 60% before the system makes landfall in Texas. I want to emphasis we are not expecting this to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane. At most this may become a weak tropical storm with only minor tidal surge and wind impacts. While I’m not concerned about a storm surge or wind damage this system will bring an incredible amount of moisture ashore with it. The eventual track of this system will determine where the heaviest rains fall – but there is certainly the potential for five to ten inches of rain in parts of East and Southeast Texas with this system. That’s a ‘higher-end/worst case’ scenario at this time.

13/18Z Tropical Model Guidance - NOT A FORECAST - MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY

13/18Z Tropical Model Guidance – NOT A FORECAST – MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY

Here’s the first run of the tropical weather model’s for this system. We’ll have the evening runs out after 9 PM. Keep in mind this is not an official forecast and only model guidance. Still they’re pretty clustered adn confident on an Upper Texas coast landfall by early next week. They do diverge on timing with some being faster and others being slower. Regardless several factors will determine the storm’s eventual track not only while its in the Gulf of Mexico but once its in Texas as well. I am confident this will be a Texas landfall and a Texas storm. Typically we’ll see the heaviest rains along and east of the center’s track but that will also depend on how organized the system becomes. In all likelihood this will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with winds of 35-45 MPH. We will have to watch out for tornadoes east of the center along with the heavy rain and flood potential. I’ll have more information on it all in a blog post later this evening.

https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/posts/893565784042236

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