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Rain and Storm Chances Increase in Western Texas Tomorrow

Highs Friday

Tomorrow is shaping up to be another warm, yet pleasant, day across much of the state.  Temps will be climbing a few degrees over today’s highs as high pressure peaks over the state.  A strong area of low pressure, currently arriving along the central California coast, will move into the desert southwest tomorrow and will kick the high east over the weekend and bring the return of rain and storm chances tomorrow evening and through the weekend.  Lows tonight will be pleasant and seasonal ranging from the mid to upper 40s across the panhandle, to the low 60s down from west Texas down through south Texas. In between, low to mid 50s will be widespread across central, north and east Texas.  Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 80’s to 90’s across west Texas, and more temperate low 80s across the central and eastern half of the state.

Lows Tonight Highs Friday

As our next weather maker begins to approach tomorrow, we’ll see the return of rain and storm chances across far west Texas, mainly across the mountains and higher elevation regions west of the Pecos.  Some of the storms could become strong with a lightning and damaging downburst wind threat.  Widespread severe weather is not expected.

TX_swody2 MAF Friday

 

TTU WRF Friday Evening

Saturday, a weak dryline is expected to set up across the central panhandle and down into the Permian Basin region.  Isolated strong to severe storms are expected to develop by late Saturday afternoon along and east of the dryline, but that will be conditional on having sufficient moisture in place for storm development.  The Storm Prediction Center currently has this region of the state under a Marginal Risk for Saturday afternoon and evening.  With this next system just now moving onshore, we may see some updates to this risk area by tomorrow, so be sure to check back!

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Strong to Severe Storms Possible Saturday, Sunday, and Monday

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The first chance of isolated to widely scattered storms will be Saturday afternoon across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and the Permian Basin. The best severe weather chances are expected to be north of the state up in eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Limited moisture is expected to limit the overall severe weather threat in our state on Friday. A dryline will set up near the Texas/New Mexico border by the late afternoon hours Saturday. Isolated storms are expected to develop and move into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. There probably won’t be many storms – but those that do form could be severe with a threat of large hail and localized damaging wind gusts. Limited moisture levels and uncertainty regarding low-level wind shear means the tornado threat is anticipated to be very low. I can’t rule out a tornado but we’ll have to refine that threat as we get closer.

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The threat for severe storms will shift east on Sunday to include Northwest Texas, Texoma, North Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and the Hill Country. We’ll likely see storms start to fire up by mid-afternoon ahead of the dryline which will be pushing into Northwest Texas and the Big Country. Depending on mesoscale factors we may also see a few storms fire up well ahead of the dryline. The threat for storms will continue into the evening hours as they move east towards I-35. Very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes are possible with the strongest activity. Being 72+ hours out means a lot will probably change between now and Sunday. Please check back for forecast refinements and more specific information once we get closer.

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As expected yesterday the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the eastern half of North Texas, Northeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, and East Texas for Monday. Storms will probably start to increase in coverage by the afternoon hours as a dryline surges east. At this point I’m not even going to waste your time by trying to get specific on timing or threats. At this point it looks like large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threats. We’ll also have to be on the watch for localized flooding issues.

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Here are the National Weather Service forecasts for day-by-day precipitation chances. We won’t have a wash-out this weekend or early next week. Some folks are definitely going to have wet periods.

Depending on what weather model guidance shows as it comes in this morning we may put out a more detailed post this afternoon/evening. Jenny should have her usual evening weather roundup published tonight. No hazardous weather is expected this evening or on Friday.

Slight Chance For Rain This Evening/Overnight

Highs Wed

Folks across north Texas will have a chance for rain this evening and overnight as a piece of upper level energy arrives.  We have a good bit of dry air at the surface, so the rain will have to work hard to drop more than just very light accumulations.  No severe weather is expected, but we could see a bit of lightning and hear a few claps of thunder.  This activity is expected to dissipate by morning.  Below is a simulated radar loop of how this may play out between now and 8am tomorrow morning.

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With lots of dry air remaining across the state, lows will be able to dip down into the low 40s to low 50s across a large portion of the state.  Further south along the coast and into deep south Texas, higher humidity values will help to keep temps from cratering below the mid 60s.  Still, not bad for this time of the year.  Highs tomorrow will rebound nicely and range from the 70s to low 80s.  Warmest spots tomorrow will be from the Big Bend Region and south along the Rio Grande where temps will top out in the 90s.  We’ll have plenty of sunshine as well to enjoy if you are able to get out and about during the day.

Lows Highs Wed

Long term…high pressure will begin to build in over the region and we will remain between two areas of low pressure east and west of us through the rest of the work week.  The low to our west will begin working its way east by Friday and we’ll see the return of rain and storm chances across parts of western Texas Friday and Saturday.  As we get into Sunday and Monday, the low will open up even further east and bring additional chances for rain and storms into north and central Texas.  We could see some severe storms out west over the weekend, and across north and central Texas during the first part of next week; however, it’s way too soon to get into any details yet.  We’ll continue to monitor this and provide updates as we get closer!  Until then, enjoy the pleasant weather for the next several days!

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Storms moving out with much cooler weather

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The radar is lit up this morning across portions of the state but no severe weather is expected. We did deal with a rather unexpected severe weather situation overnight across Southeast Texas. Some storms were able to pop up and become hailers. Some spots received quarter to golfball size hail. I won’t lie when I say that was fairly unexpected on my part. No additional severe weather is expected today with the strongest storms now off-shore. Radar estimates indicate almost 10 inches of rain has fallen offshore of Galveston this morning. Luckily we don’t have anywhere near that much rain indicated inland. Just before 8 AM it is almost 80 degrees before Brownsville down in the Rio Grande Valley with Amarillo and Dalhart in the low/mid 30s. The western Panhandle experienced a late-season freeze overnight with temperatures dropping briefly to 30-32 degrees. So with that we get to play another instance of pick your season! Do you want to be down in the Rio Grande Valley where its essentially a summer’s morning or do you prefer to wake up with fall weather up in the Panhandle?

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With a cool front pushing south today temperatures will be on the cool side for May 2nd. High temperatures today will only top out in the 60s to low 70s across the northern half of Texas this afternoon. Folks in Southeast texas into the Rio Grande Valley will stay in the 70s to lower 80s.

This afternoon's high temperature forecast

This afternoon’s high temperature forecast

Tonight’s low temperature forecast looks similiar to what I’d expect to see in early April – not early May. I suppose it beats out dealing with severe storms or a humid airmass. Folks within 50 miles of the coast will bottom out in the 50s to low 60s tonight. Everyone else will likely drop off into the 40s to mid 50s. It might not be a bad idea to have a light jacket ready to go for your Tuesday morning activities. I know I’ll need one after getting used to waking up in the 60s and 70s.

Tuesday morning low temperature forecast

Tuesday morning low temperature forecast

Marginal Threat of Severe Storms Today and Overnight

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Cooler and drier air continues to filter in behind Friday’s cold front which is currently stalled out from about Texarkana towards Victoria and then west towards Del Rio.  Areas near and south of the stalled front have the best chances for seeing storm development this afternoon during peak daytime heating with hail and wind being the primary threats.  Most of the short-range models are generating the bulk of storms this afternoon from along the coastal bend up into southeast Texas, with another pocket of storm development out west in the Del Rio vicinity.  A weak-ish upper level disturbance arrives from the west later this evening which will increase the chance for seeing more widespread rain and thunderstorm development overnight from deep south Texas all the way across central and north central Texas during the overnight hours. Storms that develop tonight across deep south Texas ahead of the cold front will have the best chance at becoming surface-based with the threat of large hail and perhaps an isolated tornadoes.  The overall risk for tornadoes across the region covered by the “Marginal Risk” below is low, but is not zero. Further north across central and north central Texas and over into the rolling plains region, any storms that develop tonight are expected to be elevated in nature with just a lightning and gusty wind threat.

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Forecast highs today, and the forecast lows expected overnight, reveal that we have pretty much the entire seasonal spectrum going on across our state once again.  We are so special!  Highs today will struggle to get into the 50s across the panhandle.  Meanwhile down in deep south Texas, conditions will be quite muggy and warm with highs in the low 90s.  Folks in north and central Texas will luck out with very pleasant highs in the mid to upper 70s.  Lows tonight, quite chilly and in the mid 30s to low 40s across the panhandle, with much more mild and pleasant 50s and 60s across north and central Texas.  Deep south and coastal regions will see lows only drop int0 the upper 60s to mid 70s overnight.

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After tonight’s round of rainfall exits the state by Monday afternoon, we’ll be in for a more prolonged dry period with high pressure building over the state for much of the work week.  It looks like we’ll remain dry until we get closer to the weekend and the arrival of our next upper level system which may generate storm chances across the western half of the state by next weekend.  Still too early to be certain on any of the details, but we’ll be watching that threat closely later this week.

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