Temperature Forecast through Thanksgiving into the Weekend
Temperatures will be warm through Thursday across most of Texas. A strong cold front begins to push into the Panhandle on Thursday and will quickly move south Thursday Night into Friday. High temperatures on Friday may occur early in the day with much colder temperatures for the afternoon hours. Temperatures behind the cold front will fall into the 30s and 40s with gusty north winds. Wind chill values will be in the 10s/20s on Friday and Saturday. Chilly weather will remain in place through the weekend.
Chance of Precipitation through Thanksgiving into the Weekend
Rain chances will ramp up on Thursday with the potential for heavy rain Thursday Night. There may be a bit of a break/lull on Friday before a second round of heavier precipitation moves in Friday Night into Saturday. There remains plenty of uncertainty and you can expect changes for the forecast as new data helps refine things.
Chance of Precipitation Wednesday
Chance of Precipitation Wednesday Night
Chance of Precipitation Thursday
Chance of Precipitation Thursday Night
Chance of Precipitation Thursday Night
Chance of Precipitation Friday
Chance of Precipitation Friday Night
Chance of Precipitation Saturday
Chance of Precipitation Saturday Night
Severe Weather Outlook
Severe weather is not expected with this system. A few stronger storms may occur across the South Plains and Permian Basin on Thursday with small hail. Otherwise the atmosphere will be too stable to support organized thunderstorms or a severe thunderstorm threat.
A fairly significant flooding threat may develop on Thursday Night, Friday, and Saturday across parts of Texas. The heaviest rains are currently forecast to fall across the Concho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, Central Texas, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. Widespread rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches can be expected. Isolated rain totals up to 8 inches are possible. Once we get above about 3 inches we’ll have to keep an eye on increased flash flooding potential. Most of the regions I mentioned here have experienced at least one good freeze this fall. Vegetation is becoming dormant and thus the ground won’t be able to absorb as much water. Of all the potential issues with this upcoming system I do believe flooding could be the most significant issue by the time all is said and done. Stay tuned as timing and the heaviest rain axis information will likely change as we get additional data over the next few days. Flash flood watches will likely be issued for some areas for this event.
Winter Weather Potential
As temperatures fall to or below freezing we’re expecting a switchover from rain to freezing rain across parts of the Texas Panhandle. Timing aspects and the accumulation potential remains very uncertain. At this time the most likely time for freezing rain seems to be from late Thursday Night through Saturday. Hazardous travel conditions are likely across the Texas Panhandle on Friday as freezing rain creates ice accumulations. Depending on how much freezing rain/ice accumulates there could be isolated power outages and tree damage. We’ll have to keep a close eye on things as a lot of moisture will be in place and this could become a fairly substantial winter weather event. The arctic airmass is shallow in the low-levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures will be above freezing a few thousand feet above the surface. That’s why we’re not expecting much snow Freezing rain and some sleet should be the primary winter weather mode across most of the Panhandle. The atmosphere may become cold enough to support a sleet/snow mix across the northwestern Texas Panhandle on Friday and Saturday. Winter weather is not expected further east in Texas thanks to warm air advection keeping temperatures safely above freezing. This has the potential to become a winter storm in the Texas Panhandle with significant impacts. If you’re planning to travel in the Panhandle on Friday and Saturday be ready to change those plans. A winter storm watch may be required by tomorrow.
Warmer and Nice Today with Active Weather for Thanksgiving into the Weekend
Temperatures are starting off quite chilly this morning across Texas. 6 AM temperature observations have freezing temperatures as far south as San Antonio into the Coastal Plains and just north of Houston. It’s on the chilly side in Deep South Texas with 30s – decently cold for that part of the state. We could see temperatures drop another degree but they’ll start climbing soon enough.
Light southerly winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to warm quite nicely by this afternoon. Northeast Texas will make it into the upper 50s as cooler air from Arkansas helps keep things a tad cooler. Southeast Texas, Central Texas, into the Hill Country and points north will climb into the mid 60s by this afternoon. Essentially all of Texas outside of Northeast Texas will climb into the 60s today with southerly winds of 5 to 15 MPH. Clouds may begin increasing by late afternoon in far Southwest Texas.
Tonight will be 10-15 degrees warmer than this morning across southern sections of Texas as clouds increase and we start to see a return flow of moisture. Temperatures will drop off into the 30s across the Panhandle, South Plains, and in Northeast and East Texas. North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, Southeast Texas, and South-Central Texas will drop into the mid and upper 40s. Compare that to the upper 20s to mid 30s being observed this morning. The Rio Grande Valley and South Texas will drop into the 50s to low 60s tonight – also noticeably warmer thanks to increased cloud cover tonight.
Upcoming rain accumulation forecast (which WILL change)
No hazardous weather is anticipated today or on Tuesday – but we will start to see changes by Wednesday as a storm system approaches from our west. We will have an additional blog later this morning to discuss the active weather expected beginning Thursday and continuing through Sunday. Light rain is expected to increase in coverage by Wednesday Night across parts of Texas. Thursday has the potential to be quite wet across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Northwest Texas, Big Country, into North Texas. The overall severe weather threat will be very low. I can’t rule out an isolated strong storm in the Permian Basin – but cloud cover will greatly limit the atmosphere’s destabilization and any severe weather threat. By Thursday Night into Friday temperatures may cool enough to support a changeover to freezing rain across parts of the Texas Panhandle. Continued winter weather chances could occur on Friday, Saturday, and perhaps even Sunday across parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. At this time temperatures are expected to remain above freezing across the rest of Texas. Record-high moisture levels for late November combined with the possibility of two storm systems Thursday through Sunday may create a flooding issue across the eastern half of Texas. Several inches of rain will be possible in this timeframe. Locations that have received a hard freeze over the past couple of days will have their vegetation going dormant. That means the ground will have slightly less of an ability to soak up water. I’ll have more specific details in the blog later this morning – but Thursday through Saturday has the potential to feature very active weather in parts of Texas. Stay tuned!
Last Nice Weather Day with a Cold Weekend Anticipated
Enjoy your Friday because it will be the last day of warm weather for a while. High temperatures this afternoon will peak in the 80s in the Rio Grande Valley with upper 60s in the Texas Panhandle and Northeast Texas. Everyone in between will likely top out in the 70s. Those temperatures are at or a bit above average for late November – a treat compared to the forecast this weekend.
A strong cold front will begin pushing into the Texas Panhandle around 6 PM this evening. By Midnight it should extend from near Oklahoma City southwest to Altus and Childress west towards Plainview. The cold front should be arriving in the D/FW Metroplex around 5 AM on Saturday – same thing for San Angelo. It’ll continue to quickly move south pushing to the coastline by 3 PM leaving only the Rio Grande Valley in the warm sector. Temperatures north of the cold front will quickly fall into the 40s and 50s with blustery north winds. As the cold front passes a given location winds will become northerly with gusts up to 30-40 MPH. It will not be the most pleasant experience for outdoor events on Saturday. If you’re heading out plan on taking a coat.
There will be a low chance for some sprinkles or light rain tonight across North Texas, Northeast Texas, and Central Texas. Slightly higher rain chances will exist overnight in Southeast Texas. Rain chances really ramp up Saturday morning in Southeast Texas and south along the coast into South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected and most rain will remain light. Localized rain accumulations of a quarter to half an inch will be possible in SOutheast Texas and near the coast. Rain chances will shut off by later afternoon and much cooler air ushers in from the north.
High temperatures on Saturday will generally remain steady state or slowly fall north of the cold front. Temperatures in Southeast Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley will make it up into the 60s and 70s. Temperatures will fall quickly after the cold front arrives in the afternoon hours. The high temperatures shown here may occur in the late morning or early afternoon before falling. That is especially true for Southeast Texas and South Texas – including the I-10 cities.
Sunday morning will bring the first freeze of the fall to much of the Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and possibly Central Texas. Temperatures will be well below freezing in the Texas Panhandle, South Plains/Rolling Plains, Northwest Texas, and Permian Basin. A few of the coldest spots could fall into the upper teens as winds become much lighter and skies clear. 30s to mid 40s are expected across Southeast Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley.
Temperatures will rebound slightly on Sunday but it will still be a chilly day across all of Texas. Gone are the 60s and 70s. They’ll be replaced with upper 40s to upper 50s. The coldest spot looks to be in North and Northeast Texas where temperatures will struggle to hit 50 degrees on Sunday. Winds will be much more manageable than on Saturday so the day itself should be a tad nicer.
Thanksgiving itself has the potential to feature fairly warm temperatures with rain chances. A powerful cold front looks to push in on Thanksgiving Night or Black Friday with continued rain chances. The Friday-Sunday period next week has the potential to feature an interesting setup so we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Expect forecast adjustments as we get closer.
Winter-like Temperatures This Weekend thanks to Strong Cold Front
A strong cold front will push south through Texas beginning tomorrow and continuing into early Saturday. Winds behind the front will become gusty out of the north. Thanks to an established snowpack to our north/northwest the airmass won’t have as much time to moderate. We’re in for the coldest days so far this fall. We’re not talking about brutally cold arctic air but its going to be cold regardless. High temperatures this weekend across Texas will remain in the 40s to low/mid 50s. Low temperatures by Sunday morning will be quite cold across the state. Temperatures will drop into the low and mid 20s across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains/Rolling Plains. Mid to upper 20s are expected across the Permain Basin, Concho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, and western North Texas. Low 30s are expected across the remainder of North Texas, Northeast Texas, and the Hill Country into Central Texas. Upper 30s to low 40s are forecast for Southeast Texas and South-Central Texas. Even in the Rio Grande Valley temperatures will drop into the 40s by Sunday morning. Obviously several areas will experience their first freeze of the fall. Be sure to protect those plants if you still have them outside. We are not expecting any winter weather precipitation with this system – although I may not be able to say the same in about ten days ;).
Most of Texas will remain dry with this system. However there is a chance of rain across Southeast Texas into Deep South Texas. We’ll refine the rain forecast tomorrow and have that in your daily Texas Weather Roundup blog. Have a good night and be sure to check out our 2016 weather calendar – just click on the store link up top!
Squall Line Becoming Better Organized as it Moves Closer to Interstate 35
The leading edge of a strong to severe line of thunderstorms extends from Wichita Falls south to Olney, Breckenridge, Coleman, to Sonora. This line of storms is now several hundred miles long extending from Kansas south into Southwest Texas. The overall line is moving east at about 30 to 40 MPH. Individual cells in the line are moving more northeast. The National Weather Service in Fort Worth launched a weather balloon about an hour ago. That launch was to determine how favorable the atmosphere ahead of the squall line is for severe weather. The ‘sounding’ as its called found extremely strong wind shear in place across North and Central Texas. The atmosphere is also fairly unstable with only a weak cap in place. The result is we expect the line to maintain its intensity – if not actually strengthen some – as it approaches Interstate 35. Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 75 MPH will be possible in the most intense portions of the squall line through 5 AM. There is the potential for a few brief tornadoes in more intense line segments but the primary issue will be straightline winds with the squall line. There is some concern that isolated/discrete thunderstorms may develop a bit later this morning in parts of North and Central Texas. With extremely favorable wind shear any organized discrete storm has the potential to become tornadic. Its not guaranteed that isolated cells will fire ahead of the line this morning but its something we’ll keep a close eye on. Current timing projections place the squall line near Interstate 35 from the Red River south through North and Central Texas between 3 and 4 AM CT. Stay weather aware this morning!
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather model seems to show the ongoing and upcoming situation fairly well. Here is a simulated radar output from that model through the morning hours.