Enjoy your Friday because it will be the last day of warm weather for a while. High temperatures this afternoon will peak in the 80s in the Rio Grande Valley with upper 60s in the Texas Panhandle and Northeast Texas. Everyone in between will likely top out in the 70s. Those temperatures are at or a bit above average for late November – a treat compared to the forecast this weekend.
A strong cold front will begin pushing into the Texas Panhandle around 6 PM this evening. By Midnight it should extend from near Oklahoma City southwest to Altus and Childress west towards Plainview. The cold front should be arriving in the D/FW Metroplex around 5 AM on Saturday – same thing for San Angelo. It’ll continue to quickly move south pushing to the coastline by 3 PM leaving only the Rio Grande Valley in the warm sector. Temperatures north of the cold front will quickly fall into the 40s and 50s with blustery north winds. As the cold front passes a given location winds will become northerly with gusts up to 30-40 MPH. It will not be the most pleasant experience for outdoor events on Saturday. If you’re heading out plan on taking a coat.
There will be a low chance for some sprinkles or light rain tonight across North Texas, Northeast Texas, and Central Texas. Slightly higher rain chances will exist overnight in Southeast Texas. Rain chances really ramp up Saturday morning in Southeast Texas and south along the coast into South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected and most rain will remain light. Localized rain accumulations of a quarter to half an inch will be possible in SOutheast Texas and near the coast. Rain chances will shut off by later afternoon and much cooler air ushers in from the north.
High temperatures on Saturday will generally remain steady state or slowly fall north of the cold front. Temperatures in Southeast Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley will make it up into the 60s and 70s. Temperatures will fall quickly after the cold front arrives in the afternoon hours. The high temperatures shown here may occur in the late morning or early afternoon before falling. That is especially true for Southeast Texas and South Texas – including the I-10 cities.
Sunday morning will bring the first freeze of the fall to much of the Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and possibly Central Texas. Temperatures will be well below freezing in the Texas Panhandle, South Plains/Rolling Plains, Northwest Texas, and Permian Basin. A few of the coldest spots could fall into the upper teens as winds become much lighter and skies clear. 30s to mid 40s are expected across Southeast Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley.
Temperatures will rebound slightly on Sunday but it will still be a chilly day across all of Texas. Gone are the 60s and 70s. They’ll be replaced with upper 40s to upper 50s. The coldest spot looks to be in North and Northeast Texas where temperatures will struggle to hit 50 degrees on Sunday. Winds will be much more manageable than on Saturday so the day itself should be a tad nicer.
Thanksgiving itself has the potential to feature fairly warm temperatures with rain chances. A powerful cold front looks to push in on Thanksgiving Night or Black Friday with continued rain chances. The Friday-Sunday period next week has the potential to feature an interesting setup so we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Expect forecast adjustments as we get closer.
Tornado Watch Issued for the Texas Panhandle and West Texas until 9 PM
The first severe weather watch of the day has been issued as we begin a fall severe weather event. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and the Rolling Plains until 9 PM CT. Initial thunderstorm development is expected in the next two hours, with the possibility of discrete supercells. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all threats with this initial activity. By early evening, we should see a squall line take shape and move east into Northwest Texas and the Big Country before taking aim at locations further east late tonight. Additional severe weather watches are expected later today and tonight for locations east of the current watch zone. Stay weather aware!
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO SOUTHWEST KANSAS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WESTERN TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE… A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
Isolated showers are developing just ahead of the dryline in North Texas. Two particular showers are impacting Bonham and Lewisville at the time of this writing. The dryline will continue to steadily move east into the afternoon hours. West of the dryline moisture levels quickly drop, clouds clear out, and west to southwest winds increase with gusts up to 40 MPH. Fire danger will ramp up quickly west of the dryline this afternoon so no outdoor burning is advised.
After 2 PM we may see a few stronger storms fire up in East Texas. Wind shear and instablity values will support the possibility of localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH and the possibility of quarter size hail. A very low tornado threat does exist but I don’t anticipate much of a tornado issue due to veered low level winds. A marginal/category one risk includes the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas where an isolated severe storm may occur. A possible severe risk, known as a category two risk, includes East Texas where the risk for a few severe storms is slightly more likely. Individual thunderstorms will move northeast around 40-45 MPH with the line itself moving east. Thunderstorms may form a broken line this afternoon just east of the dryline/cold front. I expect most activity to be east of Texas by 7 PM this evening. Much drier and cooler air will filter in behind the cold front in time for your Thursday morning.
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) hourly model run continues to indicate a few stronger storms this afternoon. This particular run of the model has some storms ongoing by 2 PM in East Texas. Those individual storms would move northeast and would be the ones to watch for some severe weather potential. By 5 PM the HRRR has the strongest activity moving into Louisiana where low-level wind shear values are a tad more enhanced. The strongest storms this afternoon may produce some hail, localized damaging winds, and brief heavy rain. A very low tornado threat cannot be ruled out. We’ll be around keeping an eye on things along with the fire/wind issues west of the dryline this afternoon.
A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of the Concho Valley and much of North Texas until 8 PM. This includes Abilene, Brownwood, Graham, Wichita Falls, Bowie, Hamilton, all the D/FW Metroplex, and Paris. The primary severe weather hazard will be damaging wind gusts but a couple tornadoes are possible along with hail.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 531 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL 800 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE… SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS…INCLUDING SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL…EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GROVE OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES EAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
Flash Flood Warning Issued for Tarrant & Dallas Counties till 12:45 PM
UPDATE: Johnson County is now also under a Flash Flood Warning.
Thunderstorms producing heavy rain are moving into the D/FW Metroplex from the west and from the south. Saturated soils from rain earlier this morning mean any additional heavy rain will runoff and result in flooding. A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Tarrant and Dallas counties. Haslet, Keller, North Richland Hills, Fort Worth, Crowley, Arlington, Grapevine, Irving, Carrollton, University Park, Richardson, Dallas, Duncanville, Desoto, and Mesquite are included in this warning.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1039 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR… DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS… TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
* AT 1038 AM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE… DALLAS…FORT WORTH…ARLINGTON…GARLAND…IRVING…GRAND PRAIRIE…MESQUITE…CARROLLTON…RICHARDSON…MANSFIELD… ROWLETT…EULESS…DESOTO…BEDFORD…GRAPEVINE…CEDAR HILL… HALTOM CITY…KELLER…COPPELL AND DUNCANVILLE.