Tag Archives: RAIN

Weather Roundup for Friday July 12th + Pattern Change Coming Next Week!

Good morning!  TGIF!!! A little bit hotter today than yesterday for some areas with highs expected to range from the low 90’s to low 100’s depending upon your location.  Rain chances are a bit lower today than yesterday unfortunately; however, it looks like we can finally begin really yakking about a big pattern change expected to arrive by late this weekend!

First…the rain chances for today.  Minimal at best, but mainly focused in the following areas:  Panhandle region, far southeast Texas along the coast, and far western Texas in the Davis Mountains/Van Horn area.  Below is a peek at what one of the short term forecast models thinks the radar will look like at about 4pm this afternoon.  It was pretty accurate for yesterday, so we’ll see if it can nail it today.

radar 4pm

Here’s a look at the expected highs for today….

Highs today

Now for the “Good Stuff”….next week’s expected weather pattern change!  As we mentioned a few days ago, a very unusual pattern shift was starting to show up in the forecast models.  An area of low pressure was expected to develop over the eastern US and track westward (backwards) and into Texas.  A few days ago, the forecast models had this Low tracking further south across the US and into southern Texas and possibly northern Mexico.  That changed early yesterday with most of the forecast models shifting the Low’s track more to the north.  This more northerly track continues to show up in pretty much all of the models, and our local forecasters are becoming much more confident that we will not only have the chance for a return of cooler weather beginning this Sunday, but also a decent chance of RAIN for early next week!!!!

The graphic below was put together by our friends at the NWS office in Ft. Worth this morning with their take on the track of this Low. This is a very rare weather pattern and forecasters are not confident that the computer models really know what to do with it, so please keep in mind that this could change!!

FWD Next Week

I also wanted to share with you an additional graphic…a computer estimate of how much rain we could potentially receive between now and next Thursday evening.  Again, don’t get your hopes up too high just yet.  The track of this Low could change significantly…like shifting further north which would tend to leave us on the dry side.  But between now and Sunday, get the rain dances going and hopefully we can see an abundance of this lovely vertically descending transparent H2O next week!  I’m sure we’ll have more details for you over the weekend, so stay tuned!!

7pm Thursday precip acumulations

 

 

 

Today’s Weather Roundup – Tuesday May 14th

Good morning and happy Tuesday everyone!  Here’s what we have in store for today.  Increasing chances of RAIN across south/south central Texas beginning this afternoon.  Looks like showers should begin developing late today across the Rio Grande Valley region and a few spots in western Texas as storms develop across northern Mexico and move across the international border.  We’ve got a graphic below showing what the radar might look like at about 7pm tonight.  These storms will continue to develop and increase a little in coverage overnight bringing some much much much needed rain to southern Texas.  Rainfall totals will not be all that spectacular overall, but we’ll take whatever we can get.  Widespread severe storm coverage is unlikely, but a few cells could become strong to severe with hail and gusty winds mainly for southwestern Texas along the Rio Grande.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed a 5% hail Risk for that area this evening.

Highs today inching a few degrees above seasonal norms for the northern portion of the state, pretty close to seasonal norms for the remainder of the state.  Humidity will be on the increase for all but western Texas, and so will the wind speeds, especially for the western half of the state.  Highs for today will range from the mid 70’s and 80’s along the coast, to the mid 80’s and into the low 90’s over the remainder of the state.   Lows tonight will be mild…60’s and 70’s except for a few chilly spots in the northern panhandle.  We will continue to keep you updated on the rain and storm chances today and tomorrow!

SPC Hail Risk area for this afternoon/evening….

spc hail

Forecasted highs for today….

Highs today

 

Forecasted lows for tonight….

Lows tonight

3:45 PM Winter Storm Update for North and Central Texas

As we are now within 24 hours of our upcoming winter weather event, National Weather Service offices have begun issuing products to highlight the threat for snow accumulations. A strong storm system is currently beginning to move into Southwest Texas from Northern Mexico. This storm system will produce significant snowfall accumulations in the Big Bend Country into portions of West Texas. In fact, El Paso just reported 2 inches of snow. David Drummond is handling the storm in the western parts of Texas, so see our other blog posts for information on that part of the state.

I’ll be covering North and Central Texas with this update. The National Weather Service offices in Fort Worth and Austin have each issued Winter Weather Advisories for areas that have the potential to receive between 1 and 3 inches of snowfall accumulation. In order to make it easier for folks to find information for their specific areas, I’ll divide the information up between those two offices.

NWS Fort Worth

Graphicast from NWS Fort Worth

2129

EASTLAND-ERATH-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CISCO…EASTLAND…RANGER…GORMAN…

STEPHENVILLE…DUBLIN…COMANCHE…DE LEON…GOLDTHWAITE…

HAMILTON…HICO…LAMPASAS…COPPERAS COVE…GATESVILLE

300 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

 

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

3 PM CST FRIDAY…

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY.

 

* TIMING…LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALL SNOW WILL END

FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

 

* MAIN IMPACT…SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.

 

* OTHER IMPACTS…SNOW AND ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON SOME

ROADWAYS…ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

 

 

NWS Austin/San Antonio

 

Graphicast from NWS Austin

2130

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU

THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON FRIDAY…

 

.A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE

SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. WITH

COLD AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS

SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. EXPECT PRECIP TO

BEGIN AS A MIXTURE DURING THE EVENING AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW

BY AROUND 10 PM AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING

THE DAY FRIDAY WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BY AROUND

NOON. BEFORE THE CHANGE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION RANGING FROM A

DUSTING TO AROUND ONE INCH WITH A FEW SPOTS HAVING A BIT MORE.

THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.

 

TXZ171-172-188-040545-

/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.130104T0100Z-130104T1800Z/

LLANO-BURNET-GILLESPIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LLANO…BURNET…FREDERICKSBURG

333 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

 

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

NOON CST FRIDAY…

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM

THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY.

 

* TIMING…RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND

CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING.

 

* MAIN IMPACT…SNOW UP TO ONE INCH WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

 

* OTHER IMPACTS…THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT SNOW WILL BREAK OFF

WEAK TREE BRANCHES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW…SLEET…OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

 

&&

 

$$

 

TXZ183>186-040545-

/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.130104T0100Z-130104T1800Z/

VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DEL RIO…ROCKSPRINGS…LEAKEY…

KERRVILLE

333 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

 

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING

TO NOON CST FRIDAY…

 

* TIMING…RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND

CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING.

 

* MAIN IMPACT…SNOW UP TO ONE INCH WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

 

* OTHER IMPACTS…THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT SNOW WILL BREAK OFF

WEAK TREE BRANCHES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW…SLEET…OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

Cold Front Has Cleared the State!!

For all the folks in the southern part of the state that have been wondering when the cold front was going to get to them, it’s HERE!!  Looks like the front finished moving through the entire state just before sunrise this morning.  The current mesonet graphic is posted below showing surface temps as of about 7:45am this morning.

Current surface temps 7:45am

 

Highs today will range from the 30’s to 40’s for most of the state, and some 50’s down in deep south Texas.  Lows overnight will drop into the teens and 20’s for northern parts of the state, and at or near freezing for the southern areas.  This chill will last for a few more days before we get a warmup, and additional RAIN chances may arrive later this week!

Today’s forecasted highs

 

Tomorrow Morning’s Forecasted Lows

Hot Weekend Ahead but Weak Cold Fronts Arrive Saturday/Sunday

Looks like we have record breaking heat upon us once again for today and Saturday.  Ugh.  Quite a few areas in the state are expected to break high temp records today.  Dallas’ record is 86 for this date, and we’re expected to easily break that before 6pm today.  Feels more like September than the first of November.  However….we do have two weak cold fronts that are expected to bring at least a little relief for the northern and central parts of the state and drop us back down to more seasonable temps during the weekend and the early part of next week.

The first cold front is expected to begin slowly moving across the panhandle and central Oklahoma today and stall out.  Saturday, it’s projected to move a little further south into north Texas and stall again just south of the DFW area.  Sunday, another weak front catches up with it and pushes it down into central Texas.  Moisture pooling up ahead of the front in the southern part of the state will bring some chances for showers mainly for areas south of Austin/San Antonio today and into Saturday.  The frontal passage itself on Saturday, and further south on Sunday, is not expected to create enough atmospheric fuss to cause much in the way of storm or severe weather development.  Most of the rain chances ahead of the front will be off in northeast Texas and down west of the Hill Country area.  I have a graphic below which shows the areas currently expected to receive precipitation as a result of Saturday‘s frontal passage.  Rain may also develop behind the front over north Texas.  Overall, most will not see rain and our thirsty grass and trees will remain…thirsty.  :>(

Ok, so lets start with some temp graphics.  Below are the projected highs for today.  As you can see, most of the state will be in at least the mid 80’s, some places higher, and some 70’s for the panhandle as the first weak cold front begins to move through.

[caption id=”attachment_10105″ align=”aligncenter” width=”600″]width=”600″ height=”450″ /> Projected highs for Friday[/caption]

FOOTBALL!!!! Here’s the forecasted temps for Friday night football.  Not bad!  Won’t need your stadium blanket anywhere except maybe the panhandle.

[caption id=”attachment_10106″ align=”aligncenter” width=”600″]width=”600″ height=”450″ /> 8pm Friday Night Football temps[/caption]

 

Below are the projected low temps across the state for Saturday morning.   Pretty easy to see how far the cold front will have made it by 7am Saturday morning.

[caption id=”attachment_10107″ align=”aligncenter” width=”600″]width=”600″ height=”450″ /> Projected low temps for Saturday morning[/caption]

 

Projected highs for Saturday!  Again, pretty easy to see that this front will be a slug bug and not make much progress during the day on Saturday.

[caption id=”attachment_10108″ align=”aligncenter” width=”600″]width=”600″ height=”450″ /> Projected highs for Saturday[/caption]

 

Here’s your lows for early Sunday morning.  You can tell the front will pretty much cut the state in 1/2 diagonally by this time.

width=”600″ height=”450″ />

 

OK, now for the RAIN graphic.  Don’t get too caught up on the exact location of the rain on this forecast graphic…what we want to focus on is where rain is trended to develop ahead of the cold front.  This particular forecast graphic is as of 10pm Saturday night.

[caption id=”attachment_10111″ align=”aligncenter” width=”600″]width=”600″ height=”450″ /> Projected areas that can expect rainfall 10pm Saturday[/caption]

 

High temps for Sunday are expected to relax a little and be more seasonable for all but deep south
Texas.  Better news….we are monitoring for a fairly significant weather pattern change to occur around the middle of the month which could bring colder temps and better chances for some rain.   We’ll update you as we get more data.

Have a great day and weekend!!! ~Jenny

@TxStormChasers

/TxStormChasers

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