11:30 PM Texas Weather Roundup & Overnight Storm Forecast
- Tuesday, 19 April 2016 23:35
- Written by David Reimer
The threat of severe weather should slowly lower over the next few hours across North Texas and the Big Country. A couple storms will continue to be capable of producing hail up to the size of quarters and localized wind gusts over 60 MPH. The threat for localized flooding is also there as storms are producing very heavy rains. Storms should move into the immediate D/FW metroplex sometime after 1 AM. The line of storms now extends west to Abilene and all the way west to Andrews near the New Mexico border. All this activity is moving east/southeast around 25-30 MPH. Some storms out in the Big Country and West Texas may produce marginally severe hail overnight. Likewise the threat for localized flash flooding will also exist.
- For weather updates overnight I suggest you follow your local National Weather Service office on social media or on their website at www.weather.gov
- We do have a free interactive weather radar available on our website here. You can use it to track activity near you – or on the other side of the state.
- Got our free mobile app yet? Go check it out in your app store by searching for ‘Texas Storm Chasers’. It also has our free interactive weather radar included.
- Heavy rain and localized flooding will become the main problem after 3 AM. A few storms with quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts could occur overnight.
Life-threatening and extremely dangerous flood event underway in/west of Houston
- Monday, 18 April 2016 08:10
- Written by David Reimer
Major flash flood event is underway in and west/northwest of the Houston metro this morning. Several locations have picked up 10 to 18 inches of rain overnight. Heavy rain continues to build into the area and rain totals continue to rise. An additional 2 to 6 inches of rain could fall through the early afternoon in some areas – bringing total rain accumulations over 20 inches in spots. Many bayous are in major flood stage. Understand that this is not your typical Houston flooding and that we are going to have serious issues. Do not travel if at all possible as numerous roads – including highways – are closed due to flooding. I won’t try to list all the closures here. I encourage you to follow local media, the National Weather Service in Houston, and the Harris County Flood Control District for continuous updates. We’ll have a more detailed forecast update for the region after 9 AM. Additional rain is likely today as another round forms further west.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
705 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016
…FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY EXPANDED SOUTHEAST…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…
CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS…
* UNTIL 900 AM CDT
* AT 701 AM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SUGARLAND HAS REPORTED
OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
SUGAR LAND…NORTHERN MISSOURI CITY…NORTHEASTERN ROSENBERG…
STAFFORD…BELLAIRE…WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE…RICHMOND…HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE…PINEY POINT VILLAGE…ASTRODOME AREA…SPRING VALLEY…
GREATER FIFTH WARD…FOURTH WARD…PECAN GROVE…FIRST COLONY…
NEARTOWN / MONTROSE…SECOND WARD…GREATER EASTWOOD…DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON AND GREATER HEIGHTS.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. STAY OFF
ROADS IN THE EMERGENCY AREA.
TURN AROUND…DON’T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.
10 PM Texas Weather Update & Overnight Rain/Flood Forecast
- Sunday, 17 April 2016 21:54
- Written by David Reimer
We’re monitoring several areas of rain ongoing this evening. Additional activity is expected to develop overnight as an upper level system slowly moves closer. Moisture content in the atmosphere is near record-high values for mid-April. The severe weather threat this evening is slowly diminishing although a few storms with hail can’t be ruled out overnight. The primary issue will be flash flooding. The high moisture content in the atmosphere will allow for very heavy rain production. At the same time a compounding problem will be very slow storm movement and training. Training occurs when thunderstorms continue to move over the same locations. We saw that happen many times in 2015 and the result was a quick 5 to 10 inches of rain in a couple hours. Sometimes you can get a few hour lead time on where those bands will set up and other times – like tonight – you just have to wait and see. Short-term weather models are not handling the placement of precipitation well and so we’re just going off what we see develop. Flash flooding is becoming more likely on the western sections of the Houston metro where a stationary storm is dumping very heavy rain. Additional storms are starting to slowly develop in Central Texas and could cause more flooding tonight. Yet another training band of heavy rain extends from Graham northeast to Nocona and could cause flooding through midnight. As if that wasn’t enough a couple strong storms have been dumping small hail in Lubbock over the past hour. It won’t rain everywhere tonight but I do anticipate additional heavy rain and storms will develop. Some locations will have flooding problems tonight and more rain/storms will develop on Monday. The highest risk for very heavy rain and flash flooding will be in Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, southern North Texas, and Southeast Texas overnight. Those who live in a flood-susceptible area should stay alert tonight. Follow your local National Weather Service office and preferred local media. You can also track the rain and storms using our free mobile app and interactive radar.
Chance of rain or storms tonight
Chance of rain or storms on Monday
Tornado Watch Likely for the Texas Panhandle Soon; Dangerous Evening Possible!
- Friday, 15 April 2016 14:46
- Written by David Reimer
The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service offices will coordinate a tornado watch for the Texas Panhandle over the next hour. Conditions are coming together to support the possibility of a rather substantial severe weather threat in the Texas Panhandle this evening. Multiple supercells capable of producing baseball size hail will likely begin developing by 5 PM across the western Panhandle. As they move east into an enviornment with higher moisture the cloud bases will lower. Strong low-level wind shear will support the possibility of tornadoes this evening.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES…SERN CO…FAR
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151938Z – 152145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…95 PERCENT
SUMMARY…THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SVR MODES IS
INCREASING…AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED PRIOR TO
DISCUSSION…A DRYLINE IS SHARPENING FROM SERN CO SWD ALONG THE W
TX/ERN NM BORDER. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGING OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED DRYLINE SOLENOIDS TO
FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
20-22Z TIME FRAME. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE E OF THE DRYLINE
SURMOUNTED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.8 C/KM SAMPLED BY THE 18Z
AMA RAOB WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING
YIELDING ROBUST CONVECTION. INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO 40-50
KT ORIENTED WITH AN ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL ALONG WITH SVR WIND
GUSTS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH — ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET — WILL
SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL…AS WELL — LASTING INTO THE EVENING
DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS CONVECTION SPREADS
Extreme Fire Danger This Afternoon & Wednesday
- Tuesday, 22 March 2016 06:46
- Written by David Reimer
There will be several weather concerns over the next two days. Temperatures will be very warm to downright hot this afternoon and will be even warmer on Wednesday. Winds are already gusting up to 30 MPH this morning and will likely stay that way into Wednesday evening. Wind directions will vary depending on time of day and one’s specific location. Since we’re talking about a large area I’m not going to dive into the wind direction. Those who need specific wind information (aviation interests, fire-weather interests) should check their local forecast with the National Weather Service. Wind speeds are not expected to diminish tonight.
The biggest concern for the next two days will be extreme fire danger across the western half of Texas. Temperatures will be very warm to downright hot. Wind speeds will be gusting up to 45-50 MPH. Relative humidity values will drop below 25 percent. Some locations will see relative humidity values drop to 5-10 percent this afternoon and again on Wednesday afternoon. A complicating factor is that relative humidity values are not expected to rise above 40 percent tonight. Typically we see RH values recover nicely overnight. That will not be the case tonight. As such fire danger will remain very high all night as winds continue to gust over 30 MPH. Energy Release Component (ERC) values have continued to rise over the past few days due to the warm weather and dry winds. Conditions are ripe for significant wildfires. Any fire that develops over the next two days in the highest risk zones could become major incidents. If you see fire or smoke please notify your local fire department immediately. Trust me when I say they would rather be called out on a good-intent call then not get notification of a new fire. Ground and air resources are being staged and will be ready to respond to fires over the next two days. Both today and Wednesday have been designated extremely critical fire weather days. We don’t see those often. The most critical fire weather conditions will spread east on Wednesday as a dryline surges towards I-35. The risk of thunderstorms will increase across Wednesday evening along and east of Interstate 35. Some severe thunderstorms will be possible with large hail and damaging winds. We’ll address the thunderstorm-aspect of this system in a separate post later this morning.