The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service have issued a Tornado Watch for Northeast Texas, East Texas, and the Brazos Valley until 9 AM. A line of severe storms near the D/FW Metroplex will continue to move east this morning with a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat. A dangerous supercell just southeast of College Station is moving northeast. That storm and any other discrete supercells that can form will have an enhanced tornado threat this morning.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 445 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 445 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE… A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY…A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING…WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO…ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Lower Humidity & Cooler Temperatures Arrive on Friday
After a month of above average temperatures and little in the way of fall weather it finally looks like that may be about to change. Weather models are showing a variety of solutions for the end of the work week. Some weather models bring a strong cold front into Texas with a noticeable drop in temperatures along with much drier air. Other models still bring drier air and lower humidity into the state but keep the cooler air north. Either way dewpoint temperatures should noticeably drop for the end of the work week into the weekend.
The North American Model (NAM) is showing an active pattern aloft by Thursday Night. A trough with an upper level low across the Southeast United States should bring a north/northwest flow aloft. That pattern would bring drier air and hopefully a decent cold front for the end of the work week.
Forecast confidence for the Thursday-Saturday timeframe is low. The reason for the low confidence forecast is weather model variability. One weather model sets up a pattern which would bring a strong cold front south into Texas. Another model keeps the high pressure aloft in place with continued above-average temperatures. The official forecast from the National Weather Service uses a blend of the weather model data. High temperatures on Friday will be noticeably cooler along and north of Interstate 10 with upper 60s to mid 80s. Obviously the most noticeable cool off will be across the northern portions of Texas. Another benefit of this cold front is that a northerly flow will usher in much drier air. That means lower dewpoints and lower humidity across all of Texas – even if temperatures remain warm.
Precipitation chances will greatly depend on how the upper air pattern sets up at the end of the week. There may be some rain chances across the Panhandle and Northwest Texas but overall I don’t expect a big rain maker with this upcoming front. The Weather Prediction Center indicates only very light precipitation totals on Friday in the Panhandle. The remainder of the precipitation shown across Southeast Texas is from potential rain today.
While I’m sure many of our followers are out enjoying their Saturday Night I wanted to quickly put something together that shows how much rain has fallen since last weekend. This graphic comes from the National Weather Service and combines several pieces of information to estimate how much rain has fallen since September 13. Data used to create this image ran from 7 AM on September 13 to 7 AM this morning (September 20). The graphic does not include rain that has fallen since 7 AM this morning. I’m honestly so happy to see the yellow and reds across West Texas, Southwest Texas, the Hill Country, the Rio Grande Valley, and Southeast Texas. Several lakes have shown increases in feet verses inches. A lot of folks received beneficial rain over the past week but sadly there are areas that have missed out. The Texas Panhandle southeast into the Red River Valley, North Texas, and Northeast Texas have really missed out with little to no rain seen from Odile’s rements.
One big way to tell how the recent rains have impacted the drought will be on Thursday when the National Drought Mitigation Center releases their weekly drought monitor that details drought impacts and conditions on a regional scale. We’ll definitely bring you the new outlook on Thursday and I’m hopeful we will see considerable improvement in the drought’s severity where heavy rains have fallen.
Abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico along with the remains of Hurricane Odile continue to bring heavy rains and the risk for flash flooding to Texas. We’ve already had active day with multiple flash flood and flood warnings. Local authorities are still searching for a missing law enforcement officer out of the Austin area after her patrol car was swept away by flood waters early this morning. Perhaps this would be a good time to teach you our little motto about flooded roadways… TURN AROUND DON’T DROWN! Several of our excellent National Weather Service offices across Texas have already expanded and extended the Flood Watches into Friday across parts of West Texas, Southwest Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and Southeast Texas. Scroll down to the end of the post for statements from each NWS office.
Due to the continued moisture influx and dynamics from Odile the risk for flooding will continue into Friday across West Texas, Central Texas, and Southeast Texas where the dynamics to produce heavy rains will be strongest tonight and tomorrow. Not everyone will receive rainfall nor will everyone deal with heavy rains. The key note here is to understand that these thunderstorms are capable of producing copious amounts of rain in an extremely short period of time. Parts of Austin saw nearly four inches of rain in 30 minutes. No infrastructure can handle that amount of water regardless of whether its rural or urban. We’re going to be dealing with the same situation tonight. Some thunderstorms may begin to move over or train over the same locations. Should that happen there is the potential for rapid accumulation of rain in the order of three to six inches in a matter of an hour or two. Another issue is that some areas have already had rain and the ground is saturated thus again enhancing the potential for localized flash flooding.
The Weather Prediction Center has indicated they expect widespread four to six inch rain accumulations across parts of West Texas over the coming few days. Some locations will receive less than that while some locations could see that much fall in a matter of hours. This is great news for drought-stricken areas and undoubtedly this is going to be a good thing in the long-term. However in the short term it could cause flooding of both low-lying locations and small streams. While we are not expecting widespread flash flooding over the next couple of days across Texas we could see localized high-impact flooding like we saw in Austin this morning.
National Weather Service in Amarillo OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG- DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…VEGA…AMARILLO…PANHANDLE… WHITE DEER…PAMPA…SHAMROCK…WHEELER…HEREFORD…CANYON… CLAUDE…CLARENDON…WELLINGTON 307 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF TEXAS…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…ARMSTRONG…CARSON…COLLINGSWORTH…DEAF SMITH…DONLEY…GRAY…OLDHAM…POTTER…RANDALL AND WHEELER.
* FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED…ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
* THE RUNOFF COULD CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER ROADS AND CAUSE DITCHES TO FILL UP WITH WATER. FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN SUCH AS PALO DURO CANYON COULD BE LIFE THREATENING.
National Weather Service in Lubbock PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-MOTLEY- COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-YOAKUM-TERRY- LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FRIONA…BOVINA…DIMMITT…HART… TULIA…SILVERTON…QUITAQUE…MULESHOE…LITTLEFIELD…OLTON… PLAINVIEW…FLOYDADA…LOCKNEY…MATADOR…ROARING SPRINGS… PADUCAH…MORTON…LEVELLAND…LUBBOCK…SLATON…WOLFFORTH… CROSBYTON…RALLS…DICKENS…SPUR…GUTHRIE…PLAINS… DENVER CITY…BROWNFIELD…TAHOKA…ODONNELL…POST…JAYTON… ASPERMONT 339 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014
…FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS… INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN NORTHWEST TEXAS…BAILEY… COCHRAN…COTTLE…CROSBY…DICKENS…FLOYD…GARZA…HALE… HOCKLEY…KENT…KING…LAMB…LUBBOCK…LYNN…MOTLEY… STONEWALL…TERRY AND YOAKUM. IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS… BRISCOE…CASTRO…PARMER AND SWISHER.
* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
* THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE…CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO…ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION JUST IN ADVANCE OF ODILE REMAINS SATURATED…WHILE THE GROUND HAS BEEN SOAKED BY SEVERAL RECENT RAIN STORMS. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 4 INCHES…WHILE LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AS WELL. AND SINCE RUN-OFF POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH…THESE RAIN AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE AREAL FLOODING OR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING.
* AREAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS… INCLUDING LOW LYING ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS…NEAR PLAYA LAKES..AND ALONG CREEKS AND DRAWS. POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS PRONE TO RAPID RUNOFF SUCH AS THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.
National Weather Service in Midland …FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS…GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS…VAN HORN REGION… PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN…
.REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS EDDY AND CULBERSON COUNTIES… WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LEA COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION THEN INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND SHIFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE…ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL.
NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-074-258-191130- /O.CON.KMAF.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-140920T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- GLASSCOCK-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…QUEEN…ARTESIA…CARLSBAD…TATUM… HOBBS…LOVINGTON…EUNICE…JAL…SEMINOLE…LAMESA…SNYDER… ANDREWS…STANTON…BIG SPRING…COLORADO CITY…VAN HORN… PECOS…MENTONE…RED BLUFF LAKE…KERMIT…ODESSA…MIDLAND… GARDEN CITY…ALPINE…PINE SPRINGS 302 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 /202 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014/
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO…EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES…GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. IN TEXAS…ANDREWS…BORDEN …DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA…DAWSON…ECTOR…GAINES… GLASSCOCK…GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS…HOWARD…LOVING…MARTIN… MIDLAND…MITCHELL…REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS…SCURRY…VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR AND WINKLER.
* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
* ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS…WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE.
* FLOODING OF CREEKS…ARROYOS…LOW WATER CROSSINGS…AND CITY STREETS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
National Weather Service in Fort Worth COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS- LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT…
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…BELL… COMANCHE…CORYELL…FALLS…HAMILTON…LAMPASAS…LIMESTONE… MCLENNAN AND MILLS. IN NORTHEAST TEXAS…LEON. IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…MILAM AND ROBERTSON.
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
* NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT.
National Weather Service New Braunfels
…HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING…
.TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. IN ADDITION…A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SPINNING OFF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR AND DUE TO SATURATED SOILS FROM EARLIER VERY HEAVY RAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING…THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE RAPID RISES IN AREA RIVERS…STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY CREEKS.
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS EXPANDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…BANDERA…BEXAR…BLANCO…CALDWELL…COMAL… EDWARDS…GILLESPIE…GONZALES…GUADALUPE…HAYS…KENDALL… KERR…LAVACA…MEDINA…REAL AND UVALDE.
* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
* FLASH FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS LIKELY DUE TO HEAVY RAINS. NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND AREA STREAMS MAY ALSO SEE RAPID RISES.
National Weather Service in Houston AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS- JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALLER-WHARTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…ALVIN…ANAHUAC…ANGLETON…BAY CITY… BELLVILLE…BROOKSHIRE…CLEVELAND…COLDSPRING…COLUMBUS… CONROE…DAYTON…EAGLE LAKE…EDNA…EL CAMPO…FREEPORT… FRIENDSWOOD…GALVESTON…HEMPSTEAD…HOUSTON…HUMBLE…KATY… LAKE JACKSON…LEAGUE CITY…LIBERTY…MISSOURI CITY… MONT BELVIEU…PALACIOS…PASADENA…PEARLAND…PIERCE… PRAIRIE VIEW…RICHMOND…ROSENBERG…SEALY…SHEPHERD… SUGAR LAND…TEXAS CITY…THE WOODLANDS…TOMBALL…WEIMAR… WHARTON…WILLIS…WINNIE 238 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014
…FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…
THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES…AUSTIN…BRAZORIA…CHAMBERS…COLORADO…FORT BEND…GALVESTON…HARRIS…JACKSON…LIBERTY…MATAGORDA… MONTGOMERY…SAN JACINTO…WALLER AND WHARTON.
* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* RAINFALL WITHIN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS BEEN EXCESSIVE OVER PARTICULAR AREAS OF THE WATCH AREA. 48 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GREATER THAN 5 INCHES OVER AREAS OF WESTERN HARRIS…NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTIES…WITH THE HIGHEST 6 HOUR TOTALS JUST NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN HOUSTON AND ALONG CLEAR CREEK. AREA BAYOUS MAY QUICKLY RESPOND WITH RAPID RISES WITHIN RAIN EXCEEDING FOUR INCH PER HOUR RATES. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE AREA COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS A TROPICAL AIR MASS…THE FLOODING THREAT WILL COME FROM SLOW MOVING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS…POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY STORM OR OUTFLOW MERGERS.
* AFTER THIS AFTERNOON`S ACTIVITY WANES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON… THE TIMING OF THE NEXT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have created quite a mess across parts of the Houston Metro this afternoon. A flash flood warning is in effect for parts of Harris, Brazoria, and Galveston counties until 4:15 PM. Rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has resulted in an air mass typical of June or July where showers and storms can produce high rainfall amounts in a relatively short period of time. The forecast calls for these showers and storms to continue through Thursday at least. Most locations across Southeast Texas have received at least some rain over the past few days. Since the ground is partially if not totally saturated in some locations there is concern about an increasing flood threat. Some showers and storms may begin to train over the same areas which could result in significant rain accumulations possibly exceeding five inches in local spots. Due to that threat the National Weather Service in League City has issued a Flood Watch for much of Southeast Texas through Thursday Evening. Bryan, College Station, Huntsville, Houston, Galveston, and Liberty are all cities included. Not everyone will see flooding or significant rainfall but those that do could get it in a hurry.
…FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES…AUSTIN…BRAZORIA…BRAZOS…BURLESON… CHAMBERS…COLORADO…FORT BEND…GALVESTON…GRIMES… HARRIS…HOUSTON…JACKSON…LIBERTY…MADISON…MATAGORDA… MONTGOMERY…POLK…SAN JACINTO…TRINITY…WALKER…WALLER… WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.
* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
* A HIGHLY MOISTENED TROPICAL AIR MASS…WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT OVER REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AN AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS IN RECENT DAYS. SHORT DURATION RAIN RATES COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE STRONGER SLOWER MOVING CELL CLUSTERS TO QUICKLY CREATE FLOODING SCENARIOS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING…WITH LOCALIZED 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS.
* COMMUNITIES THAT RECEIVE GREATER THAN 2 TO 3 INCHES OF HOURLY RAINFALL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING FLOODING. GREATER THAN 4 INCH 6 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CREATE FLOODING ISSUES.
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS…ABANDON IT AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
TURN AROUND…DON`T DROWN!
Finally here is the rainfall accumulation forecast through Friday Morning from the Weather Prediction Center. This is an average which means some locations will receive less and others could receive more rain than this graphic indicates. Remember to avoid flooded roadways and do not let your children play in flood waters!