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Your Overnight Severe Weather Forecast

Shortly before 9 PM we’re down to a couple severe thunderstorm warnings in the state. A large area of rain and thunderstorms continue to move northeast across Northeast Texas and East Texas. Several locations have received 3 to 5 inches of rain today with flash flooding an issue. Be mindful of flooded roadways and that you might not be able to see them easily at night. I myself almost had an issue with a flooded road on a chase today. Some storms may produce quarter size hail and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. The tornado threat – while not zero – has diminished compared to this afternoon in those two regions.

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A squall line is in the process of developing from near Paris southwest through Terrell to Waco and Fort Hood.   This line of storms is slowly pushing east. Some storms may produce hail up to the size of quarters and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. An isolated tornado is not out of the question but the overall tornado threat is diminishing. Localized flooding could occur especially in locations that have already received heavy rain today.

Overnight it’s possible a squall line takes shape in South-Central Texas into East Texas. Some of the storms in that squall line could be strong to severe with quarter size hail, damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH, and isolated tornadoes. The severe weather threat will not be as high compared to storms earlier this afternoon. Flash flooding is also a threat in East and Southeast Texas. The squall line itself could approach the Houston metro between 4 AM and 8 AM Saturday as it pushes into Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains overnight. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a way to receive weather warnings tonight. WeatherRadio by WDT is a wonderful app my family and I personally use.

Severe Weather Risk Returns This Evening & Especially on Friday

There will be two potential regions of thunderstorm potential through the morning hours Friday. The first region is across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and West-Central Texas late this afternoon and early this evening. A surface low pressure taking shape in eastern New Mexico will cause favorable wind shear for organized thunderstorms. At the same time marginal moisture levels will be on the increase across the aforementioned regions throughout the day. The quality of moisture looks limited which will likely keep storms that develop this afternoon high-based. I mention high-based storms because they typically have only a very low risk of producing tornadoes. The overall tornado risk today is very low, fortunately. The primary severe weather threat with the strongest storms this afternoon and early evening will be large hail up to the size of golfballs and localized damaging wind gusts over 65 MPH. As storms move northeast they should begin to weaken by the early evening hours as they move into a more stable environment. That leads us into the second region of potential thunderstorm activity. A warm front will be moving north tonight. As the warm front moves north moisture levels will quickly increase and the atmosphere will become more stable. Lift associated with the warm front will help generate scattered thunderstorms overnight across Northwest Texas, Texoma, and portions of North Texas. Right now the highest chance for a few severe storms with hail will be within 50 to 70 miles of the Red River. The strongest storms¬†will be elevated (rooted above the cap) with a threat of hail up to the size of ping-pong balls. Otherwise storms will produce frequent cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rain. Don’t be surprised if you get woken up by a boomer overnight if you live in the aforementioned regions.

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Friday is setting up to be a potentially busy severe weather day. The warm front that will be moving north tonight should push north of Interstate 40 in Oklahoma by Friday afternoon. At the same time a dryline will surge east into the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and Western Oklahoma. The surface low in New Mexico today will be located near Amarillo by the afternoon hours tomorrow. Wind shear values will support organized thunderstorms while the atmosphere – assuming we don’t have widespread clouds/rain hold around – should become very unstable. If we have widespread rain continue near/east of the dryline the atmosphere will be less unstable and the threat for significant severe weather will be lower.

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The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a category 2 severe weather risk for North Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and Northeast Texas. Isolated to widely-spaced supercell thunderstorms may develop after 3 PM just east of the dryline. The strongest storms would become intense with very large hail larger than the size of baseballs, localized damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and a threat for isolated tornadoes. Those storms would move east/northeast through the early evening hours. As a cool front overtakes the dryline by early evening more widespread thunderstorm development should occur as the dryline ‘unzips’ from north to south. Another squall line – similar to the one on Tuesday – would move east into the late night and early morning hours on Saturday. That squall line would be capable of producing damaging straight-line winds, hail up to the size of ping-pong balls, and brief tornadoes. There are still uncertainties which is why we’re looking at a broad category 2 risk area. Once confidence increases on where the highest coverage of severe weather will occur there may be upgrades in the risk zone. MayFest also starts up tomorrow and something always seems to happen during that period soooooooooo we’ll be watching it closely.

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Widespread precipitation starting Friday evening through Saturday could bring one to four inches of rain to locations along and east of Interstate 35 from the Red River through the Brazos Valley. Soils remain saturated and some flash flooding is anticipated. If we can get all that rain to fall over a period of a day we shouldn’t see too much flash flooding. If we have all that rain fall in the period of a few hours I do expect flash flood warnings will light up East Texas. Additional river rises are anticipated although the extent of which will depend on how much rain falls upstream. This shouldn’t be a major flood event but after last week we’ll be watching it closely.

 

Tornado Warning: Grayson County till 1030PM

Tornado Warning for central Grayson County in North Texas until 10:30 PM. Radar detected possible tornado near DOrchester moving towards Sherman. This storm is moving northeast at 50 MPH. Folks in Sherman should move to shelter now!!!

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
958 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL GRAYSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 958 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER DORCHESTER…OR NEAR SHERMAN…MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS…AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
TOM BEAN AROUND 1005 PM CDT.
SHERMAN AND KNOLLWOOD AROUND 1010 PM CDT.
DENISON AND BELLS AROUND 1015 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LUELLA
AND SOUTHMAYD.

Tornado Warning: Cooke County until 9:30 PM

Tornado warning for central Cooke county in North Texas until 9:30 PM. Possible developing tornado located 8 miles southwest of Lindsay or 10 miles southwest of Gainesville. Movement it to the northeast at 25 MPH. Lindsay and Gainesville are in the path of this possible developing tornado. Seek shelter now!

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TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
846 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 845 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINDSAY…OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS…AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
LINDSAY AROUND 905 PM CDT.
GAINESVILLE AROUND 915 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE VALLEY
VIEW.

830PM Severe Weather Update; Squall Line organizing as it marches east

At 8:20 PM a line of severe thunderstorms extended from just west of Nocona south along a line to Jacksboro, Palo Pinto, Rising Star, to 15 miles west of Coleman. Additional storms extended from 15 miles south of San Angelo to 10 miles northwest of Eldorado. Most of this activity is moving east at 35 to 40 MPH. We are also watching a small cluster of storms in Denton county moving north into Cooke county – this storm may become a hail threat over the next few minutes. The strongest storms in this line have a history of producing wind damage in Wichita Falls with wind gusts measured up to 70 MPH. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging straight line winds over 70 MPH, quarter size hail, and isolated tornadoes as it moves east towards I-35. At present course this line will likely move into the D/FW Metroplex between 10 PM and 12 AM. The line itself may strengthen with an enhancement of straight line winds possible. We’ll watch trends closely since if the line organizes more it could start producing brief tornadoes. Any discrete storms that develop ahead of the squall line could become supercellular with a tornado risk tonight. That isn’t expected to become a widespread/significant issue but its something we’ll have to watch for tonight.

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The 0Z HRRR weather model has the line of storms extending from near Paris to Corsicana to Waco at 2 AM – although I’m not sure it’ll take that long for the storms to impact Central Texas. We also note the HRRR starts to intensify the storms south of San Angelo into a second line/complex as they move towards San Antonio and Austin this evening. Large hail and damaging straight line winds would be possible with this cluster. The line of storms – in a weakened state compared to what will impact North Texas tonight – will be moving into Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains after 4 AM. Some storms may still be strong.