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Posts Tagged ‘Flordia’
Tropical Depression #4 is born – Will become Colin
Good Afternoon,
This is going to be a brief update as I have alot to get done on this hot summer day in North Texas. Earlier this morning the National Hurricane Center upgraded Invest 91 to Tropical Depression status with winds of 35 MPH or 30 Knots. The storm has had organized convection with it for a few days but a defined low level circulation was not detected until early this morning, thus the reason for the upgrade.Considering it is the diurnal maximum the storm is looking pretty good. Based on the past few nights of observation the storm will likely flare up again this evening and should become Tropical Storm Colin within the next 12 hours.
The track the storm is dependent on many factors, the more significant is the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) along with ridging over the United States. Below are the 12Z Early Model Tracks.
Through Hour 72 the models are consistant in the positioning of what will be Tropical Storm Colin. After that though they split. The two possible solutions on the table right now are the storm recurves to the northeast or it turns west and becomes a threat to Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Yesterday many models were suggesting a Gulf of Mexico threat, but the 0Z models from last night suggested this storm would re-curve. This morning’s models are still showing a re-curve (go out to sea), but some models, like the CMC, are showing a Florida threat. The point is we don’t know where this is going to go yet, so folks from Florida and up the Atlantic seaboard should keep an eye on this storm.
Every model run develops TD #4 into Tropical Storm Colin within the next 18 hours, so we should have a TS by 11 PM tonight. If the storm is able to organize it should continue to strengthen for two to three days until it encounters shear from the TUTT. Shear values will be near 30 knots which will inhibit strengthening, if not cause some weakening. If this storm does not develop over the next two days and is still disorganized by the time it reaches that shear it is possible that a Bonnie solution may come into play where the storm simply dissipates, but that does not look likely at this time. It should be noted none of the models show a Hurricane at this time, but depending on the track, that could change down the road.
We’ll have a much more detailed discussion later tonight regarding the possible outcomes of this storm along with an explanation of what would cause this storm to become a fish, or go out to sea.
- David Reimer
Bonnie – Discussion #4
Good Morning. What we have this morning is Bonnie on its dying breath. Although it has a low level circulation, the pressure last measured by the hurricane hunters was 1013 MB, or the standard atmospheric pressure. Thus that’s not a low pressure at all. As recon was in the storm the pressure rose from 1010 MB to 1013 MB and there were minimal reports of west winds.
Another burst of convection has formed, but is well north of the ‘center’ of Bonnie. Convection formed earlier tonight and had no effect on the system. Wind Shear of 30+ knots is impacting Bonnie and development is not expected. In fact based on the reports from recon it looked like Bonnie was degenerating into an open wave and the hurricane center may confirm that later this morning. There really is not much more to say. Landfall of what ever is left of this system will be overnight tonight in southeast LA but it will most likely only be scattered showers and breezy conditions, much like you would see with a passing cold front. Except the humidity and moisture will be ridiculous. This will most likely be the last update on this system from me as It no longer appears to be a tropical system of any value. Thanks for stopping by! If you have any suggestions or comments I’d be happy to hear from you. Please leave a comment on this post or send us an email via the contact form on the contact page. Either option takes only a minute and is very appreciated.
David Reimer
Tropical Storm Bonnie – Discussion #2
Good Morning. Like I said yesterday I plan on doing one discussion a morning unless something comes up, in which case I’ll do supplemental discussions such as I did yesterday afternoon. The graphic above depicts the model outputs on the track of Tropical Storm Bonnie. These are from the 06Z suite this morning. The models have kept a fairly uniform track over the past day with a landfall in Southeastern Louisiana. They have sped up the system, however, which has brought the landfall time up about twelve hours to the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. Tonight the system has been racing moving at speeds over 20 MPH. That’s pretty high for a tropical system and when recon entered Bonnie earlier this morning the question of whether or not this still was a tropical system (of any kind) become clear.
The first thing to notice about Bonnie this morning is the very small area convection is covering, although it is fairly strong for a system this weak. The problem is that the Low Level Circulation has become detached from that convection, and thus has weakened overnight. When the Hurricane Hunters entered the system at 2 AM CDT they had difficulty finding any west winds, which would indicate a low level circulation, and thus a tropical system. Without a low level circulation this is nothing more then an open wave or a mid-level circulation that could be associated with common weather systems. Recon did eventually find west winds, but they were very weak. At this point its unclear whether or not Bonnie will survive the morning.
If you notice the 5 AM position of Bonnie you will see that she is beginning to encounter stronger wind shear again. Because this system is so weak it does not take a lot of wind shear to negatively affect the circulation and that is exactly what has been observed this morning. At this point winds at the surface are still reaching 40 MPH, but this is mainly associated with the convection not necessarily the low level circulation of the storm. It’s not clear what exactly will happen with Bonnie today. Its possible that the circulation could ramp back up fast and in a few hours look better then it has before, or it could continue to deteriorate and we could end up with an open wave by noontime. The way the system looks now, It is not looking good for the future of Bonnie. Besides that there really isn’t much to talk about. Its clear that Bonnie will not have much time to organize in the gulf and based on her present structure and forecasted conditions in the gulf its not likely she will strengthen significantly. The track forecast has some confidence to it and it looks like landfall will be somewhere in Eastern LA or Western MS.
I will have another discussion posted later this afternoon with the hope Bonnie makes up her mind on what she is going to do, whether she just falls apart or gains some structure in her inner core. Either way the big story will be the heavy rainfall and the unfortunate impacts from the oil spill. Stay tuned to the site, or follow us on our social media accounts for the latest information.
David Reimer
Chase Status
This shows the probability of a storm chase within the next 5 days.
By roczag
By weatherworm