Record Rains in Abilene with More Heavy Rain Expected through Wednesday in TX
Tuesday, 07 July 2015 12:27
July 7, 2015 is now the wettest day on record for Abilene. At 11:09 AM they had received 6.58 inches of rain for the day. That means today is the wettest day on record for Abilene. The previous record was 6.54 inches back on May 11, 1928. Rain continues to fall and the rain total will continue to rise today. It goes without saying that significant flooding is a problem in Abilene and surrounding areas with numerous water rescues in progress since this morning.
Flash Flood Watches continue into Wednesday for the Permian Basin, Big Country, Northwest Texas, and western North Texas as rain chances will continue into Wednesday. Some locations may receive an addition 4 to 6 inches of rain by the time this event concludes tomorrow.
Flooding will remain a concern in areas that have already received heavy rain today along with other locations where any training storms set up shop. Training thunderstorms are storms that redevelop/back build and move over the same location. On a radar loop it’ll look like a stationary band of heavy rain.
River flooding and lake rises will occur in and downstream of locations that receive several inches of rain. That means the water rises around Abilene will move downstream and impact locations downstream of the Big Country this week. Some lakes out that way are actually still low so that is good news for those water sources.
Additional potential rainfall accumulations
July 5, 2015 Texas Stormy Weather Roundup
Monday, 06 July 2015 06:26
Weather over the next few days will return to an ‘interesting’ phase before we begin the hottest stretch of summer so far this year. Thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon and especially tonight across parts of our wonderful state.
Lets start off chatting about temperatures for this afternoon. If you guessed it was going to be hot today you would be correct! THe western half of Texas will warm into the mid to upper 90s with the eastern half of Texas in the low to mid 90s but with higher humidity values. Heat index temperatures will approach 100 degrees in the eastern half of Texas today while those out west will have slightly less humidity.
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon across the Texas Panhandle into West Texas. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. Locally heavy rain is also expected. Thunderstorm coverage will increase tonight as lift increases with an upper level storm system. Locally heavy rain and strong storms will be the main threats with the activity tonight. Rain chances continue on Tuesday across West Texas, the Permian Basin, and Northwest Texas. Activity will spread into North Texas Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
Rain forecast through Wednesday Night from Weather Prediction Center
July 3, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup + Independence Day Forecast
Friday, 03 July 2015 06:27
The next two days will feature active weather including the possibility of severe thunderstorms. With tomorrow being July 4th we definitely will concentrate on giving the best forecast for those planning to be outdoors. Remember that all thunderstorms produce dangerous and potentially deadly cloud to ground lightning. When thunder roars go indoors – meaning get off the lakes or outdoor areas and into a structure or your vehicle.
Scattered thunderstorms (20-40% coverage) will be possible today across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, and North Texas. Numerous thunderstorms (50%+ coverage) are possible today across Northeast Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20% coverage) will be possible along all of the Texas coastline, East Texas, and Southeast Texas thanks to the seabreeze and usual afternoon dynamics. The strongest popup afternoon thunderstorm could produce locally significant microburst winds.
A more organized severe weather threat is possible across North and Northeast Texas this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Level 2 risk out of a 1 to 5 scale system. A level 1 risk extends from the Texas Panhandle through Northwest Texas and East Texas. The main concern with the most organized storms this afternoon will be damaging straight-line winds up to 70 MPH, hail up to the size of quarters, and very frequent cloud to ground lightning. There is a nonzero tornado risk – meaning the risk for tornadoes is very low, but not zero, today. Thunderstorms will tend to decrease in intensity after sunset but we could see storms continue into the nighttime hours as well.
Our temperature forecast is the same as it was yesterday and the day before that. We’ll see high temperatures in the 90s this afternoon across all of Texas. Outflow winds from nearby showers/storms will cool some folks off into the 80s by this afternoon. Heat index values will approach 100 degrees in some locations.
The chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into Independence Day as we remain in an active weather pattern. That is not to say it will be a washout by any means – but there will be issues to deal with for some. The highest chance for nearby showers and thunderstorms will be across Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and generally along and east of Interstate 35 in Central and South Texas. A few storms will also be possible along the Red River Valley. Some storms could be strong with damaging wind gusts and hail.
I know the main question for us is how will the weather be for the fireworks tomorrow night. The good news is we will see thunderstorm chances decrease by and after sunset. A majority of folks will be dry and in good shape for fireworks. However parts of Northeast Texas and East Texas could still be dealing with Mother Nature’s own fireworks during the evening and overnight hours. I believe most of Texas will easily be able to get their firework shows in with no problem. A few unlucky locations will likely have to delay their shows. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for firework shows tomorrow evening. It’s going to be the usual Texas warm – but nothing crazy hot.
July 1, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup
Wednesday, 01 July 2015 06:23
Good Wednesday Morning and welcome to July! Its hard to believe that Independence Day is this upcoming Saturday. Typical summer weather is forecast including the chance for afternoon thunderstorms this weekend. We’ll have more on your July 4th forecast in upcoming blogs. As for today the tune remains the same. Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again by late morning into the afternoon hours. For today the highest storm chances will be along the Gulf Coast from the Rio Grande Valley northeast through the entire Texas coast. As the sea breeze moves inland we’ll see storm chances increase across Deep South Texas, South-Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and East Texas. The stronger storms may produce downburst winds up to 60 MPH and locally heavy rain. All thunderstorms produce dangerous cloud to ground lightning. I do believe storms will remain south of the D/FW Metroplex today so hopefully we can break the ‘string of storm days.
Outside of rain-cooled air by this afternoon temperatures will certainly make you believe its July. Low to mid 90s will be the rule of the day with heat index values closer to the 97-100 degree range. The hottest temperatures today will be in the Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas where upper 90s to perhaps 100 degrees will occur. Nothing unusual tonight with low temperatures dropping into the 70s combining with humid conditions. Welcome to July folks!
Strong Storms Expected Later Today & Tonight with Weak Cold Front
Friday, 26 June 2015 13:40
A weak cold front currently located across the southern Texas Panhandle east into southern Oklahoma will continue to slowly move south this afternoon. Winds north of the boundary are out of the north with only a minor temperature drop. This boundary will become a focal point for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.
There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon with storms that fire up on that boundary. They’ll also make progress south. The strongest storms will be capable of producing 1.00-1.25″ diameter hail along with wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rain are always threats with summer storms. The threat for severe weather will lower late this evening as storms push closer to Interstate 20.
I believe the Texas Tech WRF has a good handle on what we can expect through late tonight so I’ll share a few simulated radar images. As usual don’t expect things to look exactly like what the weather model shows.