Several supercell thunderstorms are underway southeast of the D/FW Metroplex. These storms are moving north/northeast around 50 MPH. One storm is southwest of Ennis, a second south of Corsicana, and a third just west of Athens. These storms are all showing strong rotation and may produce tornadoes as they move north/northeast. Additional thunderstorms are developing across western North Texas. A ‘lull’ is underway from the D/FW Metroplex into western sections of the metro. I’m watching this area closely since there is a chance storms could start developing shortly. Any storm in North Texas that develops could become severe and potentially tornadic. A Tornado watch is in effect with most storms moving north/northeast around 50 MPH. We’re all out chasing so updates will be infrequent. You can track the storms with our free interactive weather radar, follow updates from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth, and tune in to local media for tornado coverage.
New Tornado Watch for Northeast Texas and East Texas until 9 AM
The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service have issued a Tornado Watch for Northeast Texas, East Texas, and the Brazos Valley until 9 AM. A line of severe storms near the D/FW Metroplex will continue to move east this morning with a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat. A dangerous supercell just southeast of College Station is moving northeast. That storm and any other discrete supercells that can form will have an enhanced tornado threat this morning.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 445 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 445 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE… A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY…A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING…WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO…ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Tornado Warning: Northeast Tarrant County until 4:45 PM
Tornado Warning for northeast Tarrant county until 4:45 PM. A funnel cloud has been observed by National Weather Service personal outside their window at I-820 and Beach. This storm is moving northeast at 40 MPH and could produce a brief/weak tornado. Keller, Southlake, Colleyville, and Grapevine are in this warning.
TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 417 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR… NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
* UNTIL 445 PM CST
* AT 417 PM CST…A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH RICHLAND HILLS…OR OVER WATAUGA…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
SOURCE…WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR… SOUTHLAKE…TROPHY CLUB AND ROANOKE AROUND 430 PM CST. GRAPEVINE AROUND 435 PM CST. FLOWER MOUND AROUND 440 PM CST.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE WESTLAKE.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 22.
TO REPEAT…A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS…IN A MOBILE HOME…OR IN A VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Lower Humidity & Cooler Temperatures Arrive on Friday
After a month of above average temperatures and little in the way of fall weather it finally looks like that may be about to change. Weather models are showing a variety of solutions for the end of the work week. Some weather models bring a strong cold front into Texas with a noticeable drop in temperatures along with much drier air. Other models still bring drier air and lower humidity into the state but keep the cooler air north. Either way dewpoint temperatures should noticeably drop for the end of the work week into the weekend.
The North American Model (NAM) is showing an active pattern aloft by Thursday Night. A trough with an upper level low across the Southeast United States should bring a north/northwest flow aloft. That pattern would bring drier air and hopefully a decent cold front for the end of the work week.
Forecast confidence for the Thursday-Saturday timeframe is low. The reason for the low confidence forecast is weather model variability. One weather model sets up a pattern which would bring a strong cold front south into Texas. Another model keeps the high pressure aloft in place with continued above-average temperatures. The official forecast from the National Weather Service uses a blend of the weather model data. High temperatures on Friday will be noticeably cooler along and north of Interstate 10 with upper 60s to mid 80s. Obviously the most noticeable cool off will be across the northern portions of Texas. Another benefit of this cold front is that a northerly flow will usher in much drier air. That means lower dewpoints and lower humidity across all of Texas – even if temperatures remain warm.
Precipitation chances will greatly depend on how the upper air pattern sets up at the end of the week. There may be some rain chances across the Panhandle and Northwest Texas but overall I don’t expect a big rain maker with this upcoming front. The Weather Prediction Center indicates only very light precipitation totals on Friday in the Panhandle. The remainder of the precipitation shown across Southeast Texas is from potential rain today.
Watching for Tropical Mischief in the Gulf of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula this evening. Various weather models have been hinting at the possibility of this system becoming a weak tropical cyclone for a few days now. Let me start off by saying that an upper level low located over South Texas is going to keep this system east of Texas. Should this system develop it will be a threat to the northern Gulf Coast between Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle.
This evening’s tropical weather model tracks are in fairly decent agreement about a track to the north/northeast over the next few days. Invest 99 should move into the southern Gulf of Mexico early on Sunday. This evening’s water vapor imagery does not show anything particularly organized. A flareup of convective activity is noted off the eastern coast of the Yucatan but overall just a broad area of disorganized activity. Regardless of tropical cyclone development the low pressure system should make progress to the north on Sunday. With an upper level low located over the Texas coast the steering currents should cause Invest 99 to make a turn to the north/northeast Sunday Night into Monday. The system should continue a north/northeast track on Monday and be near the northern Gulf Coast by Monday Night into the morning hours on Tuesday.
Tropical weather models are not aggressive with the development of Invest 99. While sea surface temperatures are certainly quite warm over the Gulf the upper low over the Texas coast is creating some wind shear over the Gulf. Tropical cyclones thrive on low-wind shear environments so conditions will only be marginally conducive for development. If Invest 99 is able to become a tropical cyclone we’re looking at it being a tropical depression or perhaps a weak tropical storm. By far the biggest impacts will be from heavy rain.
Moisture from Invest 99 in combination with the upper level low located on the Texas Coast will enhance precipitation chances on the Southeast Texas coast over the coming days. The Weather Prediction Center rainfall forecast through Thursday shows the potential track of Invest 99 in the Southeast United States. Besides the Texas coast it’s looking like a fairly dry week for most of Texas as an upper level high pressure builds in.
The following is the full tropical weather outlook text from the National Hurricane Center for Invest 99. An area of low pressure located over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is expected to move northward at about 10 mph into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and should then move more quickly northward or northeastward as it interacts with an upper-level low near the Texas coast. While upper-level winds are only expected to be marginally conducive, there is some potential for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days before it reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and southeastern United States early next week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if necessary. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent