The folks at the National Hurricane Center are monitoring the development Invest 92L in the Atlantic…halfway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Probability of formation into a Tropical Storm within the next 48 hours has been upped to 50% as it continues to show signs of organization and increasing wind speeds, near tropical storm force, close to the center of its (forming) circulation. Should it form, it will become Tropical Storm “Bertha” But, we all know that means it has a 50% chance of not becoming a tropical storm! Nevertheless, we’ll continue to monitor this as it does have the potential to track into the Gulf of Mexico should it form. Below are the latest satellite imagery and current forecast track. It’s still way too early to get excited about this storm, but with rather hot and boring weather anticipated for Texas over the next week, it’s at least something to keep us entertained!
An area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is sitting about 230 miles east of St. Augustine, Florida this evening. Surface pressures have slowly been falling today and environmental conditions are marginally favorable for continued development. Most indications are that development of a Tropical Depression is likely early this week. From there it could strengthen into a tropical storm. With only marginal conditions in place this will be a slow developing system. The main impacts for the next few days will be scattered thunderstorms across Florida as is normal for summer afternoons. Increased swells could be noted across the Atlantic seaboard as we head later into the week.
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine, Florida, remain
limited. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next few days and a tropical
depression is likely to form by mid-week while the system moves
slowly southward to southwestward off the east-central coast of
Florida. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
Weak steering currents mean Invest 91 will slowly meander off the east coast of Florida for the next few days. As an upper level ridge builds in across the Atlantic the system could begin to move towards the north/northeast later this week. If Invest 91 has developed into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm as expected than this could cause inclement weather across parts of the eastern seaboard. With July 4th later this week we know that many of you will be traveling out east. At this time I’d advise not to let this system cause you to adjust your travel plans. While increased rain chances may occur in Florida and parts of the eastern seaboard we don’t expect it to be a wash-out. We’ll continue to monitor Invest 91 and post updates this week as needed with the latest information and forecasts. While I do expect this system to become a Tropical Depression or Storm later this week the chance of it becoming a hurricane seems low at this time. Should this system become a Tropical Storm it will be named Arthur and the first storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
This system will have no impact on our weather or shore conditions in Texas.