Tag Archives: storms

Good Rain Chances Tonight; Near Record Lows Possible Tonight for parts of TX!

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The southeastern Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas are seeing rain and a few thunderstorms this morning. At the time of this writing a few storms are also underway around Amarillo and near Lubbock. Activity is moving southeast in association with an outflow boundary and cold front. Gusty winds are possible with this activity.

Rain/Storm Chances Today

Rain/Storm Chances Today

Rain/Storm Chances Tonight

Rain/Storm Chances Tonight

Rain/Storm chances on Thursday

Rain/Storm chances on Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today across the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and Central Texas. More isolated activity is possible in South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and West Texas later today. Rain and storm chances will continue tonight with the rainless streak at D/FW, Waco, and most of East Texas expected to come to an end. On Thursday scattered rain and storms will continue to push south and eventually clear most of Texas, except the Rio Grande Valley, Thursday Night. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the stronger activity.

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While fairly normal during the winter months one would not expect to see a 30-35 degree temperature difference in August across Texas. Folks south of the cold front, roughly along and south of Interstate 20, will see high temperatures in the 90s to low 100s today. Folks in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Northwest Texas will remain in the upper 60s to 70s today. Our neighbors in Oklahoma may not get out of the 60s today. For Thursday temperatures will top out in the low to upper 80s north of Interstate 10. Low to mid 90s can be expected south of Interstate 10 into the Rio Grande Valley – a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.

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I’ve saved the best part of this forecast for last. Now I’ll go ahead and say for those in South Texas, Southeast Texas, and Deep South Texas you’re going to be warm and humid tonight since the front will not have reached you yet. However if you’re north of the front tonight is going to be a treat. Amarillo should get down to 52 degrees tonight with dewpoints in the 40s. Mid to upper 50s are expected tonight across West Texas and Northwest Texas. Low to mid 60s will dominate the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Big Country, North, and NOrtheast Texas. Upper 60s to lower 70s can be expected across Central and East Texas into the Big Country as well. Remember this is mid August in Texas folks. The fact we’re talking about low temperatures in the 50s is fairly rare. Wichita Falls will be close to setting a record low temperature tonight. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few upper 40s tonight in the Texas Panhandle – incredible for August.

Strong Storms Expected Later Today & Tonight with Weak Cold Front

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A weak cold front currently located across the southern Texas Panhandle east into southern Oklahoma will continue to slowly move south this afternoon. Winds north of the boundary are out of the north with only a minor temperature drop. This boundary will become a focal point for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon with storms that fire up on that boundary. They’ll also make progress south. The strongest storms will be capable of producing 1.00-1.25″ diameter hail along with wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rain are always threats with summer storms. The threat for severe weather will lower late this evening as storms push closer to Interstate 20.

I believe the Texas Tech WRF has a good handle on what we can expect through late tonight so I’ll share a few simulated radar images. As usual don’t expect things to look exactly like what the weather model shows.

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 7 PM CT

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 7 PM CT

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 10 PM CT

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 10 PM CT

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 1 AM CT Saturday

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 1 AM CT Saturday

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 4 AM CT Saturday

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 4 AM CT Saturday

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