Tornado Warning for central Newton County in Southeast Texas and northwestern Beauregard Parish in southwestern Louisiana until 1:30 PM. Radar detected strong rotation and a possible developing tornado just south of Call. This storm will cross Highway 87 south of Bon Weir and potentially pass near or just south of Merryville, LA. This storm has the potential to become a problem maker as it moves into Southwest LA.
TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1243 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA… EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS… CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…
* UNTIL 130 PM CST
* AT 1243 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CALL…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
HAZARD…TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR… TROUT CREEK AROUND 1255 PM CST. BON WEIR AND BIVENS AROUND 110 PM CST. MERRYVILLE AROUND 120 PM CST. JUNCTION AROUND 130 PM CST.
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS…IN A MOBILE HOME…OR IN A VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that they will likely be issuing a tornado watch for parts of Southeast Texas within the next few hours. Conditions are becoming more favorable for the development of a few severe thunderstorms. The primary threat in Southeast Texas would be quarter size hail and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. The tornado threat will increase as storms approach the Louisiana border with the highest tornado threat in Louisiana and Mississippi. Severe storms should exit Texas to the east by 4 PM but we could continue to see sub-severe storms in Northeast and East Texas through early this evening.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 211659Z - 211900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SE TX AND WRN TO CNTRL LA WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.
A Couple Severe Storms Possible in Southeast Texas through Mid-Afternoon; Much Cooler Tonight & Friday
Our primary focus this morning will be on the severe weather threat in Far Southeast Texas through early this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 2 risk of severe weather along and east of a San Augustine-Lufkin-Livingston-Galveston line. A Level 1 risk runs along and east of Interstate 45 from Madisonville south to Houston. The main risk timeframe will be from about 10 AM through 3 PM. Sub-severe storms will be possible from now through mid-afternoon across Northeast Texas and East Texas. These storms will be elevated above a stable surface layer. A few stronger cores may produce small hail but otherwise the severe weather threat will be low.
12Z HRRR – Simulated radar at 11 AM This Morning
12Z HRRR – Simulated radar at 12 PM This Afternoon
12Z HRRR – Simulated radar at 3 PM This Afternoon
Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in far Southeast Texas later this morning. These storms may take a while to get their act together as they move east/northeast. For that reason I’m expecting the primary threat to be quarter size hail and localized damaging wind gusts. Most folks won’t be dealing with severe weather today – but we’ll have to watch out for a few discrete storms. We’ll have to watch any established supercell as it approaches the TX/LA border in case it tries to develop low-level rotation. As the storms move east into Louisiana and Mississippi by this afternoon they could become more intense with a tornado risk. Fortunately for our state the timing of the system will preclude a more significant severe weather risk.
12Z HRRR – Simulated Radar at 6 PM This Evening
Showers and a few storms will remain possible through late this afternoon across Northeast Texas and East Texas. Some storms may produce small hail and localized heavy rain. A few spots in East Texas may pick up a quick half inch of rain before activity exists to the east by late afternoon. Tonight will be mostly dry across Texas.
Some of these high temperatures will likely occur during the morning hours as a cold front pushes south today.
In the wake of the storm system a cold front will continue to push south across all of Texas. By tonight it should be into the Gulf of Mexico with north/northwest winds across all of Texas. Temperatures will be much cooler tonight and on Friday with low temperatures ranging from the mid 20s in the western third of Texas up to the mid 40s in the Rio Grande Valley. Cities along I-35 and I-45 will drop into the 30s tonight. Friday will be chilly unless you’re south of Interstate 10 where temperatures will at least make it into the 60s.
A Few Severe Storms Possible This Evening; Snow in the Panhandle
I expect most of the daytime hours will be capped with thunderstorms holding off until near or after 5 PM. The experimental HRRR weather model run seems to show the situation well. Several of the past model runs (hourly) begin to develop thunderstorms around the Houston Metro at about 5 PM. Storms would move northeast around 25-35 MPH and expand in both intensity and coverage east of Houston towards Nacogdoches. By 9 PM it looks like several showers and thunderstorms may be underway from near Longview south into Southeast Texas to Beaumont. Activity should continue to move east and exit Texas by midnight. The strongest storms this evening could produce hail up to the size of half-dollars (1.25″ in diameter) and localized wind gusts of 50-60 MPH. The tornado threat is very low but if we were to have a brief tornado it would likely be in Southeast Texas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Category 2 risk extended further north into East Texas with the strongest storms capable of producing hail this evening.
Chance of precipitation through this afternoon. Click image for full-resolution version.
Chance of precipitation through this evening and tonight. Chance of precipitation through this afternoon. Click image for full-resolution version.
Chance of precipitation through on Saturday. Chance of precipitation through this afternoon. Click image for full-resolution version.
Widespread severe weather is not expected with this event but there will likely be a larger area of rain and sub-severe storms. Rain totals across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas will likely be in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range. No rain accumulations is expected along or west of Interstate 35. A trace to around a tenth of an inch of liquid-equivalent precipitation is possible across the Texas Panhandle through Friday – most of that will fall as snow.
Snow will likely begin to fall across the western Texas Panhandle later this morning. By early afternoon snow will likely be underway across the Northwest Texas Panhandle into the northern Panhandle. Temperatures will be near or just below freezing at that point. Widespread snow will continue through early this evening across the northwest half of the Texas Panhandle. By midnight snow will have decreased in coverage with pockets of light snow possible across all the Panhandle into the Caprock. Snow accumulations up to five inches will be possible across the Northwest Texas Panhandle. A dusting of snow up to an inch will be possible from Amarillo and points west and north. Some of this snow will likely accumulate on roads creating slick conditions this afternoon into tonight.
Friday’s Forecast – Warm, Some Storms…Then Colder and Snow
Friday will present a mixed bag of weather conditions across the state. A moderately strong Canadian cold front will begin to move through the panhandle early tomorrow bringing a chance of snow and wintry mix along with it during the day on Friday and through Friday night. Ahead of the front, temps will be quite warm with the chance for afternoon and overnight storms across east and southeast Texas as an upper level system arrives. That’s the Friday forecast in a nutshell. Now for some of the details…
Snow is expected to begin early tomorrow morning across the northwestern portion of the panhandle spreading east during the day and overnight. From Amarillo northward, mostly snow is expected as temps are forecast to be right at about freezing for much of the day. Between Amarillo and Lubbock, the precip will start off as rain, then transition to snow once the temps drop to freezing by late afternoon into the early evening hours. For the rolling plains, mainly rain until after midnight when the temps here will finally dip below freezing. All winter weather issues should be heading east and out of the area by early Saturday morning. Highest accumulations will be across the northwestern Texas panhandle and western OK panhandle where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6am Friday to 6am Saturday for the counties of Cimarron, Texas, Dallam, Sherman and Hartley. This includes the following cities: Boise City, Keyes, Guymon, Dalhart, Stratford, hartley and Channing.
Further south tomorrow morning, widespread patchy dense fog will be likely once again across much of the Hill Country, South Texas, Southeast Texas and east Texas…so be prepared for that as you head out to work or school tomorrow morning. Temps will be quite warm tomorrow afternoon with upper 60s to low 70s expected as far north as western north Texas, north central and northeast Texas. Further south, mid to upper 70s will be likely across south Texas, with low 70s across southeast and up into east Texas.
This degree of surface heating in combination with a moderate return of gulf moisture, plus lift from the approaching upper level disturbance, will set the stage for a few strong to severe storms to develop tomorrow afternoon and evening. A moderate amount of instability is expected across southeast up through east central Texas tomorrow afternoon where moisture levels will be highest. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by tomorrow afternoon across parts of central Texas and southern north Texas, with additional development across southeast and east Texas by late evening and into the overnight hours. There’s still questions about the timing of the best lift from the approaching upper level system coincident with daytime heating, but we could see a couple of marginally severe storms develop with gusty winds and small hail as the main two threats. The threat for tornado development is not likely. We’ll be taking a look at the latest forecast model data starting to roll in as I type, and we’ll have another update out by tomorrow morning, so be sure to check back with us! For those on the warm side of the state tomorrow, enjoy it because we’ll be back to more winter-like conditions by Saturday and into early next week!