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Our Thoughts on the “Hype” Surrounding the 4/26 Severe Weather Event

For days leading up to yesterday evening, the various forecast models were spitting out solutions that looked downright scary.  Solutions that we don’t always see each Spring which elevated concerns about a potential tornadic outbreak across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.  The media, like it always does, latched onto that from the beginning and continued to spread the message that something really really bad could happen. And we did have a few bad things happen…namely the three tornadoes that touched down in Grayson county last night (EF-1 in Whitesboro, EF-1 in Howe, and an EF-0 in Bells).  For the residents impacted by that storm, the forecast for dangerous tornadoes verified. For the rest of us, not so much…and now forecasters are under fire for over-hyping the event by getting the forecast all wrong.  In the storm chasing community, we call it the Hype Train…and everyone was onboard, including us.  Why? Because it really could have happened.

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There were so many ingredients in place yesterday which made the atmosphere quite volatile…more volatile than we typically see in April.  But, as always, the devil is in the details, and not all those details can be picked up by any of the forecast models until just shortly before or as the event unfolds.  Uncertainty was continually part of the message conveyed by the Storm Prediction Center in their Severe Weather Outlooks for yesterday’s event.  Uncertainty about how far east the dryline would migrate…uncertainty about how far south into Texas the threat would extend given the colossal cap in place early on…and considerable uncertainty existed on how quickly storms would transition from discrete to linear given the lack of low to mid-level directional flow.  So, in one hand you have a forecast that looks like a tornado outbreak is possible, and in the other hand you have a forecast for a raging squall line. The question then becomes how do you warn the public that it could get really bad, but then again it might not.  Do you go with the lesser threat and just cross your fingers that all heck doesn’t break loose?  Or, do you warn the public based on the potential of more significant weather and hope it doesn’t materialize?

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.  That will always be the stance taken by forecasters.  Why? Because a busted forecast doesn’t mean lives or property were lost by getting the forecast wrong.  There is absolutely no 100% accuracy in forecasting…not by anyone.  The mechanisms that produce severe weather are so incredibly complex that nobody will ever be able to achieve 100% accuracy…at least not in our lifetime..and probably not even our grandkids’ lifetimes.  The job of forecasters is to forecast the potential impacts…which sometimes means the worst possible outcome, then prepare their forecast in hopes that people will listen, take action and stay safe.  We will continue to do the same here with our forecasts.

Dispelling the hype with next week’s storm setup

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Since the hype train has taken off on the internets about next week’s storm setup it looks like we need to address some of the rumors.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the potential for an isolated severe weather threat late Saturday afternoon and evening across the Texas Panhandle. If storms can develop a few may be severe with a hail threat. We may see a few showers/storms on Sunday but this upcoming Tuesday and Thursday could both be active with severe weather risks.

At this juncture we’re simply too far out to tell how significant the severe weather threats may become. There are factors such as cap strength and where the strongest upper level lift will be located each day. The potential for significant severe weather is possible on Tuesday across Kansas and Oklahoma where a regional severe weather outbreak is possible with tornadoes. That potential is less certain in North Texas as there are signs the cap may keep thunderstorms from developing. If we do have storms develop off the dryline on Tuesday they would likely be severe and capable of producing all modes of severe weather.

Thursday could also be active in the severe weather department in Northwest and North Texas. Understand that this is spring in Texas. We deal with severe weather risks. Risks that look significant 5-7 days out can change and poop out as time gets closer. The synoptic upper air pattern next week is one that has produced significant outbreaks in the Plains – but that doesn’t mean the threat will extend south into Texas.

Other weather organizations will likely be hyping next week’s storm potential to get attention which is irresponsible 5+ days out. I encourage you to ignore the hype and just keep tuned to a trusted weather source for information.

Could next week feature significant severe weather in Texas? Yes. Is it a guarantee? Absolutely not. We’ll keep you updated on the latest forecasts as we get into the weekend. Follow your local National Weather Service office for the latest weather forecast as well.

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At LEAST 9 Tornadoes Confirmed from December 26 Outbreak

SnapShot

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has published a preliminary finding on their storm surveys from today. Due to the number of possible tornadoes and the overall scope of the event it’ll take a couple more days to survey all damage areas. The strongest tornado struck Garland and was rated an EF-4. This was the first EF-4 tornado in Dallas county since the Lancaster tornado back in 1994. That was the first EF-4 tornado in the month of December to ever impact Texas. Finally this was the first EF-4 tornado to strike the United States in December since December 16, 2000.It goes without saying yesterday’s event was historic. The Garland tornado continued into Rowlett and eventually Collin County. Another significant tornado struck northern Ellis county and southern Dallas county. Other tornadoes impacted more towns and will be surveyed in Monday. A total of eleven individuals were killed with dozens injured. Hundreds of structures were destroyed and many lives were changed forever. Once the surveys are complete I’ll compile a post with specific survey graphics for each tornado. Since the results are still preliminary I’ll leave you with the report text.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR DECEMBER 26TH TORNADO EVENT…

.OVERVIEW…SEVERAL TORNADOES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OF SATURDAY DECEMBER 26TH. THE STRONGEST TORNADO PRODUCED
EF4 DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF GARLAND…AS WELL AS EF3 DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF
ROWLETT. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED A CONTINUOUS PATH OF DAMAGE FOR APPROXIMATELY
13 MILES IN DALLAS AND ROCKWALL COUNTIES. THE TORNADO CAUSED 8 FATALITIES
MOST OF WHICH NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INTERSTATE 30 AND THE PRESIDENT
GEORGE BUSH TURNPIKE. TWO TORNADOES WERE CONFIRMED IN COLLIN COUNTY…NEAR
COPEVILLE…WHERE EF2 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED BY NWS SURVEY CREWS. TORNADO
DAMAGE WAS ALSO OBSERVED NEAR BLUE RIDGE…WHERE EF0 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED.
TWO FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN COPEVILLE…AND ONE FATALITY WAS
REPORTED IN BLUE RIDGE.

IN TOTAL…THERE HAVE BEEN NINE CONFIRMED TORNADOES AND 11 FATALITIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THE 26TH. NOT ALL OF THE TORNADO
DAMAGE HAS BEEN SURVEYED AND ADDITIONAL SURVEYS ARE PLANNED FOR MONDAY.
ALL TIMES LISTED ARE APPROXIMATE AND WILL BE FURTHER REFINED. AS OF SUNDAY
NIGHT…THESE ARE THE CONFIRMED TORNADOES FROM THE 26TH. THIS NUMBER MAY
GO UP WITH FURTHER SURVEYS.

.HUBBARD TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70-80 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 203 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3N HUBBARD / HILL / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 209 PM CST
END LOCATION: 6N HUBBARD / HILL / TEXAS

.OVILLA / GLENN HEIGHTS TORNADO…

RATING: EF-N/A
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: N/A MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: N/A MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: N/A YARDS
FATALITIES: UNKNOWN
INJURIES: UNKNOWN

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: N/A
START LOCATION: N/A

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: N/A
END LOCATION: N/A

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO CAN BE CONFIRMED DUE TO SPOTTER REPORTS.
SEVERAL AREAS FROM MIDLOTHIAN TO GLENN HEIGHTS WILL BE SURVEYED ON
MONDAY

.ENNIS TORNADO…

RATING: EF-N/A
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: N/A MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: N/A MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: N/A YARDS
FATALITIES: UNKNOWN
INJURIES: UNKNOWN

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: N/A
START LOCATION: N/A

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: N/A
END LOCATION: N/A

SURVEY_SUMMARY: TRAINED SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO APPROXIMATELY
3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ENNIS ON THE EVENING OF THE 26TH. THIS AREA WILL
BE SURVEYED AS WELL ON MONDAY.

.EUSTACE TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 40 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 2:44 PM CST
START LOCATION: 2NE EUSTACE / HENDERSON / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 2:47 PM CST
END LOCATION: 3NE EUSTACE / HENDERSON / TEXAS

.SULPHUR SPRINGS TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.5 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 5:33 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3 S SULPHUR SPRINGS / HOPKINS / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 5:34 PM CST
END LOCATION: 2S SULPHUR SPRINGS / HOPKINS / TEXAS

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO WAS OBSERVED AND PHOTOGRAPHED BY
TRAINED SPOTTERS.

.EMORY TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1.0 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 75 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 5:22 PM CST
START LOCATION: 3NE EMORY / RAINS / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 5:23 PM CST
END LOCATION: 3NE EMORY / RAINS / TEXAS

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THIS TORNADO WAS OBSERVED AND REPORTED BY TRAINED
SPOTTERS.

.SUNNYVALE / GARLAND / ROWLETT…

RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 170-180 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 13 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 550 YARDS
FATALITIES: 8
INJURIES: 7+

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 6:45 PM CST
START LOCATION: SUNNYVALE / DALLAS / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 7:05 PM CST
END LOCATION: LAKE RAY HUBBARD / ROCKWALL / TEXAS

.COPEVILLE TORNADO…

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 115-125 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 7.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 2
INJURIES: N/A

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 7:28 PM CST
START LOCATION: COPEVILLE / COLLIN / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 7:42 PM CST
END LOCATION: 2NW FARMERSVILLE / COLLIN / TEXAS

.BLUE RIDGE TORNADO…

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 70-80 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 80 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: N/A

START DATE: DEC 26 2015
START TIME: 7:48 PM CST
START LOCATION: 1SE BLUE RIDGE / COLLIN / TEXAS

END DATE: DEC 26 2015
END TIME: 7:52 PM CST
END LOCATION: 2NE BLUE RIDGE

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0…WEAK……65 TO 85 MPH
EF1…WEAK……86 TO 110 MPH
EF2…STRONG….111 TO 135 MPH
EF3…STRONG….136 TO 165 MPH
EF4…VIOLENT…166 TO 200 MPH
EF5…VIOLENT…>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

Historic Blizzard Ramps Up Tonight with Crippling Impacts

Post-Christmas Blizzard of 2015

2015-12-26_5-31-50

A crippling and probably historic winter storm will impact the western half of Texas beginning tonight. This winter storm will produce blizzard conditions with travel becoming impossible across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling Plains, into the Permian Basin. Winter weather accumulations are possible across Northwest Texas, the Concho Valley, Big Country, Far West Texas, and western North Texas. There will be the potential for light snow in North Texas, including the D/FW Metroplex, on Monday but accumulations are not expected. We’ve been talking about this system for days so I’ll forgo the full discussion. Below is a list of accumulation, timing, and impact information based on geographical regions of Texas.

Texas Panhandle

AMA_morning

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
503 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY…

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-261930-
/O.CON.KAMA.BZ.W.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOISE CITY…KEYES…GUYMON…BEAVER…
FORGAN…DALHART…STRATFORD…SPEARMAN…GRUVER…PERRYTON…
BOOKER…HIGGINS…FOLLETT…HARTLEY…CHANNING…DUMAS…
BORGER…MIAMI…CANADIAN…VEGA…AMARILLO…PANHANDLE…
WHITE DEER…PAMPA…SHAMROCK…WHEELER…HEREFORD…CANYON…
CLAUDE…CLARENDON…WELLINGTON
503 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY…

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…6 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS OF 5 TO 10 FEET ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED STRONG WINDS.

* WIND CHILLS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS…IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS…MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

South Plains and Rolling Plains in West Texas

morning_lbb

image_full4

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

…HISTORIC BLIZZARD POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND…

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PULL
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A
PROLONGED WINTER STORM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
MONDAY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND COULD SUSPEND TRAVEL ALTOGETHER.
MOTORISTS WHO CHOOSE TO TRAVEL IN THESE CONDITIONS WILL RISK
BECOMING STRANDED IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS.

TXZ021>044-261800-
/O.CON.KLUB.BZ.W.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1500Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FRIONA…BOVINA…FARWELL…DIMMITT…
HART…TULIA…SILVERTON…QUITAQUE…MEMPHIS…CHILDRESS…
MULESHOE…LITTLEFIELD…OLTON…PLAINVIEW…CEDAR HILL…
MATADOR…ROARING SPRINGS…PADUCAH…HACKBERRY…MORTON…
LEVELLAND…LUBBOCK…RALLS…CROSBYTON…LORENZO…SPUR…
DICKENS…DUMONT…FINNEY…GROW…GUTHRIE…DENVER CITY…
PLAINS…BROWNFIELD…TAHOKA…O`DONNELL…GRAHAM…POST…
JAYTON…ASPERMONT
1151 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

…BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM
CST MONDAY…

* TIMING…A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW…SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO HEAVY SNOW LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. VISIBILITY FROM FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW TOTALS…WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. IN THESE
AREAS SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 10 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS…UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF SLEET AND ICE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

* COLDEST WIND CHILLS…WILL RANGE FROM -5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.

* IMPACTS…PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY ARE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CANCEL THEM ALTOGETHER. POWER OUTAGES
ARE LIKELY. ENSURE A SUFFICIENT SUPPLY OF FOOD RESERVES AS RURAL
AREAS MAY BE ISOLATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. PLAN A MEANS TO KEEP
WARM WITHOUT COMMERCIAL UTILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS EXTREMELY LOW VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING
SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL CREATE WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AND CAN MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…
HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU AND ENSURE YOUR FUEL TANKS
ARE FULL. IF YOU GET STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

Permian Basin into Far West Texas

maf_morning2

morning_maf

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
321 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO…THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN…AND THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY…
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY…

.A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY SNOW. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INITIALLY AS RAIN
AND TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY.
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
WIND WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AND ALSO CREATE LOW
VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL ACROSS WEST TEXAS OR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

TXZ046-047-051-262200-
/O.UPG.KMAF.WS.W.0008.151227T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KMAF.BZ.W.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
DAWSON-BORDEN-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LAMESA…GAIL…STANTON
321 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY…

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING…SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW COULD DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 8 TO 14 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS GREATER THAN 5
FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BITTERLY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR 0 DEGREES AT
TIMES.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND COULD
BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN THESE CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS…MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-050-258-262200-
/O.CON.KMAF.BZ.W.0001.151227T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
ANDREWS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…QUEEN…ARTESIA…CARLSBAD…
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP…TATUM…HOBBS…LOVINGTON…EUNICE…JAL…
SEMINOLE…ANDREWS…GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP…PINE SPRINGS
321 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 /221 AM MST SAT DEC 26 2015/

…BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY…

* TIMING…SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND BLOWING
SNOW COULD DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…WIDESPREAD 8 TO 14 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS GREATER THAN 5 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO
DEGREES AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND COULD
BECOME IMPOSSIBLE IN THESE CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS…MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL…HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED…STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

$$

TXZ048-052-053-057>063-067>070-074-075-079-080-262200-
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.W.0008.151227T0000Z-151228T1200Z/
SCURRY-HOWARD-MITCHELL-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SNYDER…BIG SPRING…COLORADO CITY…
VAN HORN…PECOS…MENTONE…RED BLUFF LAKE…KERMIT…ODESSA…
MIDLAND…GARDEN CITY…MONAHANS…CRANE…MCCAMEY…RANKIN…
BIG LAKE…ALPINE…FORT DAVIS…FORT STOCKTON…PRESIDIO…MARFA
321 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM CST MONDAY…

* TIMING…SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY…NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING AND
BLOWING SNOW COULD DROP TO NEAR ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOW DRIFTS UP TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE.

* WIND CHILLS…THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 0 TO 10
DEGREES AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS ROADS BECOME ICY AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCES
VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Concho Valley and Big Country

sjt_morning

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
401 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND THE
NORTHWEST CONCHO VALLEY…

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY…
PORTIONS OF THE HEARTLAND…EASTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU.

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEKEND…BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEET
AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING…WITH SLEET MIXING WITH RAIN FARTHER EAST.
BY SUNDAY EVENING…PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW.
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS WILL RESULT IN
TREACHEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS…ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

TXZ049-054-064-065-071-098-113-127-262215-
/O.CON.KSJT.WS.W.0003.151227T1200Z-151228T1500Z/
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-IRION-HASKELL-JONES-TAYLOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ROTAN…ROBY…SWEETWATER…
STERLING CITY…ROBERT LEE…BRONTE…MERTZON…HASKELL…
STAMFORD…ANSON…HAMLIN…ABILENE
401 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO
9 AM CST MONDAY…

* TIMING…6 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT…TRAVEL WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW RESULTS IN TREACHEROUS ROADWAYS. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 MPH WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS…4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW…
SLEET…AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

TXZ066-072-073-076-077-099-114-128-139-262215-
/O.CON.KSJT.WS.A.0004.151227T1800Z-151228T1500Z/
RUNNELS-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-THROCKMORTON-
SHACKELFORD-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BALLINGER…WINTERS…SAN ANGELO…
EDEN…OZONA…ELDORADO…THROCKMORTON…WOODSON…ALBANY…
CLYDE…BAIRD…CROSS PLAINS…COLEMAN
401 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING…

* TIMING…12 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT…SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROADWAYS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA…AS A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
CHANGES…TO SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING.

* OTHER IMPACTS…NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MAY CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Northwest Texas into adjacent sections of Oklahoma

oun_morning1

oun_morning2

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY…

.A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS… WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND EAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND OR ICE
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS. MOST OF
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION SHOULD END MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033>037-TXZ083>085-087-262130-
/O.CON.KOUN.WS.W.0003.151227T0000Z-151229T0000Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-KNOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BUFFALO…ALVA…ARNETT…WOODWARD…
CHEYENNE…TALOGA…WEATHERFORD…CLINTON…ELK CITY…SAYRE…
CORDELL…HOLLIS…MANGUM…HOBART…ALTUS…FREDERICK…QUANAH…
CHILLICOTHE…CROWELL…VERNON…MUNDAY…KNOX CITY
347 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM CST MONDAY…

* TIMING…LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT…NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COMBINED SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WINTER
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WITH
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS…STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT IN WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE WINDS MAY
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT… SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION…ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES
NOW.

AVOID TRAVEL. BE SURE YOU CAN TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF AND YOUR
FAMILY IF YOU LOSE ELECTRICAL POWER. MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS
AND INFORMATION.

ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-
PAYNE-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-COTTON-WICHITA-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CHEROKEE…MEDFORD…PONCA CITY…
FAIRVIEW…ENID…PERRY…WATONGA…KINGFISHER…GUTHRIE…
STILLWATER…ANADARKO…YUKON…EL RENO…MUSTANG…
OKLAHOMA CITY…CHANDLER…CHICKASHA…PURCELL…NORMAN…MOORE…
SHAWNEE…LAWTON…DUNCAN…PAULS VALLEY…WALTERS…
WICHITA FALLS…SEYMOUR…ARCHER CITY…HOLLIDAY…LAKESIDE CITY
347 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON…

* TIMING…LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT…COMBINED SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…
ESPECIALLY BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS DUE
TO FREEZING RAIN NEAR ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE… ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

* OTHER IMPACTS…STRONG NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT IN WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THESE WINDS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED
NUMBER OF POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE REGION…EVEN IF ONLY
LIGHT ICING AMOUNTS OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION…ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES
NOW.

North Texas (west of Interstate 35)

10154029_950564668313480_4164009478086893855_n

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
506 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS…

.WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.

TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129-261915-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0003.151228T0000Z-151228T1800Z/
MONTAGUE-YOUNG-JACK-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BOWIE…NOCONA…GRAHAM…OLNEY…
JACKSBORO…BRECKENRIDGE…MINERAL WELLS…CISCO…EASTLAND…
RANGER…GORMAN
506 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* LOCATION…THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES OF
EASTLAND…JACK…MONTAGUE…STEPHENS…PALO PINTO AND YOUNG.

* TIMING…AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE…SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS…1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE

* TEMPERATURES…IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT…BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SURFACE
STREETS WHERE SNOWFALL IS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS…STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY WHEN
SNOW IS FALLING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW…SLEET…OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT MINOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE STORM SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED TO THE
THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Your Sunday Forecast & Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather late Monday

TX_swody2

Good morning and happy Sunday!  Just a quick update for everyone on the outlook for today, plus a first look at the Enhanced Risk of severe weather for late Monday into early Tuesday.  Light rain showers continue in a band stretching from west Texas into western north texas this morning.  We expect this will be the trend today with additional showers and a few isolated thundershowers to develop and traverse this region of the state today and into tonight.  For today, here’s an overview of the rain chances and a peek at the simulated radar of how things may look over the next 15 hours.  Why 15?  That’s as far out as this particular model reaches… 😀

hrrr_2015111513_ref_tx

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.33.09 AM Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.33.23 AM Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.32.33 AM Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.32.43 AM

The severe weather threat for tomorrow is increasing.  The Storm Prediction Center upgraded the outlook to an Enhanced Risk for the period from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.  Very strong dynamics will be in place by Monday afternoon with a strong system overhead, plenty of moisture, a crashing cold front and sufficient instability and shear to produce a chance for isolated supercell thunderstorms to develop across parts of the eastern panhandle, northwest Texas and west central Texas by Monday evening.  During the late afternoon/early evening timeframe, when the storms are more isolated, there will be a threat for a few tornadoes.  As we get into the 7 to 9pm timeframe, these storms are expected to quickly evolve into a squall line of strong storms along the leading edge of the cold front and blast east across the northern half of the state and towards the I-35 corridor within the midnight to 2am timeframe.  Greatest threats with this line of storms will be the potential for very strong winds and damaging hail.  Crazy as I may be, I’ll be chasing this Monday evening, but David will be manning the weather desk and will provide updates for everyone throughout the night.

TX_swody2