Good morning and happy Sunday! Just a quick update for everyone on the outlook for today, plus a first look at the Enhanced Risk of severe weather for late Monday into early Tuesday. Light rain showers continue in a band stretching from west Texas into western north texas this morning. We expect this will be the trend today with additional showers and a few isolated thundershowers to develop and traverse this region of the state today and into tonight. For today, here’s an overview of the rain chances and a peek at the simulated radar of how things may look over the next 15 hours. Why 15? That’s as far out as this particular model reaches… 😀
The severe weather threat for tomorrow is increasing. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded the outlook to an Enhanced Risk for the period from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. Very strong dynamics will be in place by Monday afternoon with a strong system overhead, plenty of moisture, a crashing cold front and sufficient instability and shear to produce a chance for isolated supercell thunderstorms to develop across parts of the eastern panhandle, northwest Texas and west central Texas by Monday evening. During the late afternoon/early evening timeframe, when the storms are more isolated, there will be a threat for a few tornadoes. As we get into the 7 to 9pm timeframe, these storms are expected to quickly evolve into a squall line of strong storms along the leading edge of the cold front and blast east across the northern half of the state and towards the I-35 corridor within the midnight to 2am timeframe. Greatest threats with this line of storms will be the potential for very strong winds and damaging hail. Crazy as I may be, I’ll be chasing this Monday evening, but David will be manning the weather desk and will provide updates for everyone throughout the night.
Widespread Rain, Severe Weather, Cold Front and Snow?
It doesn’t take many years of living in Texas to figure out what a mixed bag of weather we’re subjected to throughout the year. It’s like one of those mystery blind bags you get at parties…it feels like you never know what you’re going to get from week to week. That’s what we’re going to discuss in this evening’s blog because this weekend and into the early part of next week is shaping up to be very busy with all types of weather expected across the state. We’ll see widespread rain, a chance for severe weather, a strong cold front and the chance the first snow this season! To make things easier, I’ll break the blog up into sections and discuss each topic one at a time.
The Rain Chances
Another powerful storm system is expected to drop down across the Rockies and into the southwestern US by early Monday. Ahead of and in conjunction with this potent system, pacific moisture and increasing lift will be sweeping across the state from the southwest bringing chances of light rain into the state as early as Saturday with more widespread rain expected to develop by Sunday into early Monday. Rainfall amounts over the weekend are expected to be relatively light, and not everyone will see rain. The rain will begin early Saturday across the southwestern half of the state and move northeast into parts of central Texas by mid-day. At least that’s how it looks right now. As we get into Sunday, the approaching storm system will further aid in generating lift and storms that will further tap into the pacific moisture already in place. At the same time, a surface high will be moving east away from the state which will kick surface winds around from the south to draw additional moisture up from the gulf. This will generate much more widespread rain from west to east across the state through Sunday into early Monday.
The Severe Weather Outlook
While the threat for severe weather looks to be pretty much nonexistent over the weekend, by Monday, we’ll be looking at a chance for strong to severe storms across parts of west central, central and eastern Texas during the afternoon and evenings. Tuesday, we may see that threat continue into the far eastern/southeastern region of the state dependent upon how fast the system moves and what impact a dryline will have as it sets up across west central Texas just ahead of the next cold front. As always, a lot will depend on timing of the system and how much instability is expected to be in place as the best forcing for lift arrives with the upper level system. Right now, the long-range models are showing sufficient instability will be in place by Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday to issue a preliminary outlook. This is in no way a guarantee that we’ll see severe weather…especially when looking at a forecast that is still quite a number of days out. We look at these SPC outlooks as more of a heads-up that conditions will likely have the capability to produce strong storms and we’ll need to keep an eye on this in the days to come. Regardless of whether or not the severe weather materialized, heavy rain will be likely and flooding may return as an issue again across central and eastern Texas.
The Cold Front and…Snow???
Along with the possible threat of severe weather Monday and Tuesday, we’ll have additional widespread rain chances and a strong cold front sweeping in as the upper level system moves over us. A surface low looks to setup over northern Oklahoma which may act to draw moisture from the rain out ahead up and over and around into the panhandle region by early Tuesday. With temperatures expected to be at or near freezing by that time, it’s possible you folks will see your first snow of the season! With temps so warm in the days ahead, the ground will still be much too warm to see much accumulation with any snow that does manage to develop. Again, still too far out to be certain about snow…and because we know you’ll ask…there will NOT be any threat of snow for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area…but we’ll be monitoring this and everything else over the weekend, so be sure to check back each day!
After months of expectation and anticipation we can finally say the rain is on the way. An active period of weather across all of Texas is making for busy times. Since all of Texas is expecting rain at some point this week I’ve broken down this blog into rain chances, severe weather potential, flood risk, and the overall temperature trends. As always there is some uncertainty in the forecast so you can expect refinements during the event. All of that said lets get down to it!
Day by Day breakdown on Rain Chances
Chance of rain/storms Today
Chance of rain/storms Tonight
A few coastal showers are possible in Southeast Texas this afternoon. Otherwise we’ll be looking out west for the beginning of our rain event across Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across Far West Texas, the Permian Basin, the South Plains, and the western two-thirds of the Texas Panhandle. By tonight activity will become widespread across the far western Texas and the New Mexico/Texas border in the South Plains into the Texas Panhandle.
Chance of rain/storms Wednesday
Chance of rain/storms Wednesday Night
Scattered showers and storm chances will spread east on Wednesday to include the Concho Valley, Big Country, South-Central Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. Numerous showers and storm chances will continue for the Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas. Widespread activity will continue Wednesday Night across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Northwest Texas, Permian Basin, Far West Texas, and Southwest Texas.
Chance of rain/storms Thursday
Chance of rain/storms Thursday Night
Widespread/numerous showers and storms will continue on Thursday across the Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, South PLains, Southwest Texas, and South Texas. Scattered activity is forecast across North Texas, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. Numerous showers/storms will spread east into North Texas, Central Texas, and Southeast Texas in addition to previously mentioned areas Thursday Night.
Chance of rain/storms Friday
Chance of rain/storms Friday Night
Friday is going to be very wet across North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, the bIg Country, Concho Valley, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. Those rain chances will continue into Friday Night. By Saturday we should start to see activity diminish in coverage west of Interstate 35 – but it does look wet for some of the football games. We’ll detail the rain chances for the weekend once we get closer.
Forecast Rain Totals
The latest rain total forecast through Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center continues to show a statewide precipitation event. Widespread rain accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected across all of Texas. The only exception may be far Southwest Texas where lighter totals are forecast. Localized rain totals over 5 inches are possible but those exact spots cannot be accurately forecast until we’re within 24 hours (at best). This is going to be our best/most widespread rain event since Tropical Storm Bill back in June and I expect everyone in Texas to get rain by the time this event concludes this weekend.
Flash Flood Potential for Wednesday
Flash Flood Potential for Thursday
Flash flooding is a possibility across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Rolling Plains, Concho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, and North Texas based on the current outlook from the Weather Prediction Center. Folks out in the Permian Basin and West Texas saw a good rain event about two weeks ago while locations further east haven’t seen diddly squat in weeks to months. The flood threat will continue to be evaluated but with very dry conditions its going to take quite a bit of rain to start up the flooding again. Obviously if we see very heavy rain in a short period of time the dry soils will only help so much.
Severe Weather Threat
Severe Weather Outlook for Today
An adequate combination of wind shear and instablity will be present today to support the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms across the South Plains, Permian Basin, and Far West Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a level 2 severe weather risk for Southeast New Mexico, Far West Texas, and western parts of the South Plains. A level 1 marginal risk includes Southwest Texas, the Permian Basin, and the western half of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. The strongest storms today could become supercellular with large hail and localized damaging wind gusts. One or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out but the tornado threat is on the low-end of the spectrum.
Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday
A marginal severe weather risk is in place for Wednesday across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Far West Texas, and parts of the Big Country. Wind shear will be supportive of some organized thunderstorms but widespread cloud cover and precipitation are currently forecast to keep the atmosphere only marginally unstable. As we get closer and localized corridors of instablity become more clear we may see part of the risk area upgraded to a level 2/possible risk in later outlooks. Hail and localized damaging winds would again be the primary issue along with a low tornado threat.
Temperatures will be seasonal during the precipitation event. We likely won’t see much variation in day/night temperatures due to the widespread clouds and precipitation. High temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to mid 80s this week once we get rain going. Locations that are not receiving rain at times this week will be warmer with 80s.
Summer time oh summer time. Gone are the rain showers and here comes the heat. The next few days will likely be the warmest we’ve seen all summer which isn’t saying much considering we’re now just seeing average July temperatures. Rain chances are pretty much zero across all of Texas today. Even the usually dependable seabreeze storms are not expected to occur today. Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s across all of Texas today. South winds will keep things a bit more bearable, but barely. The northeast Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma Panhandle could see temperatures approach 105 degrees this afternoon. Humidity values will be higher along and east of Interstate 35 today. The projected heat index value in the D/FW Metroplex will range from 103 to 106 degrees this afternoon. The same will be said for Northeast, East, and Southeast Texas into Central Texas. I won’t go giving out heat tips – but do realize this is the type of heat that can cause a few issues if you’re not staying hydrated and cool. Another factor is that temperatures really won’t cool off much tonight. The forecast low temperature for Dallas is 78 with mid to upper 70s across the urban corridors. West Texas will see lower 70s along with the rural areas. Tuesday will feature the same weather.
An outbreak of severe weather is expected later today and into tonight across Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Kentucky. Widespread damaging winds are probable with some gusts exceeding hurricane force (75+ MPH). Tornadoes are also a possibility with large hail. When all is said and done this will probably end up being a derecho event which is a long-lived damaging wind bow echo.
Strong/Severe Storms Firing up on the TX Panhandle/NM Border
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing from just northeast of Tucumcari northeast to Texline and Boise City. These thunderstorms are making slow progress to the east/southeast at 15-20 MPH. At the moment these storms are discrete/semi-discrete but we do expect growth into a cluster or line later this evening. Modest wind shear aloft along with ample instablity in the atmosphere will support an organized thunderstorm mode. A severe weather watch is possible this evening as thunderstorms move into Texas from New Mexico. Straightline winds up to 70 MPH along with pocket-change size hail will be possible. The tornado threat is nonzero. Storms will move east/southeast this evening and potentially impact the southern Panhandle and South Plains closer to midnight. Not all storms will be severe. Localized flooding will be a threat as well.