A weak cold front will move into the panhandle overnight and through north Texas by noon tomorrow eventually stalling out somewhere north of I-10 by Thursday afternoon. This will bring slightly cooler temps to the northern half of the state tomorrow afternoon, but the southern half of the state will still be looking at highs ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s. Even with the front, temps will remain above normal for most of the state through the coming weekend. A surface high over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to shift south and we’ll see an increase in moisture levels along the coast and inland counties through the rest of the week which will help keep nighttime lows a little warmer than they’ve been lately. Winds will die out overnight, but return again tomorrow across north Texas with the front, and ahead of the front across south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley region. This will be the area of interest with an Elevated risk of wildfires by tomorrow afternoon.
Our next chance for rain will arrive this weekend starting off across north central and northeast Texas early Sunday, then expanding south across east and southeast Texas by Sunday afternoon/evening and continuing into Monday. We won’t need to build an ark…I can assure you of that…but some areas across far northeast and eastern Texas could get between 1/4 to 1/2 inch by late Monday. Another cold front will arrive across the northern half of the state early Saturday morning, but once again will not have too much of an impact on temps for the weekend. The bulk of the cold air associated with this weekend’s front will skirt to our east impacting mainly the northeastern and far eastern regions of the state knocking temps down to right at or just below normal for a day or two. For the rest of the state, we’ll see our Non-Winter conditions continue well into next week with above normal temps and no rain in the forecast. And if you’re wondering what happened to our El Nino Winter….in case you missed it, check out our blog from yesterday evening which contains some thoughts on what happened to buck the typical El Nino winter forecast for our state, plus a peek at how this could impact our Spring severe weather season! http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/02/08/what-happened-to-el-nino/
Warming up Today Then A Cold Front Arrives for Monday
Good morning and happy Sunday! Starting off chilly this morning with patchy fog likely across parts of southern north Texas. Temps will climb into the 50s and 60s across much of the state today…and we’ll even see low to mid 70s across parts of south Texas by this afternoon. Skies will be sunny and winds will be light everywhere except for parts of the panhandle and northern Texas this afternoon as our next cold front moves through. The cold front has already moved into the the panhandle region, but will not have too much of an impact on temperatures later this afternoon. Winds will begin to pick up this afternoon as the front begins to pick up some speed. The front will move through most of the state overnight with a secondary push of colder air arriving tomorrow during the day. Wind speeds will gradually increase across the panhandle this afternoon and evening, then across the remainder of the state overnight. By tomorrow mid-day, we’ll be looking at widespread gusts in the 20 to 30mph range across much of northern and central Texas. Lows tonight will be seasonal and in the 20s across the panhandle and western Texas, in the mid to upper 30s across north and central Texas, with 40s across the coastal plains.
Aside from the cold front, the only other concern to speak of is the elevated wildfire concerns across the central part of the state by this afternoon. Once again, low humidity values, increasing temperatures and the lack of rainfall over the past 30 days will create conditions for the rapid spread of grass fires from northwest Texas through central Texas and down into the south Texas ranchlands. As always, please be careful with anything that could cause a spark or flame. Unfortunately, the long-term outlook for rain continues to be slim to none for this coming work week. The upper-level pattern this week will have us under northwest flow which is typically a very dry pattern for our state. The long-range models are indicating a possible pattern change coming into next weekend which could bring some slight rain chances back into the forecast, but that’s still a ways off. Until then, enjoy the fair winter weather!
Your Saturday Forecast! Rain Moves East – Weak Cold Front Brings Dry Conditions
Good morning and happy Saturday! The light rain from overnight will move east and out of the state by later this afternoon. A weak cold front has moved in behind the rain and is currently stretched in a north/south fashion between DFW, College Station and down towards Corpus Christi. Winds behind the front are shifting from the west northwest and gusty in areas along and west of the I-35. The only significant weather concerns today will be the elevated wildfire concerns across the Rio Grande Valley & South Texas regions today. Very low humidity levels behind the front and gusty winds this afternoon will lead to near critical fire conditions across nearly all of the south Texas region. Red Flag Warnings are in place south of a line from Victoria over to Cotulla. As the front moves through the region this morning, winds will pick up from the northwest and gust into the 30mph range with a few areas seeing 40mph gusts by later this afternoon. Please be careful with anything that could cause a spark or flame.
Despite the weak front, temps today will continue to be mild and mostly seasonal across the state. Highs will jump into the mid 50s across the panhandle, low 50s across north central and northeast Texas…we’ll see low 60s across parts of west Texas this afternoon, and for south Texas, very mild upper 60s to low 70s are expected.
Lows tonight will also be close to seasonal with mid 20s across the panhandle. Unseasonably cool temps will be found across the remainder of the state with low to mid 30s expected as far south as the coast tonight. Good news is that highs tomorrow will jump right back up into the 50s and 60s, and mixed with plenty of sunshine, will make for a very pleasant Super Bowl Sunday!
Quiet Overnight into Friday – Light Rain Returns Friday Night into Saturday
Calm weather with temperatures slightly below seasonal averages will prevail overnight into tomorrow. Lows tonight will be chilly once again across the state, but they will be a few degrees warmer than what we saw last night. Temperatures overnight will drop down into the low to mid 20s across the panhandle and far west Texas. We’ll see lows dip down into the upper 20s to low 30s across north and central Texas. Areas along the coast will also be cool with temps ranging from the low 40s across deep south Texas, to the low 30s along the central and upper coastal regions. Pretty typical for early February!
Highs tomorrow will warm just a bit over today’s highs. We’ll still see low to mid 40s across the panhandle, but for the central 1/3rd of the state, we’ll see very pleasant highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and even some 70 degree readings across south Texas. We will see clouds on the increase across the eastern half of the state tomorrow, but there will still be plenty of sunshine to go around making it a great day to get out and about!
We’re still on track for light rain chances beginning late Friday and lasting on and off into Saturday afternoon mainly for the eastern half of the state. We won’t see much in the way of accumulation and it shouldn’t put much of a damper on outdoor plans for Saturday. With dry air still at the surface, some areas won’t see much of anything as the precip may evaporate before reaching the ground. A piece of upper level energy will pass quickly overhead during this time period and drag a weak cold front along with it. Even with the passing of the cold front, temperatures over the weekend will remain mild and seasonal for Saturday. Super Bowl Sunday looks great, a few degrees warmer and perfect for anyone wanting to gather on the patio for a pre-game cookout!
Chilly Tonight – Mild and Dry Through Friday – Light Rain Chances Return by Early Saturday
High pressure will settle in over the state for the next couple of days on the heels of today’s front. Clear skies overnight will give way to temperatures dropping down into the upper teens across the panhandle, upper 20s across north and northeast Texas, with mid to upper 30s across southeast and coastal Texas. Aside from some light snow across the northern panhandle this evening and overnight, conditions will remain chilly but calm with winds generally under 10mph.
We expect to see a nice warmup tomorrow with temperatures reaching the low 50s across the panhandle, mid 50s across north and west central Texas, and upper 50s to mid 60s further south along the coast. Still a few degrees cooler than average for central and south Texas, but definitely pleasant with plenty of sunshine!
We will keep this quiet weather pattern until we head into late Friday night and early Saturday when we expect to see our next upper level low and weak cold front arrive which will generate rain chances across the mainly the eastern half of the state. The cold front that pushed through last night and this afternoon will have scoured out most of the moisture before this next system arrives, which leaves very little moisture for it to work with. As such, we’ll see only minimal chances of rain beginning late Friday and continuing on and off into Sunday, with the best chances looking to be east of the I-45 corridor.
A Look Ahead: After the weekend’s upper level system departs to the east by early Sunday, our state will be positioned between a deep trough of low pressure to our east and a strong upper level ridge to our west. Northwest flow in the upper levels across the state will allow a strong cold front to strike a glancing blow across the eastern half of the state with the coldest air shunted well east across the Mississippi valley region. It also looks like we’ll be locked in a predominantly dry weather pattern through next week. By mid-month, the long range forecast models are hinting at a bit of a pattern chance which may increase rain chances for the state, but it’s still too far out to be certain at this time.