Your Overnight Forecast – Strong/Severe Storms Possible Across Far West TX
Monday, 05 October 2015 18:21
Strong to severe storms are possible overnight and Tuesday across parts of far west Texas in and around the El Paso region. Widespread severe is not expected, but a few of the storms that form across northern Mexico and cross the border overnight into western Texas and the New Mexico boot heel could become strong with large hail, strong winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning…especially during the early morning hours tomorrow.
Elsewhere, a quiet night is expected with mild overnight lows ranging from the low 50s across the panhandle, to low 60s and upper 70s further south along the coast. Highs tomorrow, warming up a few degrees over what we saw this weekend. A few areas will be pushing 90 degrees, but western Texas and the panhandle will stay cooler as temperatures will be highly influenced by the amount of cloud cover expected tomorrow as our next upper level disturbance gets closer.
Rain chances this week are increasing across the western and southwestern regions of the state. The approaching upper level low is dragging pacific moisture with it…and the low itself will begin to draw moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico once it begins to move closer to us by mid-week. This will set the state for a multi-day rain event across the area with some folks seeing 2-4 inches of rain once the system moves out next weekend. Minor flooding is certainly a possibility…especially for the urban areas along the I-35 corridor. This is not…NOT…shaping up to be a high-impact flooding event like we saw this spring when the ground was already in an oversaturated state. But, we certainly could see some localized flooding of small streams, creeks, and some urban streets under some of the heavier downpours that develop. We will keep an eye on this situation anyway, as the speed and eventual position of the upper level low will determine the who/what/when evolution of this next rain event.
Conditions today will be similar to yesterday with mostly mild and sunny conditions across the eastern half of the state with more cloudiness and additional rainfall expected over the western half of the state. Once again, widely scattered rain is expected to continue for parts of the panhandle and western Texas today and overnight into Monday. An upper level low across the desert southwest will continue to bring rain chances to this region, and will begin to track east through the week with rain chances moving east as we get further into the week. More on that with this evening’s blog.
The approaching upper level disturbance from the west, plus moisture continuing to stream north from the remnants of hurricane Marty will bring additional rain chances to portions of the panhandle and western Texas today. Severe weather is not expected today, but a few of the storms could become strong with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding.
Temperatures today…mild across the eastern half of the state, cooler across the panhandle and western Texas under the influence of cloud cover and rain, with warmer temps across south Texas. Overall not bad, especially with continued lower humidity levels. We will have a few more days with northerly flow, then southerly flow and increasing temperatures will arrive by mid-week, especially for central and eastern portions of the state. Be sure to check back this evening for an expanded outlook for the week ahead which looks to be rainy for parts of the state.
Your Saturday Forecast! And Pattern Change coming Next Week!
Saturday, 03 October 2015 09:46
We’ll have a bit of a mixed bag of weather across the state today. Beautiful early fall-like conditions will be present across the northern and eastern portions of the state, while the panhandle and western Texas will be seeing scattered rain chances throughout the weekend and into early next week. Folks in south Texas will see only slightly cooler temps, but with humidity levels dropping off today, it won’t feel quite a muggy and dank for any outdoor activities you have planned. Temps today will struggle to get into the 60s across the panhandle with abundant cloud cover and rain chances. For northern Texas, we’ll be looking at upper 70s to low 80s today. A nice day to hit the Texas State Fair! Parts of southeast Texas will see low to mid 80s, and for deep south Texas and along the Rio Grande, we’ll see mid 80s to low 90s by later this afternoon. Lows tonight, pleasant 60 degree readings will be seen well into south Texas, with much chillier readings in the upper 40s to low 50s for folks in the panhandle region.
Rain chances today, tomorrow and into Monday will exist across western Texas and up into the panhandle region as low pressure across the desert southwest continues to develop. We also have some upper level moisture streaming northeast across western Texas…remnants from Hurricane Marty off the baja coast of Mexico…which will help aid in precipitation development over the next several days.
Simulated radar through 5pm this evening
Next week, we’re expecting a pattern change which will bring more widespread rain chances across a larger section of the state. A trough of low pressure across the desert southwest is expected to slowly shift east during the week developing rain chances from west to east through the latter part of next week. Differences in the mid to long-range models continue to show some disagreement on exactly how much rain we can expect, and exactly which parts of the state will be most impacted. We’ll continue to explore the data that arrives today and overnight and provide a more comprehensive forecast outlook with our Sunday evening blog, so be sure to check back then. For now…here’s a look at the current rainfall forecast through next Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center.
Cool and Very Fall-Like Overnight
Friday, 02 October 2015 20:52
Just a quick forecast update for everyone this evening! Cool and fall-like temperatures have settled in over most of the state this evening. Yesterday’s cold front has pushed beyond south Texas and is currently located south of the border stretching up into central New Mexico with cool air continuing to slowly filter in behind it. Unfortunately for south/southwest Texas, the front washed out quite a bit before its arrival and won’t do much to drop daytime temps, but considerably drier air moving in will make it feel much less muggy overnight and through tomorrow. Further north across the panhandle, temperatures have dropped into the upper 50’s. Temps across north Texas have dropped down into the mid 60’s, and we’re seeing a mixture of 60 and 70 degree readings from central Texas all the way over to far southeast Texas near the Louisiana border. A fine evening to be attending Friday night high school football games or enjoying your favorite beverage on the patio.
Lows tonight will be dropping down into the 40s across most of the panhandle with readings in the 50s and low 60s as far south as San Antonio. Areas along the Rio Grade will see upper 60s to low 70s overnight and we’ll have lots of dry and less humid air across most of the state. For tomorrow, highs in the panhandle will struggle to get out of the 50s with cloud cover and rain expected on and off throughout the day. Further east across north Texas, we’ll be in the 70s most of the day and finally top out around 80 degrees by mid-afternoon. Central and south Texas will see pleasant highs in the mid 80s…and we’ll see a few low 90s along the coast.
Rain chances tonight and tomorrow will be confined to the panhandle and west Texas as an upper level low builds over the desert southwest. This will bring continued rain chances to the western half of the state over the next few days as the low becomes cutoff from the main upper level flow and slowly drifts east. Forecast models for the upcoming week are starting to point to a rather rainy pattern for the week ahead. We’ll dig more into that data tomorrow and prepare a comprehensive forecast for everyone by Sunday evening!
Continued Mostly Dry and Warm Through The Work Week
Tuesday, 29 September 2015 20:00
Continued dry and mostly rain-free for the remainder of the work week as high pressure remains the dominant feature in our forecast, especially across the western half of the state. A weak cold front will arrive across the panhandle and northern Texas by early Wednesday and move into north central and eastern Texas by late Wednesday into Thursday, but it will have minimal effects on temperatures during the day. Overall, temps won’t be skyrocketing the rest of this week…in fact we’ll see a downward trend across the eastern half of the state, but they will remain a few degrees above where they should be at this time of the year for the western half. Drier air will also be working its way in from the northeast by Thursday after the front moves through which will help keep things feeling less muggy across the eastern half of the state.
For tonight, we will see temps drop down into the upper 50s to low 60s across the western half of the state. Further east across central and north central Texas where the atmosphere is more moist, temps will only drop into the upper 60s to low 70s by early morning. For coastal and south Texas, temps will only drop down into the low 70s. Rain chances will be minimal overnight, with only a slight chance across the northern panhandle as storms across southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico approach the state overnight before dissipating. We also have a chance at seeing a few lingering showers along the upper and central coastal areas overnight, but for the most part, things will remain dry. Highs tomorrow, warm with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s across the state. This will remain our overall pattern until we get into the weekend when our next big…ish…weather pattern change is expected.
The forecast confidence for this weekend and beyond remains a bit unclear with all three of the major long-range computerized forecast models continuing to spit out different scenarios. The one model we were hoping and praying was going to bring us a strong cold front this weekend has backed off a bit and is beginning to come in line with the other two models which keep us warm through the middle of next week. All, however, are bringing at least some rain into the forecast this weekend across the northern portions of the state, with an overall rainy pattern possibly setting up for northern and western Texas into next week as well. This is pretty much in line with what the Climate Prediction Center is thinking in their 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks which would take us through Friday October 9th.