Tag Archives: East Texas

Widespread Rain, Severe Weather, Cold Front and Snow?

Potent Storm System Next Week

It doesn’t take many years of living in Texas to figure out what a mixed bag of weather we’re subjected to throughout the year.  It’s like one of those mystery blind bags you get at parties…it feels like you never know what you’re going to get from week to week.  That’s what we’re going to discuss in this evening’s blog because this weekend and into the early part of next week is shaping up to be very busy with all types of weather expected across the state.  We’ll see widespread rain, a chance for severe weather, a strong cold front and the chance the first snow this season!  To make things easier, I’ll break the blog up into sections and discuss each topic one at a time.

The Rain Chances

Potent Storm System Next Week

Another powerful storm system is expected to drop down across the Rockies and into the southwestern US by early Monday.  Ahead of and in conjunction with this potent system, pacific moisture and increasing lift will be sweeping across the state from the southwest bringing chances of light rain into the state as early as Saturday with more widespread rain expected to develop by Sunday into early Monday.  Rainfall amounts over the weekend are expected to be relatively light, and not everyone will see rain.   The rain will begin early Saturday across the southwestern half of the state and move northeast into parts of central Texas by mid-day.  At least that’s how it looks right now.  As we get into Sunday, the approaching storm system will further aid in generating lift and storms that will further tap into the pacific moisture already in place.  At the same time, a surface high will be moving east away from the state which will kick surface winds around from the south to draw additional moisture up from the gulf.  This will generate much more widespread rain from west to east across the state through Sunday into early Monday.

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The Severe Weather Outlook

While the threat for severe weather looks to be pretty much nonexistent over the weekend, by Monday, we’ll be looking at a chance for strong to severe storms across parts of west central, central and eastern Texas during the afternoon and evenings.  Tuesday, we may see that threat continue into the far eastern/southeastern region of the state dependent upon how fast the system moves and what impact a dryline will have as it sets up across west central Texas just ahead of the next cold front.  As always, a lot will depend on timing of the system and how much instability is expected to be in place as the best forcing for lift arrives with the upper level system.  Right now, the long-range models are showing sufficient instability will be in place by Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday to issue a preliminary outlook.  This is in no way a guarantee that we’ll see severe weather…especially when looking at a forecast that is still quite a number of days out.  We look at these SPC outlooks as more of a heads-up that conditions will likely have the capability to produce strong storms and we’ll need to keep an eye on this in the days to come. Regardless of whether or not the severe weather materialized, heavy rain will be likely and flooding may return as an issue again across central and eastern Texas.

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The Cold Front and…Snow???

Along with the possible threat of severe weather Monday and Tuesday, we’ll have additional widespread rain chances and a strong cold front sweeping in as the upper level system moves over us.  A surface low looks to setup over northern Oklahoma which may act to draw moisture from the rain out ahead up and over and around into the panhandle region by early Tuesday.  With temperatures expected to be at or near freezing by that time, it’s possible you folks will see your first snow of the season!  With temps so warm in the days ahead, the ground will still be much too warm to see much accumulation with any snow that does manage to develop.  Again, still too far out to be certain about snow…and because we know you’ll ask…there will NOT be any threat of snow for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area…but we’ll be monitoring this and everything else over the weekend, so be sure to check back each day!

Cold front sweeps thru early Tues

Panhandle snow Tues - Wed

Statewide Heavy Rain Event Wednesday-Saturday

After months of expectation and anticipation we can finally say the rain is on the way. An active period of weather across all of Texas is making for busy times. Since all of Texas is expecting rain at some point this week I’ve broken down this blog into rain chances, severe weather potential, flood risk, and the overall temperature trends. As always there is some uncertainty in the forecast so you can expect refinements during the event. All of that said lets get down to it!

Day by Day breakdown on Rain Chances

Chance of rain/storms Today

Chance of rain/storms Today

Chance of rain/storms Tonight

Chance of rain/storms Tonight

A few coastal showers are possible in Southeast Texas this afternoon. Otherwise we’ll be looking out west for the beginning of our rain event across Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across Far West Texas, the Permian Basin, the South Plains, and the western two-thirds of the Texas Panhandle. By tonight activity will become widespread across the far western Texas and the New Mexico/Texas border in the South Plains into the Texas Panhandle.

Chance of rain/storms Wednesday

Chance of rain/storms Wednesday

Chance of rain/storms Wednesday Night

Chance of rain/storms Wednesday Night

Scattered showers and storm chances will spread east on Wednesday to include the Concho Valley, Big Country, South-Central Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. Numerous showers and storm chances will continue for the Texas Panhandle and Far West Texas. Widespread activity will continue Wednesday Night across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Northwest Texas, Permian Basin, Far West Texas, and Southwest Texas.

Chance of rain/storms Thursday

Chance of rain/storms Thursday

Chance of rain/storms Thursday Night

Chance of rain/storms Thursday Night

Widespread/numerous showers and storms will continue on Thursday across the Texas Panhandle, Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, South PLains, Southwest Texas, and South Texas. Scattered activity is forecast across North Texas, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. Numerous showers/storms will spread east into North Texas, Central Texas, and Southeast Texas in addition to previously mentioned areas Thursday Night.

Chance of rain/storms Friday

Chance of rain/storms Friday

Chance of rain/storms Friday Night

Chance of rain/storms Friday Night

Friday is going to be very wet across North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, the bIg Country, Concho Valley, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. Those rain chances will continue into Friday Night. By Saturday we should start to see activity diminish in coverage west of Interstate 35 – but it does look wet for some of the football games. We’ll detail the rain chances for the weekend once we get closer.

Forecast Rain Totals


The latest rain total forecast through Saturday from the Weather Prediction Center continues to show a statewide precipitation event. Widespread rain accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected across all of Texas. The only exception may be far Southwest Texas where lighter totals are forecast. Localized rain totals over 5 inches are possible but those exact spots cannot be accurately forecast until we’re within 24 hours (at best). This is going to be our best/most widespread rain event since Tropical Storm Bill back in June and I expect everyone in Texas to get rain by the time this event concludes this weekend.

Flash Flood Potential for Wednesday

Flash Flood Potential for Wednesday

Flash Flood Potential for Thursday

Flash Flood Potential for Thursday

Flash flooding is a possibility across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Rolling Plains, Concho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, and North Texas based on the current outlook from the Weather Prediction Center. Folks out in the Permian Basin and West Texas saw a good rain event about two weeks ago while locations further east haven’t seen diddly squat in weeks to months. The flood threat will continue to be evaluated but with very dry conditions its going to take quite a bit of rain to start up the flooding again. Obviously if we see very heavy rain in a short period of time the dry soils will only help so much.

Severe Weather Threat

Severe Weather Outlook for Today

Severe Weather Outlook for Today

An adequate combination of wind shear and instablity will be present today to support the possibility of a few severe thunderstorms across the South Plains, Permian Basin, and Far West Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a level 2 severe weather risk for Southeast New Mexico, Far West Texas, and western parts of the South Plains. A level 1 marginal risk includes Southwest Texas, the Permian Basin, and the western half of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. The strongest storms today could become supercellular with large hail and localized damaging wind gusts. One or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out but the tornado threat is on the low-end of the spectrum.

Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday

Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday

A marginal severe weather risk is in place for Wednesday across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Permian Basin, Far West Texas, and parts of the Big Country. Wind shear will be supportive of some organized thunderstorms but widespread cloud cover and precipitation are currently forecast to keep the atmosphere only marginally unstable. As we get closer and localized corridors of instablity become more clear we may see part of the risk area upgraded to a level 2/possible risk in later outlooks. Hail and localized damaging winds would again be the primary issue along with a low tornado threat.


Temperatures will be seasonal during the precipitation event. We likely won’t see much variation in day/night temperatures due to the widespread clouds and precipitation. High temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to mid 80s this week once we get rain going. Locations that are not receiving rain at times this week will be warmer with 80s.

Your Steamy July 14, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the July 14th edition of the Texas Weather Roundup. In the dog days of summer these can become pretty repetitive day after day. With an El Nino in place we’ll have to watch for periods of active weather this summer. We will not be dealing with anything un-summerlike for the next few days. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon and evening up in the Texas Panhandle. Everyone else will be left high and dry. If you’re lucky you may see a cloud or two to give some shade this afternoon. Otherwise I recommend you get a hat.



WIth clear skies and a heat ridge in place temperatures will quickly warm into the mid 90s by lunchtime. Along and east of Interstate 35 in Texas will be where higher humidity values results in elevated heat index temperatures. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s into the lower 100s. Heat index temperatures, or what it feels like with the humidity, will be 103 to 108 degrees along and east of Interstate 35. The most oppressive values will be across Northeast and East Texas. If it makes you feel better parts of northern Oklahoma could see heat index temperatures reach 115 degrees today. Light south winds will at least help stir the air a bit.


Another complicating factor will be that low temperatures tonight won’t drop off too much in the urban corridors along/east of Interstate 35. This means heat index values overnight will remain in the 80s. Those sensitive to the heat or without air conditioning will be particularly susceptible to heat-related issues. Rural areas will see temperatures drop into the lower 70s. Much of the same will be seen on Wednesday and through the rest of the work week.

Timeline for Impacts from Bill across North and Central Texas

General forecast timeline and path of Bill. Remember the heaviest rains and tornado threat will be along and east of the track. Don't focus on that line since impacts will occur well away from the center.

General forecast timeline and path of Bill. Remember the heaviest rains and tornado threat will be along and east of the track. Don’t focus on that line since impacts will occur well away from the center.

* We are aware that some cable networks and other entities have been creating a ridiculous amount of hype about this storm. We don’t do that and if you look back over our posts you’ll see that. However this is a serious situation. Not everyone will see heavy rain or flooding – but we certainly do have the potential for localized high-end/catastrophic flooding along with more widespread flooding.

* Rain intensity will increase across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley tonight resulting in a widespread flash flooding threat. Serious localized flash flooding is possible.

* More rain should begin moving into the D/FW Metroplex around 3 AM on Wednesday. I emphasis that this event has not begun yet for North Texas and will be a Wednesday-Wednesday Night event for North Texas We still expect 3 to 6 inches widespread rain accumulations along and just east of Bill’s track through Thursday morning. Localized rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are also expected which will cause a more serious flooding event. Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security just yet. It won’t be raining all the time everywhere.

* Bill slowed down earlier today and that’s why things have been relatively quiet so far. That will change tonight as the low pressure area becomes a bit more organized and we see rain intensity increase.

* The threat for flooding and heavy rain across portions of North Texas, Central Texas, East Texas, and Southwest Texas has not ended. Frankly we haven’t even gotten underway yet.

* Spinup tornadoes will be possible just east of the center of Bill overnight across East Texas. These tornadoes will likely be small, weak, and brief. However their nature means very little warning may occur.

* Extremely high moisture content is in the atmosphere. That’s how we’ll get very heavy rain rates tonight and on Wednesday. We may not see much lightning but rain rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are probable in spots.


Severe Weather Expected Tomorrow

A strong upper level storm system along with a southward advancing cold front will slam into a strongly unstable, humid air mass on Thursday across North, Central, and East Texas. A severe weather event is anticipated tomorrow as a line of thunderstorms should develop along an advancing cold front by the mid-afternoon hours. Ingredients will be in place to support the risk of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Northeast and East Texas in an enhanced risk of severe weather tomorrow running along and east of US-75 from Sherman to Dallas and north of Interstate 20 from Mesquite to Marshall. A larger area of severe weather risk includes much of North and Central Texas into the Hill Country along with the Brazos Valley and East Texas. Ingredients are coming together for the possibility of a severe weather outbreak with a line of severe thunderstorms.


An upper level jet will dip south into Texas by the late morning and early afternoon hours tomorrow. By the mid-afternoon this upper level jet should be favorably positioned in conjunction with an advancing cold front. Winds at 500 millibars or about 18,500 feet above sea level will be exceeding 45-55 knots. The minimum wind speed I like to see for more organized thunderstorms is 35-40 knots at 500 millibars so the upper level winds will support an organized convective mode. The reason we look for stronger winds in the upper atmosphere is that the winds will help blow precipitation away from a thunderstorm’s updraft thus allowing warm, unstable air to continue feeding into it. When upper level winds are weak precipitation has a tendency to fall straight down or into the updraft. When precipitation falls back into the updraft the warm/unstable air is cut off and the thunderstorm weakens. During the summer months we refer to those storms as popcorn storms since they go up quickly, produce a light of lightning and heavy rain, but quickly weaken and usually dissipate within 30-45 minutes often resulting in a localized microburst. Since winds tomorrow in the upper levels of the atmosphere should blow rain out of the updrafts we expected a more organized convective mode and longer lived storms.


If you’ve been outside today you know temperatures are quite hot and muggy. Temperatures are well above average across North Texas today and will be again tomorrow as surface temperatures climb into the lower 90s. One way to measure moisture in the atmosphere is the dewpoint temperature. The dew points this afternoon across the eastern half of Texas are in the 50s, 60s, and even 70s. Honestly today feels like an April or May afternoon which is usually not a good thing when you’re talking about a upcoming storm system in early October. With a very moist atmosphere in place ahead of the cold front tomorrow the atmosphere is going to become strongly unstable. Surface based convective available potential energy (CAPE) values will exceed 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg by the afternoon hours Thursday. Those are fairly impressive values for October and in combination with the strong upper level dynamics and cold front could support an appreciable severe weather threat.



One unknown factor that is still causing some uncertainty is the actual placement of the cold front when thunderstorms begin developing Thursday afternoon. Some model solutions have thunderstorms developing east of I-35 and keeping the D/FW Metroplex and everyone west of I-35 will remain dry. Other models suggest thunderstorms will begin developing along a Nocona-Mineral Wells-LaLampasasine. The first storms will begin developing across Oklahoma and gradually build south along the cold front. Thus the first storms will develop near the Red River and build south into Texas as the cold front moves east. Hence where the cold front ends up when storms fire will determine exactly where the rain chances begin. Based on current data and the National Weather Service Fort Worth’s thinking the current forecast shows thunderstorms developing just west of the D/FW Metroplex and I-35/I-35W by the mid afternoon hours. Thunderstorm cocoverageill increase as the cold front/squall line moves into D/FW with a nearly solid line of storms by the time they end up east of D/FW and US-75/I-45 in the enhanced risk zone. This could chance and storms could fire further west or east and radically chance the overall storm chances for the D/FW Metroplex.

Due to the combination of favorable ingredients for severe weather once storms get going they will likely become strong to severe quickly with a threat for damaging straight line winds exceeding 60 MPH and hail up to the size of golfballs. Not everyone will be hit by thunderstorms tomorrow. Not everyone who gets a storm tomorrow will receive large hail or damaging winds. The overall setup favors a linear event (squall line) with low level wind shear unidirectional and marginal. The tornado threat will be low but not zero. Any individual thunderstorms that manage to stay by themselves for a while or interact with an outflow boundary could produce hail up to the size of hen eggs and exhibit some rotation. While weak low level winds will keep any tornado threat localized and marginal any supercell storms will have to be watched.

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