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830PM Severe Weather Update; Squall Line organizing as it marches east

At 8:20 PM a line of severe thunderstorms extended from just west of Nocona south along a line to Jacksboro, Palo Pinto, Rising Star, to 15 miles west of Coleman. Additional storms extended from 15 miles south of San Angelo to 10 miles northwest of Eldorado. Most of this activity is moving east at 35 to 40 MPH. We are also watching a small cluster of storms in Denton county moving north into Cooke county – this storm may become a hail threat over the next few minutes. The strongest storms in this line have a history of producing wind damage in Wichita Falls with wind gusts measured up to 70 MPH. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds over 70 MPH, quarter size hail, and isolated tornadoes as it moves east towards I-35. At present course this line will likely move into the D/FW Metroplex between 10 PM and 12 AM. The line itself may strengthen with an enhancement of straight line winds possible. We’ll watch trends closely since if the line organizes more it could start producing brief tornadoes. Any discrete storms that develop ahead of the squall line could become supercellular with a tornado risk tonight. That isn’t expected to become a widespread/significant issue but its something we’ll have to watch for tonight.

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The 0Z HRRR weather model has the line of storms extending from near Paris to Corsicana to Waco at 2 AM – although I’m not sure it’ll take that long for the storms to impact Central Texas. We also note the HRRR starts to intensify the storms south of San Angelo into a second line/complex as they move towards San Antonio and Austin this evening. Large hail and damaging straight line winds would be possible with this cluster. The line of storms – in a weakened state compared to what will impact North Texas tonight – will be moving into Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains after 4 AM. Some storms may still be strong.

Updated Severe Weather Outlook for Tomorrow

The updated severe weather outlook for Tuesday evening and Tuesday night continues to look active across Texas. We note the category 4 (moderate) risk area is now sitting on the Red River. Getting a bit more concerned about a higher coverage of severe storms in North Texas and Texoma tomorrow. We’ll have a detailed forecast update after 3 PM. Just pay attention to the weather and we’ll be alright!

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch for West-Central Texas and Northwest Texas until 2 AM CT

The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service have issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Northwest Texas and West-Central Texas. This watch runs until 2 AM and includes Lubbock, Post, Aspermont, Seymour, Vernon, Childress, Paducah, Shamrock, and Memphis. A line of severe thunderstorms now extends from near Clarendon southwest to Plainview. These storms are moving southeast at 25 to 30 MPH. The strongest storms may produce hail up to the size of golfballs and localized damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH. Please see our 8 PM blog update timing aspects on when the storms may arrive in North Texas and the Big Country.

ww0099_overview_big_wou

 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 99
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   815 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
     PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 815 PM
     UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...A BOWING BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST TEXAS VICINITY.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS WITHIN THE BAND.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF
   CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Severe Thunderstorms Possible in South Texas & RGV Later Today

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed South Texas, the Middle Texas Coast, and the Rio Grande Valley in a standard category 2 severe weather risk for the late afternoon and evening hours. Morning weather model guidance suggests the atmosphere will become moderately unstable this afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. With dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s the atmosphere will certainly be locked and loaded with energy. Wind shear values will also be supportive of organized thunderstorms. We’ll likely see thunderstorm initiation south of Interstate 10 by the late afternoon hours. Storms will slowly progress south into South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley this evening. Initial storms may be supercellular with a threat of large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. Eventually storms should congeal into a cluster or line by mid-evening and move south. With time the severe weather threat should become spotty hail and localized 60+ MPH wind gusts. Flash flooding will also be possible due to the slow storm movement and heavy rainfall rates.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 7 PM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 7 PM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 10 PM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 10 PM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 12 AM this evening.

12Z Experimental HRRR at 12 AM this evening.

Tornado Warning for Atascosa County in S TX until 4:45 PM

Tornado Warning for southwestern Atascosa county in South-Central Texas until 4:45 PM. A possible tornado is located just south of Charlotte and the storm is moving north at 10 MPH. This warning does not include Jourdanton or Pleasanton. No travel advised on Highway 97 west of Jourdanton at this time.

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
414 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 414 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CHARLOTTE…MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS…AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
CHARLOTTE AROUND 445 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE DAVIS…
DOBROWOLSKI AND AMPHION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS…IN A
MOBILE HOME…OR IN A VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.