The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of the Texas Panhandle to a SIGNIFICANT RISK of Severe Weather. An enhanced and standard risk surround the significant risk zone. It goes without saying severe weather is already underway this evening across the Panhandle. We expect the threat to continue this evening with storms over the next hour or two capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Once storms congeal into a complex the potential for widespread destructive straight-line winds will increase substantially. Some wind gusts will exceed hurricane-force or 75 MPH as storms move east into Oklahoma later tonight.
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014
…Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and
southern Great Plains tonight…
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A couple of tornadoes
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
Scattered to widespread severe winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes will be most likely across parts of the southern Great
Plains tonight. Additional severe storms mainly in the form of
damaging winds will persist over the central Great Plains and
Southeast states this evening.
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
HIGH RISK for Dangerous Tornadoes in Southwest Arkansas
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH RISK of Severe Weather including the potential for life-threatening, long-track tornadoes for much of Southwest and Central Arkansas this evening. This risk also includes about five square miles of Northeast Texas near Texarkana. This is the highest severe weather risk level issued and is reserved for the most severe events. In fact they only issue a High Risk one to two times a year on average. That should convey that the forecast confidence is very high in multiple strong, long-track tornadoes across Southwest/Central Arkansas this evening. An enhanced tornado risk does extend into Northeast Texas along and east of a Paris-Tyler-Carthage line where a Tornado Watch has already been issued. Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the dryline very near I-35E and these storms will move east and intensify this afternoon and evening capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds as they move into East Texas. Again, the highest risk for strong to violent long-track tornadoes will be in Southwest and Central Arkansas where residents need to be very weather aware tonight.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
VALID 272000Z – 281200Z
…THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AR…
…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AR…NERN
TX…FAR ERN OK AND SRN MO…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID AND
LOWER MO VALLEY SWD INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
SOUTHERN MISSOURI…EASTERN OKLAHOMA…AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK WILL BE
CENTERED ON ARKANSAS…WHERE A FEW STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE…A BAND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL…AND A FEW TORNADOES. MORE ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
…ADDED HIGH RISK TO AR IN ANTICIPATION OF SUPERCELLS FORMING
UPSTREAM OVER NERN TX AND ERN OK…WHICH WILL MATURE AS THEY MOVE
INTO AR WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS…
MUCH OF AR…FAR NERN TX AND SRN MO STILL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST
THREAT AREA FOR TORNADOES. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS SIGNS OF CU BECOMING GRADUALLY DEEPER WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS NERN TX…SWRN AR AND NRN LA.
SUPERCELLS WILL EVENTUALLY ERUPT ACROSS THESE AREAS…WITH STRONG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL.
Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Expected on Sunday
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare Day 3 Moderate Risk for Sunday across Northeast Texas. While this risk translates into a Significant Risk of Severe Weather on our graphic this is as high of a severe weather risk they can issue for a Day 3 severe weather outlook and have only done it a handful of times in the past. What this means is that the forecasters have enough confidence to say a major severe weather outbreak is expected on Sunday across parts of Southeast Oklahoma, northwest Texas, and West/Southwest Arkansas.
A Significant Risk of Severe Weather is expected on Sunday across parts of Northeast Texas including Clarksville, Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg, Gilmer, Marshall, Atlanta, New Boston, and Texarkana. A significant risk of severe weather is very rare this far out from an event and marks a nearly one in two chance severe weather will occur within 25 miles of your location. This means there is the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak including the potential for very large hail, destructive winds, and the possibility of several tornadoes (some of which could be strong and long-lived).
An Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather is expected on Sunday across portions of East Texas including Paris, Greenville, Terrell, Corsicana, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Longview, Tyler, Athens, and Greenville. A enhanced risk of severe weather there is a nearly 1 in 3 chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location. Thunderstorms in this area will be strengthening as they move northeast after developing further west along the dryline. These storms will likely become severe rapidly with a threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of tornadoes. This area also has the potential to see a severe weather outbreak.
A standard “possible” area of severe weather is expected to develop across portions of North Texas, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas including locations along and east of I-35 from Gainesville-Fort Worth-Temple line and then east of I-35 east of Austin. This risk then runs along and north of Interstate 10 from Flatonia-Sealy-Houston-Beaumont line. Bryan/College Station, Brenham, Huntsville, and Woodville are a few towns also included in the risk area. This area has the potential to see a few severe thunderstorms with a nearly 1 in 5 chance of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your location. Confidence in more widespread severe thunderstorms is lower in this zone but a few severe storms are expected. The strongest storms could produce hail up to the size of tennis-balls, 65 MPH wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Depending on trends parts of this area could be included in an enhanced risk in the next outlook issuance on Saturday.
As previously discussed the main focus on Sunday will be the dryline with locations east of the dryline under the gun with the severe weather threat. The further north you go along the dryline into North Texas/Northeast Texas the higher the severe weather probabilities and overall storm chances. The new severe weather outlook posted here has the dryline sitting on top or just east of I-35/I-35E across North Texas with thunderstorms developing just east of D/FW and becoming supercellular as they move northeast into Northeast Texas. Both instability and wind shear values are impressive and would support a significant severe weather and tornado threat with any sustained supercell.
We’re three days out from Sunday so there is little point in getting too detailed right now since some changes are expected. However unlike the Saturday event that has been going downhill in terms of the possible severe weather threat Sunday is a different story all together as ingredients could come together to support a major severe weather outbreak across Northeast Texas and adjoining areas of Oklahoma and Arkansas. This does include the threat of tornadoes so this is a threat to be taken seriously. There is no reason to be scared or to panic at this point. Simply consider this a heads up that bad weather is expected on Sunday. If you have not already done so form a severe weather safety plan with your family and practice it in your home while the weather is nice today and Saturday. Those planning on being at outdoor events on Sunday in the Significant/Enhanced risk zones should be ready to move to a place of shelter if a storm approaches. The severe weather risk is lower across Central Texas into Southeast Texas as fewer storms are expected on Sunday. However, they could still be quite intense with large hail and damaging winds.
Don’t be scared, be prepared! We’ll be posting many updates on this event as we get closer to Sunday with the latest information. I can already say our team will be chasing on Sunday in East/Northeast Texas but we’ll have also have staff staying back so we can post timely updates on our blog as well. Nevertheless you should NOT use us for real-time warning information once the severe weather is underway in your area. While we do post warnings and information, the best way to get real-time life saving information in a Tornado Warning is by watching your preferred local news station on the internet or on television plus having a smart phone app like WeatherRadio from iMap to let you know the SECOND you come under a weather warning. We’ll be posting safety information and tips on what you can do to be ready as we continue into the weekend.
For those weather-geeks among us here is the full discussion for Sunday from the Storm Prediction Center. I’ve highlighted the section that most non-weather nerds will be able to quickly read without having their brains hurt from weather jargon.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014
VALID 271200Z – 281200Z
…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX AREA…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WRN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND TORNADOES.
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES
TOWARDS NEB. AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL
PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW…CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE
MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE…A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
…MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST…
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML
WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND
ARKLATEX BY SUN AFTERNOON. INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE
SURFACE-BASED OR WILL TRANSITION TO BECOMING SO AS DIURNAL HEATING
ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS N/E.
THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE TOWARDS PEAK HEATING…WITH CONFIDENCE GREATEST IN THIS
OCCURRING NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY STORMS /CENTERED OVER
THE ARKLATEX/. WITH ROBUST HEATING OCCURRING ACROSS TX…MLCAPE
SHOULD PUSH 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HODOGRAPHS APPEAR QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS…CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES. WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING ACROSS NERN TX SUN
EVENING…TRAINING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER N INTO THE MO VALLEY…EARLY DAY
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE RISK. BUT WITH STRONG
INSOLATION…MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY
MERIDIONAL…SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WOULD
SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION…WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather this Afternoon/Evening
The new severe weather outlook for today is out and as expected we still have an enhanced risk of severe weather across the Eastern Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas. That is where confidence is highest in both of storm coverage and severity of the storms. Canadian, Shamrock, Childress, Paducah, and Vernon are a few towns in the enhanced risk zone. Surrounding the enhanced risk zone is our standard possible risk zone where only one or two storms are expected but they could be just as severe as those in the enhanced risk zone. Borger, Silverton, Post, Big Spring, Sweetwater, Abilene, Stamford, Seymour, Graham, and Wichita Falls are a few cities in the possible risk zone.
The strongest supercells will likely produce hail larger than the size of baseballs and winds above 60 MPH. Any dominant supercells could possibly produce one or two tornadoes at or after sunset as surface temperatures fall along with cloud bases (mainly in the enhanced risk zone). Large hail will be the most significant threat today by far.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014
VALID 231200Z – 241200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD…WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH …REACHING THE SRN
ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE…A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.
THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/…SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS CNTRL TX.
LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
KS…STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH…A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT…THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING…WITH INTENSITY WANING
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.
FARTHER S…SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
EVENING…LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL…QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
TIME…COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (Significant Risk) of Severe Weather across eastern Oklahoma for Sunday. That is a significant risk and means widespread severe weather is expected in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. An elevated and standard risk are present across Texas (as shown by the orange line). While this graphic is not as detailed as others I have produced because I’m on a remote computer it does show a large part of Texas does fall in the severe weather risk on Sunday.
There are two scenarios that may play out. The first scenario involves North Texas (generally along and north of Interstate 20) during the afternoon hours on Sunday. There will likely be light rain on Sunday morning as elevated convection forms above the cap. This rain may help weaken the cap enough where it could be breakable by the afternoon heating. This focus point will involve the dryline which should be about 25-40 miles west of Interstate 35/35W Sunday afternoon. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the cap strength and whether or not storms will be able to develop off the dryline Sunday afternoon. Thus there is the potential for no storms Sunday afternoon, one or two storms, or the possibility of multiple storms. Any storm that forms off the dryline will likely become severe rapidly and become a supercell. The atmosphere will be quite unstable and wind shear will be favorable for very organized storms. Thus any supercell storms that develop will be capable of producing hail larger than the size of baseballs, 60 to 80 MPH straight-line and rear flank downdraft winds, and they could also produce tornadoes. Again, confidence in this scenario remains uncertain but there will likely be at least one storm that forms. Even if there is only one supercell that forms off the dryline Sunday afternoon it could produce high-impact severe weather.
By Sunday evening a cold front will move south into Texas with a line/cluster of thunderstorms. This cluster will likely have some strong to severe storms. The tornado threat with this line/cluster would be low but there could be damaging straight-line winds up to 70 MPH along with hail up to the size of half-dollars. These storms would move southeast through Sunday night along the leading edge of the cold front. This threat would feature a lesser severe weather threat compared to Sunday afternoon, but could still make for an active night.
We’ll have updates today regarding the latest information that comes in regarding the setup tomorrow. We should hopefully get a good idea of the setup and provide more specific details.