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Tag Archives: East Texas

Evening Update – Another Round of Heavy Rain & Storms Overnight/Early Thursday

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Heavy rain and thunder continue across parts of southeast Texas, south central Texas and East Texas this evening.  I suppose you could call this Round 2, and it’s looking highly likely we’ll see Round 3 late tonight and early tomorrow as additional storms continue to develop over the Gulf waters.  The Storm Prediction Center’s latest update keeps the far southeastern edge of the state within a Slight Risk for severe weather. So far, we’ve seen very few instances of severe weather this afternoon.  However, conditions remain favorable for the development of stronger storms along the upper coastal plains and into Louisiana late tonight into early Thursday as Round 3 makes it onshore.  Sufficient instability with increasing lift from the approaching low will provide an environment favorable for a couple of severe storms containing damaging wind gusts and possibly one or two tornadoes.  This is not a high probability, but it’s there.

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I’m sure you’re tired of reading this by now, but flooding will continue to be an issue overnight into early Thursday.  The latest Storm Prediction Center precipitation analysis targets 2+ inch per hour rainfall rates likely during this period as moisture is channeled between a couple of stalled atmospheric boundaries situated across southeast Texas.  These boundaries have effectively channeled gulf moisture over a rather narrow corridor creating a series of training storms over the past 12 to 18 hours.  So far, we’ve only seen reports of nuisance flooding across southeast Texas, but this will likely become much more problematic by early tomorrow.  Expect a rough commute tomorrow morning and be sure to check local news for road conditions before heading out the door and allow extra time to reach your destination.

mcd0064Here’s how the radar might shape up overnight and through 9am tomorrow.  The following images were pulled from the latest run of the high-resolution HRRR forecast model.  David will be up tonight and early tomorrow providing coverage and the latest updates, so be sure to check back before you head out tomorrow!      

Midnight 3am 6am 9am

Sunny Skies & Breezy Today with Seasonal Temperatures

The storm system responsible for widespread rain yesterday across Texas is now bringing a risk of strong tornadoes to the Carolinas. Our weather will be much more tranquil. High temperatures this afternoon will return to near average with upper 50s to upper 60s across the state. As usual the Rio Grande Valley will be the warmest with a couple folks climbing into the 70s. It’ll be breezy with northwest winds gusting up to 20-25 MPH this afternoon. Winds yesterday gusted over 40 MPH in spots. Residual clouds over East Texas will clear out leaving sunny skies for all of the state this afternoon.

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Low temperatures by sunrise Thursday will be fairly chilly across Texas. Lows will drop off into the 20s across the Texas Panhandle and the South Plains. The remainder of Texas will see temperatures vary from the upper 20s to right around 40 degrees. Topographical features may result in a morning with low temperatures varying drastically over a short distance. No precipitation is expected through the end of the work week.

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Quiet weather with seasonal temperatures

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It is a very cold morning across parts of the state. The good news is temperatures will rebound quite nicely this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly clear through the day. Clouds will be on the increase tonight across the Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas as a storm system begins its approach. Moisture levels will be too low for anything more than a few sprinkles on Friday Night. Temperatures this afternoon will peak around their averages for early February. Nothing too cold and nothing exceptionally warm. There may be a slight wind chill – especially across the Texas Panhandle.

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Tonight will be a few degrees warmer compared to this morning across the western half of Texas. Meanwhile Northeast Texas and East Texas will actually be colder. Temperatures statewide will range from the lower 20s to right around 40 degrees. Cloud cover will be on the increase across the Panhandle, Northwest Texas, into West-Central Texas tonight.

A Couple Strong to Marginally Severe Storms Possible Friday Evening in East & Southeast Texas

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We’ll start out looking at the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for tomorrow. After that I’ll discuss some of the aspects of tomorrow’s setup. Unlike the December 26th setup we’re not going to be dealing with a spring-like system. Tomorrow will be much more tame and in line with what we expect in the winter months. A marginal risk of severe weather has been issued for East Texas, Southeast Texas, and part of the Brazos Valley. On a five level risk system tomorrow’s setup is at a level one – the lowest risk. Tyler, B/CS, Houston, Lufkin, Pittsburg, and Port Arthur are a few cities in the risk. Tomorrow’s storm setup is marginal but we could see a few storms become strong to borderline severe. Those stronger storms would likely be hailers with stones up to the size of quarters. Some wind gusts up to 50-60 MPH could also occur. A very low risk of a brief tornado may develop across Southeast Texas. While a brief tornado may occur the overall tornado risk is very low.

Surface dewpoint values from the 12Z 4KM NAM Friday Evening

Surface dewpoint values from the 12Z 4KM NAM Friday Evening

One factor limiting the severe weather threat on Friday will be limited moisture return. As is common for the winter months moisture levels will be on the low-end for a severe weather threat. Dewpoint values along the coast and in Southeast Texas should be in the low to mid 60s by dinnertime Friday. Further north into East and Northeast Texas dewpoint values will range from 54 to 58 degrees. I like to see values over 60 degrees for more organized severe thunderstorms during the cool season. In the spring and summer months you ideally want to see dewpoints above 65 degrees for significant, surface-based supercell potential. The depth of the moisture coming in from the northwest Gulf will also limit the severe weather potential. We’ll keep an eye on things along the coast and just inland across Southeast Texas as that is where moisture levels will be highest tomorrow evening.

Potential Instability Levels around 9 PM Friday

Potential Instability Levels around 9 PM Friday

Even though moisture levels will be limited there will be some instability elevated above the surface across East Texas. That instablity will likely be above a stable layer of air near the surface. A couple strong elevated storms would be possible in that enviornment with hail the threat. The threat for damaging winds and tornadoes is extremely low with elevated storms.

Rain amounts up to 0.75″ will be possible across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. Widespread severe weather is very unlikely but there may be numerous showers and thunderstorms across Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas Friday Evening.

Widespread Rain, Severe Weather, Cold Front and Snow?

Potent Storm System Next Week

It doesn’t take many years of living in Texas to figure out what a mixed bag of weather we’re subjected to throughout the year.  It’s like one of those mystery blind bags you get at parties…it feels like you never know what you’re going to get from week to week.  That’s what we’re going to discuss in this evening’s blog because this weekend and into the early part of next week is shaping up to be very busy with all types of weather expected across the state.  We’ll see widespread rain, a chance for severe weather, a strong cold front and the chance the first snow this season!  To make things easier, I’ll break the blog up into sections and discuss each topic one at a time.

The Rain Chances

Potent Storm System Next Week

Another powerful storm system is expected to drop down across the Rockies and into the southwestern US by early Monday.  Ahead of and in conjunction with this potent system, pacific moisture and increasing lift will be sweeping across the state from the southwest bringing chances of light rain into the state as early as Saturday with more widespread rain expected to develop by Sunday into early Monday.  Rainfall amounts over the weekend are expected to be relatively light, and not everyone will see rain.   The rain will begin early Saturday across the southwestern half of the state and move northeast into parts of central Texas by mid-day.  At least that’s how it looks right now.  As we get into Sunday, the approaching storm system will further aid in generating lift and storms that will further tap into the pacific moisture already in place.  At the same time, a surface high will be moving east away from the state which will kick surface winds around from the south to draw additional moisture up from the gulf.  This will generate much more widespread rain from west to east across the state through Sunday into early Monday.

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The Severe Weather Outlook

While the threat for severe weather looks to be pretty much nonexistent over the weekend, by Monday, we’ll be looking at a chance for strong to severe storms across parts of west central, central and eastern Texas during the afternoon and evenings.  Tuesday, we may see that threat continue into the far eastern/southeastern region of the state dependent upon how fast the system moves and what impact a dryline will have as it sets up across west central Texas just ahead of the next cold front.  As always, a lot will depend on timing of the system and how much instability is expected to be in place as the best forcing for lift arrives with the upper level system.  Right now, the long-range models are showing sufficient instability will be in place by Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday to issue a preliminary outlook.  This is in no way a guarantee that we’ll see severe weather…especially when looking at a forecast that is still quite a number of days out.  We look at these SPC outlooks as more of a heads-up that conditions will likely have the capability to produce strong storms and we’ll need to keep an eye on this in the days to come. Regardless of whether or not the severe weather materialized, heavy rain will be likely and flooding may return as an issue again across central and eastern Texas.

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The Cold Front and…Snow???

Along with the possible threat of severe weather Monday and Tuesday, we’ll have additional widespread rain chances and a strong cold front sweeping in as the upper level system moves over us.  A surface low looks to setup over northern Oklahoma which may act to draw moisture from the rain out ahead up and over and around into the panhandle region by early Tuesday.  With temperatures expected to be at or near freezing by that time, it’s possible you folks will see your first snow of the season!  With temps so warm in the days ahead, the ground will still be much too warm to see much accumulation with any snow that does manage to develop.  Again, still too far out to be certain about snow…and because we know you’ll ask…there will NOT be any threat of snow for the Dallas/Ft. Worth area…but we’ll be monitoring this and everything else over the weekend, so be sure to check back each day!

Cold front sweeps thru early Tues

Panhandle snow Tues - Wed