Numerous Severe Storms with Tornadoes Possible Today!
- Friday, 29 April 2016 12:36
- Written by David Reimer
A complex forecast continues today but confidence is increasing we may be dealing with a severe weather event in the making. The atmosphere along and east of Highway 281 has become very unstable. A low pressure area near Snyder, TX has allowed low-level wind shear to become impressive across much of the eastern half of Texas. We already have storms beginning to develop in East Texas due to a weak cap – which is in the process of collasping completely. With a weak cap and ascent across most of North, Central, and East Texas we could see storms fire up after 1-2 PM in pretty much anywhere. While the dryline will potentially fire up supercells in Northwest Texas and western North Texas today the warm-sector well east of the dryline could fire up storms nearly anywhere. For this reason we can’t specifically tell you when storms will impact your area. This won’t be a line or complex of storms moving from one location to another. We could be dealing with supercells in Texoma this afternoon while also dealing with supercells in Central and East Texas. I do believe we will see activity start picking up after 2 PM and a tornado watch isn’t far away most likely.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded a category 3 severe weather risk to include all of North Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. All modes of severe weather are possible with storms today – including tornadoes. I emphasis that unlike most of our events in Texas these storms could pop up just about anywhere due to the weak cap today. A category 2 severe weather risk includes South-Central Texas and Southeast Texas. Please don’t base your expectations today from what happened on Tuesday. Have your severe weather safety plan ready to go this afternoon as storms could quickly intensify once they get going. A squall line will likely fire up in Northeast/East/Southeast Texas this evening with a threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Complex Forecast with Severe Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening
- Friday, 29 April 2016 09:01
- Written by David Reimer
A very complex and messy convective evolution is anticipated today due to a weak cap. Shortly before 9 AM we already had strong thunderstorms moving east across the Texas Panhandle. Some of those storms could become severe with a hail risk through the morning hours. By the early to mid afternoon its anticipated that convective development will occur from Northeast Texas into Central Texas. With little to no cap in place these storms could form pretty much anywhere versus off the dryline. Storm coverage could become widespread which would work to keep one storm from becoming too intense. Nevertheless the strongest storms will likely pose a severe weather risk with the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. At the same time a dryline will surge east into western North Texas into western Central Texas by the afternoon hours. With a weak cap its likely thunderstorms will fire up east of the dryline by late afternoon. The strongest storms could be severe with a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Low-level wind shear is actually pretty favorable for rotating storms today but the ‘messy’ storm evolution lowers my confidence in a more significant severe weather threat at this time. If we see any supercells become established that can dominate their local enviornment they could produce baseball size hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Storms will continue into Northeast Texas and East Texas overnight with the potential for one to four inches of rain through Saturday. That could cause some flooding issues since soils are saturated and rivers are still full.
Above is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. They have an enhanced risk (category 3) placed across Texoma into North Texas and Northeast Texas. A category 2 severe weather risk includes the Texas Panhandle, North Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and portions of Southeast Texas. As stated above the forecast today is very complex – also known as uncertain. The enhanced risk has been placed where confidence is at least medium that there will be several severe weather reports today. That is also where the threat for isolated tornadoes is highest due to a warm front that will enhance low-level wind shear. Large hail is likely with the strongest storms today. If we see any dominant supercells take hold than the threat of very large hail up to the size of baseballs will increase. Localized damaging wind gusts are possible. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out – but that threat could locally be enhanced where the warm front sets up along the Red River if we see supercells this afternoon.
Severe Storm Risk Returns Thursday Night through Saturday; Some Heavy Rain Too
- Wednesday, 27 April 2016 14:58
- Written by David Reimer
The remainder of today and much of Thursday will be storm-free. The weather will begin to become more active late tomorrow afternoon in the southeast Texas Panhandle and far Northwest Texas. There is a conditional risk for a few supercells to develop in those two regions after 4 PM tomorrow. Uncertainty remains on the availability of moisture and how unstable the atmosphere will become. We could easily end up with no surface-based storms tomorrow afternoon. Either way the primary show will occur after dark tomorrow night and into the early morning hours Friday. A surface warm front will move north from Central Texas tomorrow night through the Red River over time. As the warm front moves north conditions will become more unstable. We’ll likely see elevated thunderstorms fire up late tomorrow night in portions of Northwest Texas and North Texas. The strongest storms will likely produce hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Since storms will be elevated above the ‘cap’ the threat of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts should be very low. It could be stormy morning commute on Friday in North Texas. Tomorrow night won’t be a major severe weather event but will probably be loud.
Depending on what transpires Thursday Night and the morning hours on Friday we could see another round of severe weather Friday afternoon and Friday night. Since we’re still 48+ hours out we’ll just have to wait and see what comes together. If we have widespread rain/clouds persist on Friday the threat of severe weather will be mitigated. If conditions come together as some models are indicating we could have severe weather issues. The Storm Prediction Center has broad brushed a category 2 severe weather risk across Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, the eastern Big Country, eastern Concho Valley, South-Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. The strongest storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. The magnitude of any tornado threat will become more clear as we get closer and get through Thursday.
The chance of heavy rain will increase Friday, Friday Night, and into Saturday. Some locations in Northeast Texas and East Texas could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain through the weekend. The threat of flash flooding may return for some locations. We’ll also have to refine this risk as we get closer but a dual threat of severe storms and heavy rain could exist.
Flash Flood Outlook for Friday and Friday Night
Tornado Warning: Cooke County until 9:30 PM
- Tuesday, 26 April 2016 20:48
- Written by David Reimer
Tornado warning for central Cooke county in North Texas until 9:30 PM. Possible developing tornado located 8 miles southwest of Lindsay or 10 miles southwest of Gainesville. Movement it to the northeast at 25 MPH. Lindsay and Gainesville are in the path of this possible developing tornado. Seek shelter now!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
846 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
* UNTIL 930 PM CDT
* AT 845 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINDSAY…OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
HAZARD…TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS…AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
LINDSAY AROUND 905 PM CDT.
GAINESVILLE AROUND 915 PM CDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE VALLEY
1145AM: Severe Weather Outbreak Likely This Evening; Threat Levels Upgraded
- Tuesday, 26 April 2016 11:44
- Written by David Reimer
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded all of Northwest Texas, Texoma, the eastern Big Country, North Texas, and portions of Central Texas to a category 4 (moderate) risk of severe weather for this afternoon and tonight. This upgrade is due to increased confidence in multiple severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes are also a threat – especially in the enhanced and moderate risk zones. The remainder of the severe weather outlook remains unchanged. Please see our full thoughts below for timing and threat details.
Isolated supercell development will likely occur after 3 PM across the Big Country into western Oklahoma. These initial storms will rapidly intensify and become severe. All modes of severe weather will be possible with the strongest storms. Giant hail up to the size of softballs, damaging wind gusts up to 80 MPH, and tornadoes will be possible. An isolated strong tornado is not out of the question with discrete supercells west of I-35 this afternoon and evening. I expect we’ll see a number of storms go up between 3 and 6 PM across Northwest Texas into the Big Country. All these storms will be moving northeast at 25-40 MPH. The more intense supercells may deviate to the right and move more east/northeast. Not all these storms will be capable of producing tornadoes or softball size hail. The strongest storms could be intense and capable of producing significant severe weather. By early evening we may have a combination of discrete and semi-discrete supercells moving into western North Texas and Texoma. By this point the threat for straight-line winds up to 80 MPH may be on the increase. Destructive hail and tornadoes will likely be a continuing threat. A few hours after sunset I expect the storms will have formed into a squall line that will be marching east into North Texas. The strongest storms in the line will likely be severe with destructive winds up to 80 MPH, baseball size hail, and a threat for brief tornadoes. Any supercell that forms ahead of this squall line will have a tornado threat – although this is conditional on storms actually being ahead of the line. Current timing projections have the squall line moving into the D/FW Metroplex between 9 PM and 1 AM – and some storms will be severe. By midnight the squall line will likely be in or just east of D/FW and extending southeast into the southern Big Country and Hill Country. I wouldn’t be surprised to see much of the line severe-warned with a threat of damaging straight line winds and large hail. Isolated tornadoes will continue to be threat tonight – especially in embedded supercell structures in the squall line. I do not expect a tornado outbreak today (that is numerous strong tornadoes). However I do expect we will have at least a few tornadoes with the initial discrete storms this afternoon and even brief tornadoes embedded in the squall line tonight. Very large hail will be a significant concern along with damaging wind gusts tonight with the squall line. Have multiple ways to receive severe weather warnings tonight.