Tag Archives: PM

Winds Will Rapidly Increase Soon across West Texas & Permian Basin

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Winds have been slow to increase across West Texas and the Permian Basin this morning. That is due to the upper level storm system running a bit slower than planned. Over the past hour we’ve seen wind speeds rapidly increase across eastern New Mexico and in the higher terrain of Far West Texas. A boundary is quickly moving east across the South Plains. Temperatures rapidly increase along with a quick decrease in dewpoint values as that boundary moves over a given location. Winds also rapidly increase with gusts already up to 50+ MPH. At the same time a very strong jetstream is moving into Far West Texas and the Permian Basin. This jetstream will eject east into the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and Permian Basin over the next three hours. As that occurs those strong winds will mix down to the surface. Winds at 18,000 feet ASL will exceed 140 MPH – something we don’t actually see that often in Texas. Not all of that wind will mix down to the surface but we are expecting gusts to approach 60 MPH. The higher elevations in Far West Texas – such as the Guadalupe mountains – could see wind gusts approach 80 to 90 MPH this afternoon. Winds will be highest from 2 PM this afternoon through about 6 PM. After sunset an inversion will start to help winds at the surface decrease. Widespread blowing dust is expected across the southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling Plains, Permian Basin, into Far West Texas this afternoon. Some of the dust could become dense – especially where the highest wind gusts set up. Its possible a few elevated showers may occur across the Texas Panhandle through early evening. No severe weather is expected. The fire danger will be critical across the regions listed above and into the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, Hill Country, and western North and Central Texas through sunset.

Tornado Warning: Jasper, Newton, and Tyler Counties till 12:45 PM

Two tornado warnings have been issued. One for northeast Jasper county and northwest Newton county until 12:45 PM. Farrsville and Burkeville should move to shelter. The second warning is for northwest Tyler and northwest Jasper county until 12:45 PM. Chester, Colmesneil, and Rockland need to move to shelter. Both storms are moving northeast at 30-40 MPH.

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1202 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JASPER…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
HARRISBURG AND JAMESTOWN AROUND 1215 PM CST.
FARRSVILLE AROUND 1220 PM CST.
BURKEVILLE AROUND 1235 PM CST.
MAYFLOWER AROUND 1240 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
WIERGATE AND HOLLY SPRINGS.

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1204 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHWESTERN TYLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1204 PM CST…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CHESTER…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
COLMESNEIL AROUND 1225 PM CST.
ROCKLAND AROUND 1235 PM CST.

Tornado Watch Issued for Extreme East and Far Southeast Texas

A Tornado Watch has been issued for extreme East-Central and Far Southeast Texas. This watch is in effect until 7 PM although I expect it’ll be cancelled by mid-afternoon for the Texas counties. The watch runs along and east of a Nacogdoches-Livingston-Liberty line. Center, hemphill, Lumberton, and Port Arthur are included in this watch. I expect storms will exit Texas to the east by 3-4 PM. The primary threat will be quarter size hail and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. A tornado is not out of the question but the risk increases as storms move into Louisiana.

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TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY…SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND
INTENSIFY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES…IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

Severe Storm Risk across Southeast Texas This Evening

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A portion of the severe weather outlook has been upgraded to level 3 (Enhanced). Houston, Liberty, Lumberton, Beaumont, Kirbyville, and Orange are all included cities included in the level 3 zone. A level 2 (elevated risk) includes all of Southeast Texas. A level 1 (marginal risk) zone includes Northeast Texas and East Texas. The enhanced risk zone was added where confidence is highest that a few severe storms will occur this evening and tonight. Large hail remains the primary concern with this evening’s storms in all three zones. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out in the enhanced risk zone.

One model's simulated radar around 7-8 PM this evening

One model’s simulated radar around 7-8 PM this evening

Thunderstorm development is anticipated between 6 PM and 8 PM near the Houston metro. Those storms will move east/northeast and exit Texas by 2 AM. Compared to earlier this morning it does look like things may be an hour or two slower. That’s why we’ve moved the timing back by two hours. Thunderstorm coverage should increase after 8 PM across East and Southeast Texas. The atmosphere will be most unstable east of Interstate 45 and within 75-100 miles of the coast. That is the zone where the severe weather risk will be highest. Large hail up to the size of golfballs will be possible with the most intense storms. Storms may slightly elevated which would keep the threat of damaging winds and tornadoes very low. Confidence in severe weather occuring is below-average due to ongoing cloud cover, the initiation time of storms, and if they’ll be surface-based or elevated. It seems likely we’ll have some hailers this evening. One or two storms may become surface-based near the coast or in Far Southeast Texas this evening. For that reason the threat for a tornado is non-zero in that area. Widespread flash flooding is not expected.

A Few Severe Storms Possible This Evening; Snow in the Panhandle

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I expect most of the daytime hours will be capped with thunderstorms holding off until near or after 5 PM. The experimental HRRR weather model run seems to show the situation well. Several of the past model runs (hourly) begin to develop thunderstorms around the Houston Metro at about 5 PM. Storms would move northeast around 25-35 MPH and expand in both intensity and coverage east of Houston towards Nacogdoches. By 9 PM it looks like several showers and thunderstorms may be underway from near Longview south into Southeast Texas to Beaumont. Activity should continue to move east and exit Texas by midnight. The strongest storms this evening could produce hail up to the size of half-dollars (1.25″ in diameter) and localized wind gusts of 50-60 MPH. The tornado threat is very low but if we were to have a brief tornado it would likely be in Southeast Texas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Category 2 risk extended further north into East Texas with the strongest storms capable of producing hail this evening.

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Widespread severe weather is not expected with this event but there will likely be a larger area of rain and sub-severe storms. Rain totals across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas will likely be in the 0.75 to 1.25 inch range. No rain accumulations is expected along or west of Interstate 35. A trace to around a tenth of an inch of liquid-equivalent precipitation is possible across the Texas Panhandle through Friday – most of that will fall as snow.

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Snow will likely begin to fall across the western Texas Panhandle later this morning. By early afternoon snow will likely be underway across the Northwest Texas Panhandle into the northern Panhandle. Temperatures will be near or just below freezing at that point. Widespread snow will continue through early this evening across the northwest half of the Texas Panhandle. By midnight snow will have decreased in coverage with pockets of light snow possible across all the Panhandle into the Caprock. Snow accumulations up to five inches will be possible across the Northwest Texas Panhandle. A dusting of snow up to an inch will be possible from Amarillo and points west and north. Some of this snow will likely accumulate on roads creating slick conditions this afternoon into tonight.

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