Sponsored By…
Posts Tagged ‘Storm’
Major Winter Storm Expected for the Texas Panhandle
Winter Storm Watch for the Texas Panhandle
The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a Winter Storm Watch for a majority of their county warning area. This means most of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles are included in this watch. The watch generally includes areas along and northwest of a Hereford, Amarillo, and Pampa line. Although areas further southeast are not currently under a winter storm watch, that does not mean they will not see winter weather. This watch is a long-duration winter storm watch signaling the potential of a high impact winter storm. It’s likely that we’ll see more products issued later this afternoon and tomorrow as we get closer to this winter storm.
12Z NAM: Snow Accumulation Potential
This is a model depiction of the possible snow accumulations from the upcoming winter storm. While I always stress this is only model data, I must say that in my opinion, this solution is possible. As we’re still a few days out from the event, this graphic will change dependent on where the low pressure eventually tracks. I don’t want you to focus too much on where the position of the highest snow amounts on this graphic are located, but folks under the Winter Storm Watch should definitely be prepared to see snow amounts of at least six to eight inches. In addition to the snow, surface winds will likely be in excess of 30 MPH, with some gusts up to 50 MPH. This will create widespread blowing snow and possibly blizzard conditions.
Timing is still a bit uncertain and will depend on the eventual track and speed of the storm system. Right now, it appears that the event will begin Monday Afternoon and really ramp up after sunset on Monday. This is definitely a storm system that should be monitored as it has the potential to create a high impact winter storm. Blizzard conditions on Monday Night would make travel impossible and very dangerous. We’re going to keep a close eye on this event as it approaches, so stay tuned.
(HD VIDEO) 10/23/2011 – Severe Storm approaches Downtown Dallas
(HD VIDEO) 10/23/2011 – Severe Storm approaches Downtown Dallas
October 22, 2011 Severe Weather Risk
Severe Weather Risks within 25 miles of your location (Click image for larger version)
With another atmospheric disturbance moving across the region later this afternoon and evening, along with sufficient amounts of gulf moisture and instability, we’re looking at the possibility of another evening/night of thunderstorms across Central/Southern Oklahoma and North/Northeast Texas. Compared to Monday, the severe weather threat will be higher today. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a standard risk of severe weather roughly from the Dallas – Fort Worth Metroplex and points north in North Texas into Oklahoma. The main portion of the above image shows the probability of experiencing severe hail within 25 miles of your location. The teal line indicates a 15% chance while the yellow line indicates a 30% chance (or nearly a 1 in 3 chance) of severe hail (AOA 1 inch) within 25 miles of your location.
In terms of timing, we should see a few thunderstorms initiate across Oklahoma by about 5 PM. These storms should make it to the Red River by 8 to 10 PM. After that, confidence in any solution lowers. Some model data is showing them pushing south of the Red River, impacting parts of North Texas this evening, while others show it remaining along/just north of the Red River. Right now, I believe that the primary line of thunderstorms will remain along/north of the Red River through 9 PM, but a secondary batch of showers/storms may form further south across North Texas by 9 PM. I know this isn’t the best forecast considering we have a World Series Game in Arlington tonight, but this is in a low confidence forecast. My piece of advice is to monitor the weather as we go into the afternoon and hopefully we get a better idea of what is going to happen.
In terms of chasing, I’m planning on leaving Dallas by about 1 PM and head up I-35 towards Ardmore in Oklahoma to wait it out. I’ll have my live stream up and running later this afternoon, so be sure to keep an eye on our Facebook/Twitter pages for that.
October 11 & 12 Rain Amounts
Good Morning!
Much of Northwest and the northern half of North Texas received more rainfall this morning as a complex of thunderstorms moved southeast across the area. Many of you received northwest winds of 30 to 40 MPH as an outflow boundary just ahead of the thunderstorms moved through. As expected, once the storms formed into a cluster they generally remained below severe limits with most having lightning and heavy rain. I’ve compiled several graphics showing the radar’s estimated accumulated rainfall from this morning’s event. Please understand that these amounts may be slightly off, but should generally be accurate for your region. I’ve split the graphics up into regions, with county graphics for the areas that received the heaviest rainfall. This is different then this past weekend’s event as many of you requested more specific information. When the National Weather Service posts a list of observed rainfall amounts, we’ll add that info here.
fsdfsdfsdfs
Early Evening Update on Storms; Update on rain chances for North Texas
Texas Panhandle Radar at 7:46 PM
As I said earlier this morning, a few supercell thunderstorms have developed across the Eastern Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas. Most have remained marginally severe with hail remaining at or below an inch, but one or two have become potent during the 7 PM hour with one supercell southeast of Pampa briefly becoming tornadic with a few funnel clouds reported. As of the time of this posting, all Tornado Warnings have expired. These storms will likely continue through the evening hours, congealing into a complex of thunderstorms known as a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), which is a technical term for a larger area of rain/storms.
HRRR at 3 AM Wednesday
There is still some uncertainty on how long the storms will be able to maintain themselves before dissipating, but confidence has increased that they will be able to organize into a convective mass and move southeastward overnight. This particular model run (22Z HRRR) shows the storms moving southeast into North Texas, generally below severe limits overnight, moving into the metroplex around 4 AM. I should stress that timing is still up in the air, but this the 2-6 AM timeframe sounds good for any storms to move in from the northwest. By the time the storms reach North Texas, the primary hazards will be cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rain, and some small hail. A severe storm or two isn’t out of the question due to cooling mid-levels which support the possibility of some hail.
Rainfall expected Overnight into Wednesday
This rainfall forecast covers tonight and tomorrow, and generally gives areas along and north of Interstate 20 up to half an inch of rain. That’s certainly possible wherever the storms track, but this won’t be anything like this past weekend and certainly won’t do anything to improve our drought.
Finally, here’s the chance of precipitation for those locations expected to be impacted by tonight’s thunderstorms. The first graphic is through the overnight hours, with the second graphic for the morning hours. It’s just a time cutoff, so just ‘combine’ both graphics for your chance of rain overnight.
Keep it tuned to Texas Storm Chasers as we continue to monitor tonight’s chances of rain.
- David
Chase Status
This shows the probability of a storm chase within the next 5 days.
By roczag
By weatherworm