Tag Archives: PM

Severe Storms Possible Tonight in North Texas

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A weak storm system will move over portions of North Texas later tonight and during the early morning hours on Monday. Combined with an increasing northwest flow aloft and a modest low level jet there will likely be enough to cause a few thunderstorms to develop. Southerly winds have caused dew point values to increase into the upper 50s and lower 60s across North Texas today. Moisture levels will also be on the increase tonight as the low level jet pumps moisture into the atmosphere from the Gulf of Mexico. Mixed-layer instability values will also be elevated late tonight thanks to the increasing moisture and cooler temperatures aloft. The combination of ingredients is supportive of an organized convective mode. Storms tonight will be elevated in nature meaning they are rooted about the surface and inversion layer (cap). Elevated thunderstorms generally have a minimal risk for tornadoes or damaging winds since they’re rooted well above the surface instability layer. However the risk for large hail will definitely exist since storms will still have plenty of instability and wind shear to work with tonight.

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The Storm Prediction Center has not highlighted an official severe weather outlook zone but does note the potential for isolated severe weather in the form of hali up to the size of golfballs. Not all storms will produce large hail nor will all storms be severe. Nevertheless ingredients are there for the strongest storms to possibly produce hail in the quarter to golf ball range. I wouldn’t be shocked to see SPC add a small ‘possible’ risk zone for severe weather in their new outlook issued around 8 PM. The risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are both minimal. This will not be anything like Thursday’s event in terms of widespread wind damage considering we’re not even anticipating a damaging wind threat to develop in the first place.

The nature of tonight’s weak shortwave means thunderstorm coverage will not become widespread. We’re expecting a couple of scattered storms or perhaps a small complex of storms to develop after 10 PM west of the D/FW Metroplex in Western North Texas. These storms will generally move southeast and impact the I-35 corridor after midnight. Since the shortwave itself is so small/weak weather models are having a tough time pinpointing exactly where the storms will develop and move tonight. The storms could either move directly into the D/FW Metroplex or skirt the metroplex to the south/west towards Granbury and Hillsboro. That’s something we’ll just have to nowcast and watch as storms develop later on. Here is an animation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh weather model showing what it believes storms will do later tonight. Notice it keeps most activity south of the D/FW Metroplex but does have a couple storms actually impact the southern metro. Other runs have been further north and a bit further south. Don’t take this projection to heart as storms will probably not move over the exact areas depicted in the animation. Still it gives a good idea of what kind of event we can expect tonight.

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Severe Storm Warning for McLennan County till 7:15 PM

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for McLennan County until 7:15 PM including the City of Waco. A severe thunderstorm is located near Crawford moving east at 35 MPH. This storm is capable of producing quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH. Lightning and heavy rain are also occuring so move indoors if outside as this storm approaches.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
MCLENNAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 614 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CRAWFORD…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
WOODWAY AND HEWITT AROUND 635 PM…
WACO…BEVERLY HILLS AND ROBINSON AROUND 640 PM…
LACY-LAKEVIEW AROUND 645 PM…
NORTHCREST AND BELLMEAD AROUND 650 PM…

5:45 PM Severe Weather Update

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A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to progress east across North and now parts of Central Texas. Behind the line of storms skies quickly clear and its a fairly beautiful late afternoon. I’m assuming most of you have already seen some of the wind damage photos out of the D/FW Metroplex so I’ll spare you from rehashing all of that. At 5:45 PM the leading edge of the storms was alone a line from 10 miles east of Paris, Wills Point, southwest to Ennis. From there a broken line of storms extends to just west of West, TX to Evant. These storms are moving east at 30 to 45 MPH. The strongest storms in Northeast/East Texas have a continued history of producing wind gusts up to 80 MPH with significant wind damage. Hail up to the size of golfballs has been common with the strongest hail cores. The largest hail we saw earlier was near baseballs in Podner and Denton but that was while storms where discrete and not linear.

I see little reason why these storms won’t continue to move east for the next several hours. Continued development to the south along the cold front is expected and Central Texas will start dealing with more severe weather within the next hour or two. Severe weather in the form of large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. With so many warnings in effect we simply cannot share them all. The best way to keep up with storms in your area is to use the local weather pages and our interactive radar at www.texasstormchasers.com/radar

Severe Storm Warning: Bosque, Hill, McLennan Counties till 6 PM

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of Bosque, Hill, and McLennan Counties in Central Texas. A severe thunderstorm with supercellular characteristics is located 10 miles southwest of Lake Whitney State Park and is moving east at 35 MPH. This storm is capable of producing golf ball size hail and damaging winds over 60 MPH. This storm should cross Interstate 35 near Abbott and West passing between Hillsboro and Waco.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
502 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN BOSQUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
SOUTHERN HILL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
NORTHERN MCLENNAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 502 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK AND WHITNEY AROUND 510 PM…
WEST AND HILLSBORO AROUND 535 PM…
BYNUM AROUND 545 PM…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE…SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE…AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

Destructive Winds Moving into Dallas County; Damage Reported in Arlington

A dangerous thunderstorm with a history of producing wind damage in Arlington including at the High School is moving into western Dallas County. This storm is capable of producing wind gusts up to 75 MPH and has a history of producing significant wind damage in Arlington! Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 5 Pm for Dallas County until Irving, Grand Prairie, Duncanville, and Dallas. The 70-80 MPH winds are moving east along I-30 and folks should be ready for damaging west winds!

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 358 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
WEST OF GRAND PRAIRIE…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR…
IRVING…DUNCANVILLE AND COPPELL AROUND 415 PM…
COCKRELL HILL AND DESOTO AROUND 420 PM…
DALLAS AROUND 430 PM…

 

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