Tornado Watch for North-Central Texas until 10 PM CT
- Friday, 29 April 2016 13:13
- Written by David Reimer
A tornado watch has been issued for North and portions of Central Texas until 10 PM. This watch includes Sherman, D/FW, Stephenville, and Waco. Storms are already firing up across the watch area due to a very weak cap. Unlike most days where we have to wait for the dryline storms today could fire up on old outflow boundaries or randomly where the cap breaks. The strongest storms could become severe with a threat of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN MULTIPLE BANDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL TX. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS. STORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF DALLAS TEXAS
TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
Numerous Severe Storms with Tornadoes Possible Today!
- Friday, 29 April 2016 12:36
- Written by David Reimer
A complex forecast continues today but confidence is increasing we may be dealing with a severe weather event in the making. The atmosphere along and east of Highway 281 has become very unstable. A low pressure area near Snyder, TX has allowed low-level wind shear to become impressive across much of the eastern half of Texas. We already have storms beginning to develop in East Texas due to a weak cap – which is in the process of collasping completely. With a weak cap and ascent across most of North, Central, and East Texas we could see storms fire up after 1-2 PM in pretty much anywhere. While the dryline will potentially fire up supercells in Northwest Texas and western North Texas today the warm-sector well east of the dryline could fire up storms nearly anywhere. For this reason we can’t specifically tell you when storms will impact your area. This won’t be a line or complex of storms moving from one location to another. We could be dealing with supercells in Texoma this afternoon while also dealing with supercells in Central and East Texas. I do believe we will see activity start picking up after 2 PM and a tornado watch isn’t far away most likely.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded a category 3 severe weather risk to include all of North Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. All modes of severe weather are possible with storms today – including tornadoes. I emphasis that unlike most of our events in Texas these storms could pop up just about anywhere due to the weak cap today. A category 2 severe weather risk includes South-Central Texas and Southeast Texas. Please don’t base your expectations today from what happened on Tuesday. Have your severe weather safety plan ready to go this afternoon as storms could quickly intensify once they get going. A squall line will likely fire up in Northeast/East/Southeast Texas this evening with a threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Complex Forecast with Severe Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening
- Friday, 29 April 2016 09:01
- Written by David Reimer
A very complex and messy convective evolution is anticipated today due to a weak cap. Shortly before 9 AM we already had strong thunderstorms moving east across the Texas Panhandle. Some of those storms could become severe with a hail risk through the morning hours. By the early to mid afternoon its anticipated that convective development will occur from Northeast Texas into Central Texas. With little to no cap in place these storms could form pretty much anywhere versus off the dryline. Storm coverage could become widespread which would work to keep one storm from becoming too intense. Nevertheless the strongest storms will likely pose a severe weather risk with the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. At the same time a dryline will surge east into western North Texas into western Central Texas by the afternoon hours. With a weak cap its likely thunderstorms will fire up east of the dryline by late afternoon. The strongest storms could be severe with a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Low-level wind shear is actually pretty favorable for rotating storms today but the ‘messy’ storm evolution lowers my confidence in a more significant severe weather threat at this time. If we see any supercells become established that can dominate their local enviornment they could produce baseball size hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Storms will continue into Northeast Texas and East Texas overnight with the potential for one to four inches of rain through Saturday. That could cause some flooding issues since soils are saturated and rivers are still full.
Above is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. They have an enhanced risk (category 3) placed across Texoma into North Texas and Northeast Texas. A category 2 severe weather risk includes the Texas Panhandle, North Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and portions of Southeast Texas. As stated above the forecast today is very complex – also known as uncertain. The enhanced risk has been placed where confidence is at least medium that there will be several severe weather reports today. That is also where the threat for isolated tornadoes is highest due to a warm front that will enhance low-level wind shear. Large hail is likely with the strongest storms today. If we see any dominant supercells take hold than the threat of very large hail up to the size of baseballs will increase. Localized damaging wind gusts are possible. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out – but that threat could locally be enhanced where the warm front sets up along the Red River if we see supercells this afternoon.
Severe Storm Risk Returns Thursday Night through Saturday; Some Heavy Rain Too
- Wednesday, 27 April 2016 14:58
- Written by David Reimer
The remainder of today and much of Thursday will be storm-free. The weather will begin to become more active late tomorrow afternoon in the southeast Texas Panhandle and far Northwest Texas. There is a conditional risk for a few supercells to develop in those two regions after 4 PM tomorrow. Uncertainty remains on the availability of moisture and how unstable the atmosphere will become. We could easily end up with no surface-based storms tomorrow afternoon. Either way the primary show will occur after dark tomorrow night and into the early morning hours Friday. A surface warm front will move north from Central Texas tomorrow night through the Red River over time. As the warm front moves north conditions will become more unstable. We’ll likely see elevated thunderstorms fire up late tomorrow night in portions of Northwest Texas and North Texas. The strongest storms will likely produce hail up to the size of ping-pong balls and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Since storms will be elevated above the ‘cap’ the threat of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts should be very low. It could be stormy morning commute on Friday in North Texas. Tomorrow night won’t be a major severe weather event but will probably be loud.
Depending on what transpires Thursday Night and the morning hours on Friday we could see another round of severe weather Friday afternoon and Friday night. Since we’re still 48+ hours out we’ll just have to wait and see what comes together. If we have widespread rain/clouds persist on Friday the threat of severe weather will be mitigated. If conditions come together as some models are indicating we could have severe weather issues. The Storm Prediction Center has broad brushed a category 2 severe weather risk across Northwest Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, the eastern Big Country, eastern Concho Valley, South-Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. The strongest storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. The magnitude of any tornado threat will become more clear as we get closer and get through Thursday.
The chance of heavy rain will increase Friday, Friday Night, and into Saturday. Some locations in Northeast Texas and East Texas could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain through the weekend. The threat of flash flooding may return for some locations. We’ll also have to refine this risk as we get closer but a dual threat of severe storms and heavy rain could exist.
Flash Flood Outlook for Friday and Friday Night
Late Night Notes on Overnight Storm Potential
- Tuesday, 26 April 2016 22:59
- Written by David Reimer
Its been a long day for us after a long day of chasing and an evening of covering severe weather. The threat for tornadoes has diminished sufficiently that I feel I can head to bed without there being major issues. The squall line now moving into Northeast Texas and Central Texas. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for Northeast Texas, East Texas, Brazos Valley, and Central Texas. More info on the watch can be found here. Since we’ll be offline for the night I’ve put together a few resources for you to follow. The strongest storms with the line tonight could produce wind gusts up to 70 MPH and quarter size hail. Can’t rule out a brief tornado overnight but that threat has really come down.
National Weather Service Website
National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Twitter
National Weather Service in San Antonio/Austin on Twitter
National Weather Service in Houston on Twitter
Interactive Weather Radar