Tag Archives: RAIN

Good Rain Chances Tonight; Near Record Lows Possible Tonight for parts of TX!

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The southeastern Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas are seeing rain and a few thunderstorms this morning. At the time of this writing a few storms are also underway around Amarillo and near Lubbock. Activity is moving southeast in association with an outflow boundary and cold front. Gusty winds are possible with this activity.

Rain/Storm Chances Today

Rain/Storm Chances Today

Rain/Storm Chances Tonight

Rain/Storm Chances Tonight

Rain/Storm chances on Thursday

Rain/Storm chances on Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today across the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and Central Texas. More isolated activity is possible in South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and West Texas later today. Rain and storm chances will continue tonight with the rainless streak at D/FW, Waco, and most of East Texas expected to come to an end. On Thursday scattered rain and storms will continue to push south and eventually clear most of Texas, except the Rio Grande Valley, Thursday Night. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible with the stronger activity.

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While fairly normal during the winter months one would not expect to see a 30-35 degree temperature difference in August across Texas. Folks south of the cold front, roughly along and south of Interstate 20, will see high temperatures in the 90s to low 100s today. Folks in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Northwest Texas will remain in the upper 60s to 70s today. Our neighbors in Oklahoma may not get out of the 60s today. For Thursday temperatures will top out in the low to upper 80s north of Interstate 10. Low to mid 90s can be expected south of Interstate 10 into the Rio Grande Valley – a good 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today.

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I’ve saved the best part of this forecast for last. Now I’ll go ahead and say for those in South Texas, Southeast Texas, and Deep South Texas you’re going to be warm and humid tonight since the front will not have reached you yet. However if you’re north of the front tonight is going to be a treat. Amarillo should get down to 52 degrees tonight with dewpoints in the 40s. Mid to upper 50s are expected tonight across West Texas and Northwest Texas. Low to mid 60s will dominate the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Big Country, North, and NOrtheast Texas. Upper 60s to lower 70s can be expected across Central and East Texas into the Big Country as well. Remember this is mid August in Texas folks. The fact we’re talking about low temperatures in the 50s is fairly rare. Wichita Falls will be close to setting a record low temperature tonight. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few upper 40s tonight in the Texas Panhandle – incredible for August.

Strong Storms Expected Later Today & Tonight with Weak Cold Front

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A weak cold front currently located across the southern Texas Panhandle east into southern Oklahoma will continue to slowly move south this afternoon. Winds north of the boundary are out of the north with only a minor temperature drop. This boundary will become a focal point for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon.

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon with storms that fire up on that boundary. They’ll also make progress south. The strongest storms will be capable of producing 1.00-1.25″ diameter hail along with wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rain are always threats with summer storms. The threat for severe weather will lower late this evening as storms push closer to Interstate 20.

I believe the Texas Tech WRF has a good handle on what we can expect through late tonight so I’ll share a few simulated radar images. As usual don’t expect things to look exactly like what the weather model shows.

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 7 PM CT

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 7 PM CT

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 10 PM CT

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 10 PM CT

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 1 AM CT Saturday

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 1 AM CT Saturday

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 4 AM CT Saturday

TTU WRF Simulated Radar at 4 AM CT Saturday

Weather Roundup for Friday July 12th + Pattern Change Coming Next Week!

Good morning!  TGIF!!! A little bit hotter today than yesterday for some areas with highs expected to range from the low 90’s to low 100’s depending upon your location.  Rain chances are a bit lower today than yesterday unfortunately; however, it looks like we can finally begin really yakking about a big pattern change expected to arrive by late this weekend!

First…the rain chances for today.  Minimal at best, but mainly focused in the following areas:  Panhandle region, far southeast Texas along the coast, and far western Texas in the Davis Mountains/Van Horn area.  Below is a peek at what one of the short term forecast models thinks the radar will look like at about 4pm this afternoon.  It was pretty accurate for yesterday, so we’ll see if it can nail it today.

radar 4pm

Here’s a look at the expected highs for today….

Highs today

Now for the “Good Stuff”….next week’s expected weather pattern change!  As we mentioned a few days ago, a very unusual pattern shift was starting to show up in the forecast models.  An area of low pressure was expected to develop over the eastern US and track westward (backwards) and into Texas.  A few days ago, the forecast models had this Low tracking further south across the US and into southern Texas and possibly northern Mexico.  That changed early yesterday with most of the forecast models shifting the Low’s track more to the north.  This more northerly track continues to show up in pretty much all of the models, and our local forecasters are becoming much more confident that we will not only have the chance for a return of cooler weather beginning this Sunday, but also a decent chance of RAIN for early next week!!!!

The graphic below was put together by our friends at the NWS office in Ft. Worth this morning with their take on the track of this Low. This is a very rare weather pattern and forecasters are not confident that the computer models really know what to do with it, so please keep in mind that this could change!!

FWD Next Week

I also wanted to share with you an additional graphic…a computer estimate of how much rain we could potentially receive between now and next Thursday evening.  Again, don’t get your hopes up too high just yet.  The track of this Low could change significantly…like shifting further north which would tend to leave us on the dry side.  But between now and Sunday, get the rain dances going and hopefully we can see an abundance of this lovely vertically descending transparent H2O next week!  I’m sure we’ll have more details for you over the weekend, so stay tuned!!

7pm Thursday precip acumulations

 

 

 

Today’s Weather Roundup – Tuesday May 14th

Good morning and happy Tuesday everyone!  Here’s what we have in store for today.  Increasing chances of RAIN across south/south central Texas beginning this afternoon.  Looks like showers should begin developing late today across the Rio Grande Valley region and a few spots in western Texas as storms develop across northern Mexico and move across the international border.  We’ve got a graphic below showing what the radar might look like at about 7pm tonight.  These storms will continue to develop and increase a little in coverage overnight bringing some much much much needed rain to southern Texas.  Rainfall totals will not be all that spectacular overall, but we’ll take whatever we can get.  Widespread severe storm coverage is unlikely, but a few cells could become strong to severe with hail and gusty winds mainly for southwestern Texas along the Rio Grande.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed a 5% hail Risk for that area this evening.

Highs today inching a few degrees above seasonal norms for the northern portion of the state, pretty close to seasonal norms for the remainder of the state.  Humidity will be on the increase for all but western Texas, and so will the wind speeds, especially for the western half of the state.  Highs for today will range from the mid 70’s and 80’s along the coast, to the mid 80’s and into the low 90’s over the remainder of the state.   Lows tonight will be mild…60’s and 70’s except for a few chilly spots in the northern panhandle.  We will continue to keep you updated on the rain and storm chances today and tomorrow!

SPC Hail Risk area for this afternoon/evening….

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Forecasted highs for today….

Highs today

 

Forecasted lows for tonight….

Lows tonight

3:45 PM Winter Storm Update for North and Central Texas

As we are now within 24 hours of our upcoming winter weather event, National Weather Service offices have begun issuing products to highlight the threat for snow accumulations. A strong storm system is currently beginning to move into Southwest Texas from Northern Mexico. This storm system will produce significant snowfall accumulations in the Big Bend Country into portions of West Texas. In fact, El Paso just reported 2 inches of snow. David Drummond is handling the storm in the western parts of Texas, so see our other blog posts for information on that part of the state.

I’ll be covering North and Central Texas with this update. The National Weather Service offices in Fort Worth and Austin have each issued Winter Weather Advisories for areas that have the potential to receive between 1 and 3 inches of snowfall accumulation. In order to make it easier for folks to find information for their specific areas, I’ll divide the information up between those two offices.

NWS Fort Worth

Graphicast from NWS Fort Worth

2129

EASTLAND-ERATH-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…CISCO…EASTLAND…RANGER…GORMAN…

STEPHENVILLE…DUBLIN…COMANCHE…DE LEON…GOLDTHWAITE…

HAMILTON…HICO…LAMPASAS…COPPERAS COVE…GATESVILLE

300 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

 

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

3 PM CST FRIDAY…

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT

TONIGHT UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY.

 

* TIMING…LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHORTLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ALL SNOW WILL END

FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

 

* MAIN IMPACT…SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES.

 

* OTHER IMPACTS…SNOW AND ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON SOME

ROADWAYS…ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

 

 

NWS Austin/San Antonio

 

Graphicast from NWS Austin

2130

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU

THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON FRIDAY…

 

.A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE

SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. WITH

COLD AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS

SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. EXPECT PRECIP TO

BEGIN AS A MIXTURE DURING THE EVENING AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW

BY AROUND 10 PM AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING

THE DAY FRIDAY WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN BY AROUND

NOON. BEFORE THE CHANGE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATION RANGING FROM A

DUSTING TO AROUND ONE INCH WITH A FEW SPOTS HAVING A BIT MORE.

THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY.

 

TXZ171-172-188-040545-

/O.EXB.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.130104T0100Z-130104T1800Z/

LLANO-BURNET-GILLESPIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LLANO…BURNET…FREDERICKSBURG

333 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

 

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

NOON CST FRIDAY…

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM

THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY.

 

* TIMING…RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND

CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING.

 

* MAIN IMPACT…SNOW UP TO ONE INCH WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

 

* OTHER IMPACTS…THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT SNOW WILL BREAK OFF

WEAK TREE BRANCHES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW…SLEET…OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

 

&&

 

$$

 

TXZ183>186-040545-

/O.EXT.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.130104T0100Z-130104T1800Z/

VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DEL RIO…ROCKSPRINGS…LEAKEY…

KERRVILLE

333 PM CST THU JAN 3 2013

 

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING

TO NOON CST FRIDAY…

 

* TIMING…RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND

CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THIS EVENING.

 

* MAIN IMPACT…SNOW UP TO ONE INCH WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

 

* OTHER IMPACTS…THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT SNOW WILL BREAK OFF

WEAK TREE BRANCHES.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW…SLEET…OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

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