Tag Archives: texas

At LEAST 9 Tornadoes Confirmed from December 26 Outbreak

SnapShot

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has published a preliminary finding on their storm surveys from today. Due to the number of possible tornadoes and the overall scope of the event it’ll take a couple more days to survey all damage areas. The strongest tornado struck Garland and was rated an EF-4. This was the first EF-4 tornado in Dallas county since the Lancaster tornado back in 1994. That was the first EF-4 tornado in the month of December to ever impact Texas. Finally this was the first EF-4 tornado to strike the United States in December since December 16, 2000.It goes without saying yesterday’s event was historic. The Garland tornado continued into Rowlett and eventually Collin County. Another significant tornado struck northern Ellis county and southern Dallas county. Other tornadoes impacted more towns and will be surveyed in Monday. A total of eleven individuals were killed with dozens injured. Hundreds of structures were destroyed and many lives were changed forever. Once the surveys are complete I’ll compile a post with specific survey graphics for each tornado. Since the results are still preliminary I’ll leave you with the report text.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR DECEMBER 26TH TORNADO EVENT…

.OVERVIEW…SEVERAL TORNADOES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OF SATURDAY DECEMBER 26TH. THE STRONGEST TORNADO PRODUCED
EF4 DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF GARLAND…AS WELL AS EF3 DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF
ROWLETT. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED A CONTINUOUS PATH OF DAMAGE FOR APPROXIMATELY
13 MILES IN DALLAS AND ROCKWALL COUNTIES. THE TORNADO CAUSED 8 FATALITIES
MOST OF WHICH NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 30 AND THE PRESIDENT
GEORGE BUSH TURNPIKE. TWO TORNADOES WERE CONFIRMED IN COLLIN COUNTY…NEAR
COPEVILLE…WHERE EF2 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED BY NWS SURVEY CREWS. TORNADO
DAMAGE WAS ALSO OBSERVED NEAR BLUE RIDGE…WHERE EF0 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED.
TWO FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN COPEVILLE…AND ONE FATALITY WAS
REPORTED IN BLUE RIDGE.

IN TOTAL…THERE HAVE BEEN NINE CONFIRMED TORNADOES AND 11 FATALITIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE 26TH. NOT ALL OF THE TORNADO
DAMAGE HAS BEEN SURVEYED AND ADDITIONAL SURVEYS ARE PLANNED FOR MONDAY.
ALL TIMES LISTED ARE APPROXIMATE AND WILL BE FURTHER REFINED. AS OF SUNDAY
NIGHT…THESE ARE THE CONFIRMED TORNADOES FROM THE 26TH. THIS NUMBER MAY
GO UP WITH FURTHER SURVEYS.

.HUBBARD TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70-80 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 203 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3N HUBBARD / HILL / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 209 PM CST
END LOCATION: 6N HUBBARD / HILL / TEXAS

.OVILLA / GLENN HEIGHTS TORNADO…

RATING: EF-N/A
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: N/A MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: N/A MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: N/A YARDS
FATALITIES: UNKNOWN
INJURIES: UNKNOWN

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: N/A
START LOCATION: N/A

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: N/A
END LOCATION: N/A

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO CAN BE CONFIRMED DUE TO SPOTTER REPORTS.
SEVERAL AREAS FROM MIDLOTHIAN TO GLENN HEIGHTS WILL BE SURVEYED ON
MONDAY

.ENNIS TORNADO…

RATING: EF-N/A
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: N/A MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: N/A MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: N/A YARDS
FATALITIES: UNKNOWN
INJURIES: UNKNOWN

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: N/A
START LOCATION: N/A

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: N/A
END LOCATION: N/A

SURVEY_SUMMARY: TRAINED SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO APPROXIMATELY
3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENNIS ON THE EVENING OF THE 26TH. THIS AREA WILL
BE SURVEYED AS WELL ON MONDAY.

.EUSTACE TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 40 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 2:44 PM CST
START LOCATION: 2NE EUSTACE / HENDERSON / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 2:47 PM CST
END LOCATION: 3NE EUSTACE / HENDERSON / TEXAS

.SULPHUR SPRINGS TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.5 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 5:33 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3 S SULPHUR SPRINGS / HOPKINS / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 5:34 PM CST
END LOCATION: 2S SULPHUR SPRINGS / HOPKINS / TEXAS

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO WAS OBSERVED AND PHOTOGRAPHED BY
TRAINED SPOTTERS.

.EMORY TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.0 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 75 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 5:22 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3NE EMORY / RAINS / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 5:23 PM CST
END LOCATION: 3NE EMORY / RAINS / TEXAS

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO WAS OBSERVED AND REPORTED BY TRAINED
SPOTTERS.

.SUNNYVALE / GARLAND / ROWLETT…

RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 170-180 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 13 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 550 YARDS
FATALITIES: 8
INJURIES: 7+

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 6:45 PM CST
START LOCATION: SUNNYVALE / DALLAS / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 7:05 PM CST
END LOCATION: LAKE RAY HUBBARD / ROCKWALL / TEXAS

.COPEVILLE TORNADO…

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115-125 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 7.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 2
INJURIES: N/A

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 7:28 PM CST
START LOCATION: COPEVILLE / COLLIN / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 7:42 PM CST
END LOCATION: 2NW FARMERSVILLE / COLLIN / TEXAS

.BLUE RIDGE TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70-80 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 80 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: N/A

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 7:48 PM CST
START LOCATION: 1SE BLUE RIDGE / COLLIN / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 7:52 PM CST
END LOCATION: 2NE BLUE RIDGE

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0…WEAK……65 TO 85 MPH
EF1…WEAK……86 TO 110 MPH
EF2…STRONG….111 TO 135 MPH
EF3…STRONG….136 TO 165 MPH
EF4…VIOLENT…166 TO 200 MPH
EF5…VIOLENT…>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

Historic Blizzard Ramps Up Tonight with Crippling Impacts

2015-12-26_5-31-50

2015-12-26_5-31-50

A crippling and probably historic winter storm will impact the western half of Texas beginning tonight. This winter storm will produce blizzard conditions with travel becoming impossible across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling Plains, into the Permian Basin. Winter weather accumulations are possible across Northwest Texas, the Concho Valley, Big Country, Far West Texas, and western North Texas. There will be the potential for light snow in North Texas, including the D/FW Metroplex, on Monday but accumulations are not expected. We’ve been talking about this system for days so I’ll forgo the full discussion. Below is a list of accumulation, timing, and impact information based on geographical regions of Texas.

Texas Panhandle

AMA_morning

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
503 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY…

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-261930-
/O.CON.KAMA.BZ.W.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOISE CITY…KEYES…GUYMON…BEAVER…
FORGAN…DALHART…STRATFORD…SPEARMAN…GRUVER…PERRYTON…
BOOKER…HIGGINS…FOLLETT…HARTLEY…CHANNING…DUMAS…
BORGER…MIAMI…CANADIAN…VEGA…AMARILLO…PANHANDLE…
WHITE DEER…PAMPA…SHAMROCK…WHEELER…HEREFORD…CANYON…
CLAUDE…CLARENDON…WELLINGTON
503 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY…

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…6 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS.

* WIND CHILLS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS…IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS…MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

South Plains and Rolling Plains in West Texas

morning_lbb

image_full4

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

…HISTORIC BLIZZARD POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND…

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PULL
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A
PROLONGED WINTER STORM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
MONDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND COULD SUSPEND TRAVEL ALTOGETHER.
MOTORISTS WHO CHOOSE TO TRAVEL IN THESE CONDITIONS WILL RISK
BECOMING STRANDED IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS.

TXZ021>044-261800-
/O.CON.KLUB.BZ.W.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1500Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FRIONA…BOVINA…FARWELL…DIMMITT…
HART…TULIA…SILVERTON…QUITAQUE…MEMPHIS…CHILDRESS…
MULESHOE…LITTLEFIELD…OLTON…PLAINVIEW…CEDAR HILL…
MATADOR…ROARING SPRINGS…PADUCAH…HACKBERRY…MORTON…
LEVELLAND…LUBBOCK…RALLS…CROSBYTON…LORENZO…SPUR…
DICKENS…DUMONT…FINNEY…GROW…GUTHRIE…DENVER CITY…
PLAINS…BROWNFIELD…TAHOKA…O`DONNELL…GRAHAM…POST…
JAYTON…ASPERMONT
1151 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

…BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM
CST MONDAY…

* TIMING…A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY SNOW LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. VISIBILITY FROM FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW TOTALS…WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. IN THESE
AREAS SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS…UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF SLEET AND ICE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

* COLDEST WIND CHILLS…WILL RANGE FROM -5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.

* IMPACTS…PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY ARE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CANCEL THEM ALTOGETHER. POWER OUTAGES
ARE LIKELY. ENSURE A SUFFICIENT SUPPLY OF FOOD RESERVES AS RURAL
AREAS MAY BE ISOLATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. PLAN A MEANS TO KEEP
WARM WITHOUT COMMERCIAL UTILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS EXTREMELY LOW VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL CREATE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND CAN MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…
HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU AND ENSURE YOUR FUEL TANKS
ARE FULL. IF YOU GET STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Permian Basin into Far West Texas

maf_morning2

morning_maf

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
321 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO…THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN…AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY…
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY…

.A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOW. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INITIALLY AS RAIN
AND TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY.
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
WIND WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AND ALSO CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL ACROSS WEST TEXAS OR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

TXZ046-047-051-262200-
/O.UPG.KMAF.WS.W.0008.151227T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KMAF.BZ.W.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
DAWSON-BORDEN-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LAMESA…GAIL…STANTON
321 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY…

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING…SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW COULD DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 8 TO 14 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS GREATER THAN 5
FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR 0 DEGREES AT
TIMES.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND COULD
BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN THESE CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS…MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-050-258-262200-
/O.CON.KMAF.BZ.W.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
ANDREWS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…QUEEN…ARTESIA…CARLSBAD…
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP…TATUM…HOBBS…LOVINGTON…EUNICE…JAL…
SEMINOLE…ANDREWS…GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP…PINE SPRINGS
321 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 /221 AM MST SAT DEC 26 2015/

…BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY…

* TIMING…SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW COULD DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…WIDESPREAD 8 TO 14 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS GREATER THAN 5 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO
DEGREES AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND COULD
BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN THESE CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS…MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

TXZ048-052-053-057>063-067>070-074-075-079-080-262200-
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.W.0008.151227T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
SCURRY-HOWARD-MITCHELL-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SNYDER…BIG SPRING…COLORADO CITY…
VAN HORN…PECOS…MENTONE…RED BLUFF LAKE…KERMIT…ODESSA…
MIDLAND…GARDEN CITY…MONAHANS…CRANE…MCCAMEY…RANKIN…
BIG LAKE…ALPINE…FORT DAVIS…FORT STOCKTON…PRESIDIO…MARFA
321 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM CST MONDAY…

* TIMING…SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW COULD DROP TO NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO 10
DEGREES AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS ROADS BECOME ICY AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCES
VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Concho Valley and Big Country

sjt_morning

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
401 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE
NORTHWEST CONCHO VALLEY…

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY…
PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND…EASTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU.

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND…BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET
AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING…WITH SLEET MIXING WITH RAIN FARTHER EAST.
BY SUNDAY EVENING…PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN
TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS…ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

TXZ049-054-064-065-071-098-113-127-262215-
/O.CON.KSJT.WS.W.0003.151227T1200Z-151228T1500Z/
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-IRION-HASKELL-JONES-TAYLOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROTAN…ROBY…SWEETWATER…
STERLING CITY…ROBERT LEE…BRONTE…MERTZON…HASKELL…
STAMFORD…ANSON…HAMLIN…ABILENE
401 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO
9 AM CST MONDAY…

* TIMING…6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT…TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW RESULTS IN TREACHEROUS ROADWAYS. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW…
SLEET…AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

TXZ066-072-073-076-077-099-114-128-139-262215-
/O.CON.KSJT.WS.A.0004.151227T1800Z-151228T1500Z/
RUNNELS-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-THROCKMORTON-
SHACKELFORD-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BALLINGER…WINTERS…SAN ANGELO…
EDEN…OZONA…ELDORADO…THROCKMORTON…WOODSON…ALBANY…
CLYDE…BAIRD…CROSS PLAINS…COLEMAN
401 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING…

* TIMING…12 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT…SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA…AS A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CHANGES…TO SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING.

* OTHER IMPACTS…NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MAY CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Northwest Texas into adjacent sections of Oklahoma

oun_morning1

oun_morning2

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY…

.A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS… WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND OR ICE
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS. MOST OF
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD END MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037-TXZ083>085-087-262130-
/O.CON.KOUN.WS.W.0003.151227T0000Z-151229T0000Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-KNOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BUFFALO…ALVA…ARNETT…WOODWARD…
CHEYENNE…TALOGA…WEATHERFORD…CLINTON…ELK CITY…SAYRE…
CORDELL…HOLLIS…MANGUM…HOBART…ALTUS…FREDERICK…QUANAH…
CHILLICOTHE…CROWELL…VERNON…MUNDAY…KNOX CITY
347 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST MONDAY…

* TIMING…LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT…NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINED SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WITH
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS…STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT IN WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WINDS MAY
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT… SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION…ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES
NOW.

AVOID TRAVEL. BE SURE YOU CAN TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOUR
FAMILY IF YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-
PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-COTTON-WICHITA-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CHEROKEE…MEDFORD…PONCA CITY…
FAIRVIEW…ENID…PERRY…WATONGA…KINGFISHER…GUTHRIE…
STILLWATER…ANADARKO…YUKON…EL RENO…MUSTANG…
OKLAHOMA CITY…CHANDLER…CHICKASHA…PURCELL…NORMAN…MOORE…
SHAWNEE…LAWTON…DUNCAN…PAULS VALLEY…WALTERS…
WICHITA FALLS…SEYMOUR…ARCHER CITY…HOLLIDAY…LAKESIDE CITY
347 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON…

* TIMING…LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT…COMBINED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…
ESPECIALLY BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE… ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

* OTHER IMPACTS…STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT IN WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THESE WINDS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED
NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE REGION…EVEN IF ONLY
LIGHT ICING AMOUNTS OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION…ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES
NOW.

North Texas (west of Interstate 35)

10154029_950564668313480_4164009478086893855_n

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
506 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS…

.WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129-261915-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0003.151228T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
MONTAGUE-YOUNG-JACK-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOWIE…NOCONA…GRAHAM…OLNEY…
JACKSBORO…BRECKENRIDGE…MINERAL WELLS…CISCO…EASTLAND…
RANGER…GORMAN
506 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* LOCATION…THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF
EASTLAND…JACK…MONTAGUE…STEPHENS…PALO PINTO AND YOUNG.

* TIMING…AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE…SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS…1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE

* TEMPERATURES…IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT…BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SURFACE
STREETS WHERE SNOWFALL IS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS…STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY WHEN
SNOW IS FALLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT MINOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE STORM SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED TO THE
THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Your Sunday Forecast & Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather late Monday

TX_swody2

Good morning and happy Sunday!  Just a quick update for everyone on the outlook for today, plus a first look at the Enhanced Risk of severe weather for late Monday into early Tuesday.  Light rain showers continue in a band stretching from west Texas into western north texas this morning.  We expect this will be the trend today with additional showers and a few isolated thundershowers to develop and traverse this region of the state today and into tonight.  For today, here’s an overview of the rain chances and a peek at the simulated radar of how things may look over the next 15 hours.  Why 15?  That’s as far out as this particular model reaches… 😀

hrrr_2015111513_ref_tx

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.33.09 AM Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.33.23 AM Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.32.33 AM Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.32.43 AM

The severe weather threat for tomorrow is increasing.  The Storm Prediction Center upgraded the outlook to an Enhanced Risk for the period from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.  Very strong dynamics will be in place by Monday afternoon with a strong system overhead, plenty of moisture, a crashing cold front and sufficient instability and shear to produce a chance for isolated supercell thunderstorms to develop across parts of the eastern panhandle, northwest Texas and west central Texas by Monday evening.  During the late afternoon/early evening timeframe, when the storms are more isolated, there will be a threat for a few tornadoes.  As we get into the 7 to 9pm timeframe, these storms are expected to quickly evolve into a squall line of strong storms along the leading edge of the cold front and blast east across the northern half of the state and towards the I-35 corridor within the midnight to 2am timeframe.  Greatest threats with this line of storms will be the potential for very strong winds and damaging hail.  Crazy as I may be, I’ll be chasing this Monday evening, but David will be manning the weather desk and will provide updates for everyone throughout the night.

TX_swody2

99.39% of Texas OUT of Drought Conditions!

20151110_TX_trd

What a year this has been for the drought in Texas. It was obliterated back in May and June but rapidly returned for the summer months. We were getting slammed by questions about El Nino and why it hadn’t shown up. I believe the past few weeks have clearly shown that El Nino is present. With the rains over the past couple of weeks the drought has once again been all but obliterated from Texas. The brand new drought monitor has 99.39 percent of Texas out of an official drought designation! An intense storm system is expected to bring a widespread precipitation event to Texas early next week so we’re not done yet!

The following statement accompanied the updated drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center.

The Southeastern Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Adjacent Southeast

Moderate to heavy precipitation fell on most of this region. Most areas from the Mississippi/Ohio Confluence southward through the Lower Mississippi Valley, southeastern Oklahoma, and eastern Texas reported at least an inch of precipitation, with 2 to locally over 5 inches measured in a swath from southern Missouri into northwestern Arkansas, plus an area farther south extending from southeast Oklahoma and northeastern Texas eastward through southern Arkansas, much of Louisiana, and some parts of Mississippi outside the areas of abnormal dryness and moderate drought. Large areas of improvement were introduced in the wetter areas, and most other areas were unchanged; however, D0 was expanded into parts of eastern Arkansas, southwestern Tennessee, and northwestern Mississippi that missed most of the precipitation. The eastern half of this area received only 50% to 75% of normal rainfall in the last 30 days, and deficits of 4 to locally 6 inches have accumulated since early September.

Looking Ahead

During November 12-16, the heaviest precipitation should fall on windward slopes in western Washington and northern Idaho. Peak values of 12 to nearly 18 inches are anticipated in the northwesternmost reaches of Washington while totals may top 6 inches in northernmost Idaho. Substantial totals are also expected in western Oregon and far northwestern California, with amounts topping out in the 2 to 4 inch range along the Oregon Coast. Relatively heavy precipitation is also anticipated across the northern half of the Great Lakes, with 2 to 3 inches forecast in northwestern Wisconsin and adjacent areas. Meanwhile, moderate precipitation (with amounts above 2 inches only in a few isolated locations) is expected across the northern half of New England and New York, far southern Florida, the southeastern Great Plains and western Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. Temperatures should average well above normal (5 to 10 degrees) in the northern half of the Plains and much of the Great Lakes Region. In contrast, temperatures should average around 3 degrees below normal in the Great Basin and central Intermountain West.

For the ensuing 5 days (November 17-21), the odds at least slightly favor wetter than normal conditions nationwide, except in a small part of the northern Plains and in a swath across the Big Bend of Texas, southern sections of Arizona and New Mexico, and central and southern California. All of Alaska has enhanced chances for above normal precipitation as well. The best chances for wetness are in the southern half of the Mississippi Valley. We should see warmer than normal temperatures on average in the central and eastern parts of the country and cooler than typical conditions from the Rockies westward.

Another Multi-Day Heavy Rain Event Starting Friday

The weather across Texas is going to be much calmer tonight and for the first half of this work week. However the calm weather isn’t going to last for more than a few days. It now appears likely that an upper level low pressure will move into the Southwest United States this week. By Friday its possible this cutoff upper low could be sitting on the Arizona/New Mexico border. A cutoff low means its disconnected from the jetstream and not being influenced by the strong steering currents. These pesky upper level lows can be a pain to forecast due to their unpredictable nature. All of that is a fancy way of saying we’re still several days out from the event and you can most definitely expect forecast changes. Nothing is written in stone yet.

While confidence is low in the eventual placement of the low it does look likely that we’ll see a return of rain and storms across parts of Texas by Friday. At this time those rain/storm chances look to continue into Saturday which just so happens to be Halloween. We’re six days away and I won’t even waste your time by trying to give you more specific rain/timing chances. Just know that it looks like another multi-day potentially heavy rain event is possible beginning Thursday Friday and continuing into Saturday, possibly Sunday. The timing aspect of the forecast is expected to change as we get closer to the event and forecast confidence increases.

2015-10-25_19-30-24

One of the main reasons I’m talking to you about a potential precipitation event five days out is the chance of another significant rain event. Moisture levels look to be quite high again and both the American and European weather models are showing some locations receiving several inches of rain. At this time the Weather Prediction Center is indicating the potential for 3-5+ inches of new rain on Friday through Sunday across North Texas, Central Texas, and Southeast Texas. That kind of rain on already saturated soil would result in another episode of flooding. Rivers are running high but should at least be on the decline by the end of the work week.

2015-10-25_19-46-54

The forecast will certainly change between now and later this week. Strength of the upper level low along with its location will determine where the heaviest rains set up and how much rain those locations may see. Based on the latest weather model data there is the possibility of another flash flood/heavy rain event in the Friday-Sunday timeframe. Check back for forecast updates this week.

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