Hurricane Simon has rapidly intensified today and is now a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 MPH. This marks the 8th Major Hurricane in this record breaking Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. Simon is 365 miles southwest the southern tip of Baja California. While this hurricane is still moving northwest it will turn to the north and eventually northeast early next week and could directly impact Baja California in a much weakened state.
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
…SIMON SAYS IT IS A MAJOR HURRICANE TO A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 495 MI…800 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…120 MPH…195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 200 PM PDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED BY MONDAY.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH…195 KM/H…WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT TIME…WEAKENING IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.
SIMON REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB…28.06 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL…SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…800 PM PDT.
There are indications in weather model guidance that remnant moisture from Simon could stream northeast into the Southwest United States late next week. Such a solution would result in increased precipitation chances. Confidence in such an event is very low and thus any sort of forecast accuracy at that range is also low. We’ll keep a close on eye on the potential for increased rain chances from Simon’s remnants down the road. For now all we can do is hope that Simon eventually says it wants to bring rain to our drought-stricken state.