The upper level high pressure responsible for our hot and dry weather will continue to influence Texas for the foreseeable future. This weather pattern is typical for the summer months and we’re seeing temperatures fairly close to average for late July. No doubt its hot out there but we’re not seeing anything close to record-breaking warmth or atypical weather for July. In fact we’re still awaiting the first 100 degree day at D/FW Airport for 2015. We should see that first 100 degree reading at D/FW today or tomorrow with a string of them likely over the next week. If anything good can come from this heat its that we’ve seen a period of dry weather which is helping to stabilize rivers and watersheds over flood-impacted regions. The downside to the dry weather is that surface fuels are drying out and grass fires are becoming more common, especially with the explosive growth from May and June rains.
High temperatures today will average one to two degrees warmer than Saturday across the state. The Texas Panhandle and West Texas should see mid 90s on the low end of the spectrum with the Permian Basin and Deep South Texas seeing the hottest temperatures today around 101-105 degrees. Upper 90s to lower 100s will be commonplace everywhere else in Texas. Heat index values along and east of Interstate 35 will climb into the mid to upper 100s today resulting in oppressive summer conditions. A rouge thunderstorm is possible in the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon through tonight but everyone else will remain hot and dry.
One factor that goes into the issuance of heat advisories across Texas is the low temperature forecast. While we have been seeing heat index values approach/exceed 105 degrees during the afternoon hours low temperatures play a large role as well. At night you typically expect things to cool off and that’s when folks without air conditioning can open their windows. However if temperatures fail to cool much then that is when you start seeing heat-related illness with the elderly or those without air conditioning. Typically those issues become a real concern when you get low temperatures above 78-80 degrees. Back in 2011 we had low temperatures in North Texas only falling into the mid 80s which is something you’d expect out in Arizona. We’re no where near that level of heat at this time. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low to upper 70s depending on your location and elevation.
We’ll crank temperatures up another one to two degrees on Monday as the heat ridge remains in place. Our weather pattern won’t change much over the next week with continued hot and dry weather. It’s summer in Texas – and even with an El Nino we have to deal with the heat. Stay cool, hydrated, protected from the sun, and check on your elderly neighbors to make sure they’re doing well and staying cool. Have a great Sunday and enjoy it!
July 16, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup & Daily Forecast
Thursday, 16 July 2015 06:46
Another summer day with the same forecast as the last. These are the days that the forecasts run together and we see little day to day change. Sunny skies and overhead high pressure will once again result in a quick warmup. Temperatures by lunchtime will be in the lower 90s. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 90s across all of Texas. Those that don’t will climb into the lower 100s. The ‘how it will feel’ temperature will be around 105 degrees across Northeast and East Texas this afternoon with higher humidity values. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon in the Texas Panhandle. Gusty winds will be a decent bet near the stronger storms.
Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and Hill Country. Mid to upper 70s will be noted elsewhere with heat index values in the lower 80s. Again nothing unusual for July. Temperatures will increase this weekend with several locations in Texas likely to top 100 degrees. Chances for rain remain low for the next several days.
Your Steamy July 14, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup
Tuesday, 14 July 2015 06:27
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the July 14th edition of the Texas Weather Roundup. In the dog days of summer these can become pretty repetitive day after day. With an El Nino in place we’ll have to watch for periods of active weather this summer. We will not be dealing with anything un-summerlike for the next few days. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon and evening up in the Texas Panhandle. Everyone else will be left high and dry. If you’re lucky you may see a cloud or two to give some shade this afternoon. Otherwise I recommend you get a hat.
WIth clear skies and a heat ridge in place temperatures will quickly warm into the mid 90s by lunchtime. Along and east of Interstate 35 in Texas will be where higher humidity values results in elevated heat index temperatures. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s into the lower 100s. Heat index temperatures, or what it feels like with the humidity, will be 103 to 108 degrees along and east of Interstate 35. The most oppressive values will be across Northeast and East Texas. If it makes you feel better parts of northern Oklahoma could see heat index temperatures reach 115 degrees today. Light south winds will at least help stir the air a bit.
Another complicating factor will be that low temperatures tonight won’t drop off too much in the urban corridors along/east of Interstate 35. This means heat index values overnight will remain in the 80s. Those sensitive to the heat or without air conditioning will be particularly susceptible to heat-related issues. Rural areas will see temperatures drop into the lower 70s. Much of the same will be seen on Wednesday and through the rest of the work week.
July 9, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup | More Severe Storms Possible Today
Thursday, 09 July 2015 06:27
Good Thursday Morning! The Concho Valley will be getting a well deserved drying out today now that the rain has moved away. Another round of storms is expected this evening across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. The monsoon is partly to blame along with a subtropical jet boosted by El Nino. Otherwise the only precipitation we would be seeing is from the typical summer popups. Storms last night were fairly uncommon this late into the summer. Usually wind shear is far too weak to support significant severe weather such as very large hail and tornadoes. Alas we’ll have to watch for that hazard again this evening in the Texas Panhandle as atmospheric conditions remain essentially the same.
Temperatures will climb into the 90s across the eastern two thirds of Texas today. Deep South Texas around Laredo could climb to the century mark today. Heat index temperatures will be in the lower 100s across East, Southeast, and perhaps even North Texas as humidity values will be quite atrocious today. Upper 80s are expected across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Permian Basin.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible by this afternoon across the Texas Panhandle and in Far West Texas around El Paso. Convection around El Paso is due to the annual monsoon season. By tonight scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Far West Texas. Some of the storms in the Panhandle may be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and a nonzero tornado threat.
Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s along and east of Interstate 35 from the Red River south to Laredo. Upper 60s to lower 70s are expected across the western half of Texas. Overall not too shabby for July -but we will be getting warmer by the weekend in both daytime and overnight temperatures.
Strong/Severe Storms Firing up on the TX Panhandle/NM Border
Wednesday, 08 July 2015 17:07
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing from just northeast of Tucumcari northeast to Texline and Boise City. These thunderstorms are making slow progress to the east/southeast at 15-20 MPH. At the moment these storms are discrete/semi-discrete but we do expect growth into a cluster or line later this evening. Modest wind shear aloft along with ample instablity in the atmosphere will support an organized thunderstorm mode. A severe weather watch is possible this evening as thunderstorms move into Texas from New Mexico. Straightline winds up to 70 MPH along with pocket-change size hail will be possible. The tornado threat is nonzero. Storms will move east/southeast this evening and potentially impact the southern Panhandle and South Plains closer to midnight. Not all storms will be severe. Localized flooding will be a threat as well.