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9:20pm Severe Weather Update – Overnight Storm Chances

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Storms across the rolling plains have begun to wind down a bit over the past half hour, but the threat for strong to severe storms remains likely across the northeastern panhandle between Borger, Pampa and Canadian for the next couple of hours until they move across the state line into western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, in central Texas, a small cluster of severe storms has developed and is currently situated between Salado and Waco. Half-dollar to golf ball size hail will be likely within this cluster as it heads north.  Additional scattered development is expected to continue tonight as these storms begin to migrate towards the I-20 corridor along a northward advecting warm frontal boundary  While we typically see the capping inversion return during the overnight hours…which would typically decrease the chance for severe weather…in this particular case, the cap will be weak to zero with ample instability for continuous storm development into tomorrow morning.  Difficult to pinpoint exactly how widespread the storm coverage will become, or exactly what portions of the DFW metroplex could be impacted by severe weather during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, but it’s a pretty sure bet that quite a few of us will be awakened after midnight by some thunder and lightning at the very least.  Large hail, some possibly exceeding 2 inches, and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats overnight, especially as the storms move north of the I-20 corridor towards the Red River.  Make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings should any be issued for your area overnight!  If you use a weather app on your smartphone to alert you, make sure you don’t have your phone on Mute as most of those apps do not override that feature.

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7:10pm Severe Weather Update

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We continue to monitor the storm situation in the Texas panhandle this evening.  Scattered supercell thunderstorms have developed over the past few hours.  So far, no confirmed reports of tornadoes, but the storm currently northeast of Matador has the best potential we’ve seen so far.  Winds in excess of 70mph and hail up to 2 inches is possible with these storms as they continue to move northeast this evening.  A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the southern Texas panhandle and rolling plains of west central Texas until 11pm.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect for much of the Texas panhandle until 11pm as well.  Not everyone will see severe weather as these storms are widely scattered, but if you’re under one of these supercells, they pack a punch.

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Further south across central Texas, we will be monitoring for scattered storm development later this evening and into the early overnight hours.  The storms across the panhandle will not impact north Texas this evening, but the development anticipated across central Texas later this evening will move up into north Texas overnight into an atmosphere that will become increasingly unstable through the early morning hours.  Large hail will be the main threat overnight mainly north of the I-20 corridor towards the Red River counties.

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A Few Storms Today Across the West – Elsewhere Sunny and Dry

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Good morning and happy Saturday everyone!  Today will feature mostly quiet and dry conditions across the state.  Highs today will be fairly close to seasonal averages across the state and quite nice for enjoying outdoor chores or family fun.  The panhandle and across into north and central Texas will see highs in the low to mid 80s today.  Western Texas will see highs in the mid to upper 80s today with cooler temps in the 70s across the higher elevations in the mountains.  Coastal and south Texas will see highs range from the low 80s to upper 80s with the possibility of reaching 90 along the Rio Grande plains.  Lows tonight will remain mild with most areas not dropping below the upper 50s as moisture begins to return in earnest across the state.

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Chances for rain and storms exists again today for parts of far west Texas, mainly west of the Pecos River this afternoon, and further south along the Rio Grande down into deep south Texas.  A weakish upper level low across northern Mexico will be drawing moisture up across the region this afternoon which may lead to the development of scattered showers and storms by later this afternoon and through the evening hours across this region.  Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few of the storms could become strong with a damaging wind threat.

MAF this afternoon

We also have a chance for seeing a few strong storms across the northwestern panhandle this afternoon as a piece of upper level energy moves over the region by early afternoon.  Coverage won’t be widespread, but  one or two of the storms could become strong with gusty winds.

panhandle this afternoon

In case you missed it, David has a discussion out about the active weather pattern we’re expected through next week.  Click here to read it.  Tuesday looks to be the most active day which will impact mainly north, northeast and possibly parts of central Texas.  Not everyone will see storms each day, and this pattern is not unusual for April as we’re in the midst of storm season here in the state, but you’ll want to keep this in mind as you plan your week ahead, especially with any outdoor activities.

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Your Thursday Night – Friday Forecast! Drying out for a few days!

Highs Friday

In the wake of this morning’s squall line of storms now well offshore, a cold front has been slowly drifting south across the state.  Behind the front, drier air has been filtering in leaving very pleasant conditions across much of north and central Texas this afternoon.  We still have a marginal chance of seeing a couple of isolated storms develop tonight across the Edwards Plateau region down into south/southwest Texas along the Rio Grande, but the overall threat of severe weather is low.  Everywhere else, clear to partly cloudy skies with less humid air continuing to filter in from north to south across the state.  A very nice reprieve from all the rain and storms we’ve had this week.  And for anyone out there wishing to play “hooky” from work, tomorrow would be the day to do so…but you didn’t hear that from me!

Lows Tonight

Lows tonight will drop down into the 40s across much of the panhandle, with low to mid 50s across north, west central and far west Texas.  The warmest overnight temps will be found ahead of the cold front where more humid air still resides which will work to keep temps a bit higher.  Tomorrow’s highs look very pleasant and right at or just below seasonal averages for this time of the year.  The sun will be out tomorrow across most of the state with folks across south Texas experiencing cloudy to partly cloudy conditions by tomorrow afternoon.

Highs Friday

Chances for storms tomorrow will be slim, and will be confined primarily across far west Texas, deep south Texas and along the Rio Grande across far southwest Texas.  No impacts are expected elsewhere across the state tomorrow afternoon, which is good because we need a chance to dry out.

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In case you missed it, we do have some chances of severe weather this weekend and into the first of next week.  Since we’ve been seeing much “hype” surrounding the severe weather chances Monday through Wednesday of next week, David typed up a quick blog earlier today in an attempt to squelch the rumors floating around that we might see a severe weather “outbreak”.  Be sure to check it out here.  We will certainly be following the upcoming chance for severe weather closely and will keep you up to date with the latest factual information.

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9:30pm Rainfall & Severe Weather Forecast through Wednesday

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Flooding across many parts of south central Texas continues this evening and will remain a threat for the next several days.  Another area of rain is moving from west to east across south central Texas and will likely impact the Houston metro area during the overnight hours.  While this next batch of rain is not expected to be as heavy, and will move across the region a bit more quickly than this morning’s system, an additional 1 to 2 or more inches is still possible overnight.   While that may not seem like much, any additional rainfall across this area will only exacerbate current flood conditions.  With so many roadways remaining closed and flooded tonight in and around the Houston metro area, local officials are asking area residents to stay home tonight and not venture out unless it’s extremely urgent.

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For the remainder of the state overnight, showers and storms (non-severe) are possible across parts of the panhandle.  Don’t be surprised if you are awakened by a few boomers overnight.  Ongoing storms across deep south Texas will continue to impact the region overnight. A few of these could become severe with a hail and damaging wind threat; however widespread severe weather is not expected.  Thankfully for Tuesday, weaker upper level flow aloft will greatly diminish the the threat of severe weather during the early to middle portions of the day with only a small marginal risk across a small area of west Texas around the Ft. Stockton area.  The heaviest rain tomorrow should be confined mainly to the eastern half of the state with overall rainfall totals less than 2 inches for most; however, localized higher amounts cannot be completely ruled out wherever the heaviest bands of rain set up.

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For late Tuesday into Wednesday, the threat of severe weather returns to parts of north central and central Texas as the stagnant upper level low moves east.  Forcing will be on the increase by Tuesday afternoon and evening and bring chances for more widespread showers and a few storms across northwest and west central Texas. Overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday, it’s possible we’ll see even more widespread coverage of showers and storms across the region with a few of the short-range models showing the possibility of a squall line of storms moving across the region Wednesday morning.  Wednesday afternoon and evening may also have a risk of additional severe storm development across central Texas. With this still being two days out, we expect this forecast to be refined by tomorrow, so be sure to check back with us!TX_swody3