Good Wednesday Morning! A line of showers with embedded storms is impacting parts of Central, North, and Northeast Texas. The leading edge extends from San Saba northeast to Hillsboro, Mineola, to Texarkana. Some parts of the line are more potent than others with frequent lightning and heavy rain.
The area of precipitation will continue to make southward progress today. We do expect weakening with mostly non-thunderstorm activity anticipated across Central and East Texas later this morning. We may seen an uptick of activity across the Big Country and South-Central Texas this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected today.
Rain accumulation forecast through Friday
The weak cold front responsible for the ongoing precipitation will continue to move south today. It will become stationary on Thursday with additional precipitation chances. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with the upcoming activity. Overall rain accumulations will average a quarter of an inch up to an inch. The few lucky folks may receive up to two inches of rain through Friday.
Chance of precipitation Wednesday (Today)
Chance of precipitation Wednesday Night (Tonight)
Chance of precipitation Thursday
Chance of precipitation Thursday Night
Chance of precipitation Friday
Chance of precipitation Friday Night
While by definition we are dealing with a cold front its not an impressive one. Cloud cover and the rain chances will help knock temperatures back down to seasonal averages with upper 80s to mid 90s. For tonight we’ll see temperatures drop back into the 60s and 70s. Dewpoint values won’t drop off much with the cold front so it will continue to be humid.
North winds will help keep temperatures steady-state through Saturday with seasonally average high and low temperatures. By Sunday and into next week south winds will push temperatures back up with dry weather once again. As we continue into mid-September the cold front intrusions should start to become more frequent along with active weather.
Good Rain Chances Tonight; Near Record Lows Possible Tonight for parts of TX!
Wednesday, 19 August 2015 06:08
The southeastern Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas are seeing rain and a few thunderstorms this morning. At the time of this writing a few storms are also underway around Amarillo and near Lubbock. Activity is moving southeast in association with an outflow boundary and cold front. Gusty winds are possible with this activity.
Rain/Storm Chances Today
Rain/Storm Chances Tonight
Rain/Storm chances on Thursday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today across the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and Central Texas. More isolated activity is possible in South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and West Texas later today. Rain and storm chances will continue tonight with the rainless streak at D/FW, Waco, and most of East Texas expected to come to an end. On Thursday scattered rain and storms will continue to push south and eventually clear most of Texas, except the Rio Grande Valley, Thursday Night. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the stronger activity.
While fairly normal during the winter months one would not expect to see a 30-35 degree temperature difference in August across Texas. Folks south of the cold front, roughly along and south of Interstate 20, will see high temperatures in the 90s to low 100s today. Folks in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Northwest Texas will remain in the upper 60s to 70s today. Our neighbors in Oklahoma may not get out of the 60s today. For Thursday temperatures will top out in the low to upper 80s north of Interstate 10. Low to mid 90s can be expected south of Interstate 10 into the Rio Grande Valley – a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.
I’ve saved the best part of this forecast for last. Now I’ll go ahead and say for those in South Texas, Southeast Texas, and Deep South Texas you’re going to be warm and humid tonight since the front will not have reached you yet. However if you’re north of the front tonight is going to be a treat. Amarillo should get down to 52 degrees tonight with dewpoints in the 40s. Mid to upper 50s are expected tonight across West Texas and Northwest Texas. Low to mid 60s will dominate the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Big Country, North, and NOrtheast Texas. Upper 60s to lower 70s can be expected across Central and East Texas into the Big Country as well. Remember this is mid August in Texas folks. The fact we’re talking about low temperatures in the 50s is fairly rare. Wichita Falls will be close to setting a record low temperature tonight. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few upper 40s tonight in the Texas Panhandle – incredible for August.
Strong Storms Expected Later Today & Tonight with Weak Cold Front
Friday, 26 June 2015 13:40
A weak cold front currently located across the southern Texas Panhandle east into southern Oklahoma will continue to slowly move south this afternoon. Winds north of the boundary are out of the north with only a minor temperature drop. This boundary will become a focal point for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.
There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon with storms that fire up on that boundary. They’ll also make progress south. The strongest storms will be capable of producing 1.00-1.25″ diameter hail along with wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rain are always threats with summer storms. The threat for severe weather will lower late this evening as storms push closer to Interstate 20.
I believe the Texas Tech WRF has a good handle on what we can expect through late tonight so I’ll share a few simulated radar images. As usual don’t expect things to look exactly like what the weather model shows.
TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 7 PM CT
TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 10 PM CT
TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 1 AM CT Saturday
TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 4 AM CT Saturday
Weather Roundup for Friday July 12th + Pattern Change Coming Next Week!
Friday, 12 July 2013 07:46
Good morning! TGIF!!! A little bit hotter today than yesterday for some areas with highs expected to range from the low 90’s to low 100’s depending upon your location. Rain chances are a bit lower today than yesterday unfortunately; however, it looks like we can finally begin really yakking about a big pattern change expected to arrive by late this weekend!
First…the rain chances for today. Minimal at best, but mainly focused in the following areas: Panhandle region, far southeast Texas along the coast, and far western Texas in the Davis Mountains/Van Horn area. Below is a peek at what one of the short term forecast models thinks the radar will look like at about 4pm this afternoon. It was pretty accurate for yesterday, so we’ll see if it can nail it today.
Here’s a look at the expected highs for today….
Now for the “Good Stuff”….next week’s expected weather pattern change! As we mentioned a few days ago, a very unusual pattern shift was starting to show up in the forecast models. An area of low pressure was expected to develop over the eastern US and track westward (backwards) and into Texas. A few days ago, the forecast models had this Low tracking further south across the US and into southern Texas and possibly northern Mexico. That changed early yesterday with most of the forecast models shifting the Low’s track more to the north. This more northerly track continues to show up in pretty much all of the models, and our local forecasters are becoming much more confident that we will not only have the chance for a return of cooler weather beginning this Sunday, but also a decent chance of RAIN for early next week!!!!
The graphic below was put together by our friends at the NWS office in Ft. Worth this morning with their take on the track of this Low. This is a very rare weather pattern and forecasters are not confident that the computer models really know what to do with it, so please keep in mind that this could change!!
I also wanted to share with you an additional graphic…a computer estimate of how much rain we could potentially receive between now and next Thursday evening. Again, don’t get your hopes up too high just yet. The track of this Low could change significantly…like shifting further north which would tend to leave us on the dry side. But between now and Sunday, get the rain dances going and hopefully we can see an abundance of this lovely vertically descending transparent H2O next week! I’m sure we’ll have more details for you over the weekend, so stay tuned!!
Today’s Weather Roundup – Tuesday May 14th
Tuesday, 14 May 2013 07:49
Good morning and happy Tuesday everyone! Here’s what we have in store for today. Increasing chances of RAIN across south/south central Texas beginning this afternoon. Looks like showers should begin developing late today across the Rio Grande Valley region and a few spots in western Texas as storms develop across northern Mexico and move across the international border. We’ve got a graphic below showing what the radar might look like at about 7pm tonight. These storms will continue to develop and increase a little in coverage overnight bringing some much much much needed rain to southern Texas. Rainfall totals will not be all that spectacular overall, but we’ll take whatever we can get. Widespread severe storm coverage is unlikely, but a few cells could become strong to severe with hail and gusty winds mainly for southwestern Texas along the Rio Grande. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a 5% hail Risk for that area this evening.
Highs today inching a few degrees above seasonal norms for the northern portion of the state, pretty close to seasonal norms for the remainder of the state. Humidity will be on the increase for all but western Texas, and so will the wind speeds, especially for the western half of the state. Highs for today will range from the mid 70’s and 80’s along the coast, to the mid 80’s and into the low 90’s over the remainder of the state. Lows tonight will be mild…60’s and 70’s except for a few chilly spots in the northern panhandle. We will continue to keep you updated on the rain and storm chances today and tomorrow!