A Warm Tuesday but Pattern Change Possible This Weekend
Tuesday, 29 September 2015 06:48
For the third day we’re feeling the impacts of a low pressure located across Southeast Texas. It’s on the way out and will be gone tonight. A high pressure aloft is located across the Southwest United States with a weak northerly flow aloft over Texas. Above average temperatures will continue for the remainder of the week under this pattern. Changes could be on the way by the weekend into next week though.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast today across Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and Northeast Texas. Far Southeast Texas will have the best chance of rain today with a 50/50 chance for Beaumont. A 30 percent chance of rain exist across the Houston Metro, College Station, Lufkin, Shreveport, and Texarkana. Rain chances diminish to 20 percent further west in areas like Tyler and Victoria. Those who end up under a shower may receive a tenth to a quarter inch of inch rain today. By tonight rain chances will diminish with a 10 to 20 percent chance of a rouge shower across East and Southeast Texas. A rouge storm is also possible this evening and overnight across the far northwest Texas Panhandle.
Temperatures will once again be at or above seasonal averages this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s across the Texas Panhandle, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. Upper 80s to lower 90s are in the forecast for the Permian Basin, Big Country, Concho Valley, Northwest Texas, North Texas, and Central Texas. Low to mid 90s are in the forecast across South-Central Texas, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley.
For tonight we’ll see low temperatures in the 70s in South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and Southeast Texas. Upper 60s are forecast for Central Texas, East Texas, Northeast Texas, and North Texas. Low to mid 60s will be the low point tonight for the Concho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, and the Permian Basin. Upper 50s can be expected across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. The Alpine Mountains will drop to around 50 degrees tonight.
Confidence is low in regards to the forecast later this week and into the weekend. There is the possibility that a fairly impressive cold front could bring fall-like temperatures to locations along and north of Interstate 20 for the end of the week into the weekend. Precipitation would also be possible. The issue is that weather models are in very poor agreement regarding the overall pattern setup. With that said there will likely be forecast adjustments as the forecast becomes more clear.
Back to the Usual Summer Weather Programming…
Thursday, 13 August 2015 06:53
Its a good day to be a meteorologist in Texas with an easy forecast for your Thursday. Skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy today and tonight. Isolated showers are possible in South and Southeast Texas this afternoon but a vast majority won’t see any rain. Temperatures will range from the mid 90s in the Texas Panhandle and Northeast Texas into the upper 90s to lower 100s (100-103°F) across the Hill Country, Central Texas, South Texas, and the Permian Basin. Heat index values won’t be nearly as oppressive today with HIs of 2-3 degrees above the actual temperatures expected. Tonight will feature seasonal temperatures along with partly cloudy skies across Texas. It’ll be another good night to keep an eye out for the Perseid Meteor Shower.
High Temperature Forecast for Thursday (Today)
Low Temperature Forecast for Thursday Night/Friday Morning (Tonight)
Chance of rain this afternoon and early evening.
June 21, 2015 Texas Weather Roundup
Sunday, 21 June 2015 06:16
Good Sunday Morning! I hope y’all are getting ready to enjoy another wonderful June day in Texas. Here is your Texas Weather Roundup for the day!
Light rain is moving across Northeast Texas this Sunday morning. A few pockets of heavier rain along with thunderstorms are embedded within the lighter rain. We’ll see mostly cloudy skies persist across South and Southeast Texas most of the day as we see another round of popup showers and storms by this afternoon. Like Saturday we should see a 30-50 percent coverage across North Texas, Central Texas, South Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. It won’t be a washout by any means for everyone nor will it rain all day. The main threat today will be cloud to ground lightning – especially hazardous to those outdoors.
Thanks in part to the clouds and popup storms we’ll see slightly cooler temperatures in most of Texas today. Even in areas that will be sunny we should see slightly cooler temperatures as well. Winds will be stronger today out of the south/southeast with gusts up to 25-30 MPH. Heat index temperatures will be 3 to 6 degrees higher than the actual air temperature. While pockets of light rain may persist tonight we should see the afternoon thunderstorms die down after sunset. Relatively strong south/southeast winds will continue tonight.
Timeline for Impacts from Bill across North and Central Texas
Tuesday, 16 June 2015 19:39
General forecast timeline and path of Bill. Remember the heaviest rains and tornado threat will be along and east of the track. Don’t focus on that line since impacts will occur well away from the center.
* We are aware that some cable networks and other entities have been creating a ridiculous amount of hype about this storm. We don’t do that and if you look back over our posts you’ll see that. However this is a serious situation. Not everyone will see heavy rain or flooding – but we certainly do have the potential for localized high-end/catastrophic flooding along with more widespread flooding.
* Rain intensity will increase across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley tonight resulting in a widespread flash flooding threat. Serious localized flash flooding is possible.
* More rain should begin moving into the D/FW Metroplex around 3 AM on Wednesday. I emphasis that this event has not begun yet for North Texas and will be a Wednesday-Wednesday Night event for North Texas We still expect 3 to 6 inches widespread rain accumulations along and just east of Bill’s track through Thursday morning. Localized rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are also expected which will cause a more serious flooding event. Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security just yet. It won’t be raining all the time everywhere.
* Bill slowed down earlier today and that’s why things have been relatively quiet so far. That will change tonight as the low pressure area becomes a bit more organized and we see rain intensity increase.
* The threat for flooding and heavy rain across portions of North Texas, Central Texas, East Texas, and Southwest Texas has not ended. Frankly we haven’t even gotten underway yet.
* Spinup tornadoes will be possible just east of the center of Bill overnight across East Texas. These tornadoes will likely be small, weak, and brief. However their nature means very little warning may occur.
* Extremely high moisture content is in the atmosphere. That’s how we’ll get very heavy rain rates tonight and on Wednesday. We may not see much lightning but rain rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour are probable in spots.
Monday Night Update on Bill and the latest forecast for Texas Impacts
Monday, 15 June 2015 22:45
In order to keep this short with good information I’ll be using a bullet-point system to share updates.
Regardless of this system now being a Tropical Storm the threat for heavy rain and flooding remains the top concern. That aspect of the forecast has not changed.
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect from about Corpus Christi northeast through Galveston Island onto the Bolivar Peninsula. Winds of 35-65 MPH will be possible on Tuesday resulting in some power line and tree damage.
Tropical Storm Warnings extend inland to Interstate 10 from near Luling east through the Houston Metropolitan Area. Winds of 35 to 55 MPH will be possible resulting in isolated power outages and isolated tree damage.
Landfall of Bill is expected between 7 AM and 10 AM on Tuesday. From there the system will move northwest into Central Texas on Tuesday Night and into North Texas on Wednesday. The system should weaken below tropical storm strength by this point with extremely heavy rain a big concern. As always the track of the system will greatly determine who ends up with the biggest rain totals. Any west/east shift will result in that forecast changing.
Overall rain accumulations along and east of the center will be 2 to 6 inches. Isolated rain totals of 8 to even 12 inches will be possible. Hourly rain rates under the heaviest storms/rain could approach or even exceed 4 inches per hour as the system moves north through Wednesday. This will result in a dangerous flash flooding threat.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible in the eastern semicircle of the storm on Tuesday and Wednesday including portions of Southeast Texas, East Texas, Central Texas, and even parts of North Texas.
Remember not to focus on the centerline of where the storm will pass. Impacts will extend out at least hundred miles to the east and perhaps even to the west. Wobbles in the track will result in forecast adjustments.
Flash Flood Watches are in effect for South-Central Texas, Southeast Texas, East Texas, Northeast Texas, North Texas, and Central Texas and into the eastern half of Oklahoma.