Overnight, a large squall line of strong to severe storms developed across the panhandle and western TX which has moved east into the eastern panhandle and down into western north Texas overnight. While the overall tornado threat is very low, a few spin-ups are possible along the leading edge of the squall line as it advances east this morning across the eastern Permian Basin and Big Country. Regardless of any low chances for tornado development, the greatest threat through the morning hours will be gusty winds in excess of 50mph along the leading edge of the squall line, and very intense rainfall just behind it. Flash flooding is a distinct possibility, especially for areas that are typically flood prone to begin with. We’ll have additional updates out later this morning with today’s forecast! Stay safe and remember…do not drive across flooded roadways!
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 100 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...BROKEN SSW-NNE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED EXPECTED TO EDGE
SLOWLY E ACROSS W TX THROUGH SUNRISE. WITH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
AND ASCENT EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND WITH LOW-LVL SELY WINDS
ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR TO REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/SMALL BOW ECHOES WITH A RISK
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
FORT STOCKTON TEXAS TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PLAINVIEW TEXAS.
Monday’s Weather Roundup – Somewhat unsettled weather pattern through Thursday
Good morning and happy Monday! Temps will start creeping back up to seasonal norms this week, and we’ll have rain chances over various parts of the state through the early part of the week thanks to a low pressure system in the gulf plus mid/upper level moisture streaming in from the remnants of Hurricane Odile. Major flooding is possible across the southern half of the desert southwest mid-week, and far western Texas will see some of that as well by Tuesday-Wednesday.
For today, rain chances will be highest across north central, central and southwest Texas this morning as a weak little disturbance moves east across northern Texas. Later this afternoon, showers along the coast will be possible, as well as across parts of the panhandle and western north Texas as a weak cool front drops south into the area. Overnight, we expect to see rain chances pick up across far western Texas as moisture from dissipating Odile increases.
Highs today, pleasant and still a few degrees below seasonal norms thanks in part to the fairly extensive cloud cover expected over most of the state today. But, as mentioned above, temps will be slowly climbing back up into the realms of normal for this time of year as we head through the week. By end of week, we’ll be looking at a return of primarily warm and rather muggy conditions.
Update on Hurricane Odile…she made landfall near Cabo San Lucas around 04:45 UTC (11:45pm CDT) with winds estimated at roughly 127mph according to the National Hurricane Center. This ties Odile with Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane (on record) to make landfall in the state of Baja California Sur.
Lots of rain for folks in and around Goldthwaite, San Saba, Llano and Kingsland this evening! A couple of counties in this region were severe warned earlier, but looks like things are beginning to calm down a bit. Small Stream Flood Advisories have been posted for waterways in Llano and Burnet counties until 8:30pm CDT. Runoff from this afternoon’s rain is expected to impact area creeks and low water crossings through the evening with an additional 1 to 2 inches of additional rain possible over the next couple of hours. After sunset, the storms are expected to diminish with loss of daytime heating. Some showers may continue through the overnight hours, but continuous heavy rain is not expected overnight.
Now our attention turns to the Texas panhandle where strong to severe storms are developing and moving south out of the northern TX/OK panhandle towards the Amarillo area. Only one of these storm cells passing through Dalhart is currently Severe Warned, with quarter size hail and damaging 60mph winds. This Warning for Dallam and Hartley counties is in effect until 6:00pm CDT. Folks in this region will want to continue to stay alert for the possibility of additional severe weather as these storms are expected to continue into the overnight hours…mainly to the west of Amarillo along the TX/NM border. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few could continue to be strong producing hail up to quarter size, damaging winds and frequent lightning. For areas south of Amarillo towards Lubbock, most of these cells are expected to remain below severe limits and bring mainly rain and some gusty winds to the region.
Storms that impacted parts of the panhandle and northern Texas this morning have left the atmosphere a little worked over making it a bit more uncertain as to the exact evolution of storm probabilities this afternoon. Most of the high-resolution forecast models have not been very helpful either with very large differences in solutions for this afternoon and evening. Forecasters across the state are having to rely on hourly analysis of their local conditions and pure gut instinct as to what will happen this afternoon and into the evening. So, with that said, here’s the best guess we have at this time. To start…the Storm Prediction Center has placed a rather large portion of northern and central Texas under a risk for some severe weather today. The overall risk area outlined in yellow on the first map image below, covers quite a large area of the state. The radar image is current as of 1:00PM CDT and shows an area of increasing showers across west central Texas in the wake of previous storms across this area. We expect development to continue this afternoon and trek east along the I-20 corridor.
The highest risk of severe storms today will reside in eastern New Mexico and into the panhandle. This is where the greatest threat for damaging winds and large hail will exist today as outlined in black and red on the map graphic below. Again, the radar data is as of 1:00pm CDT. Once again, storms are expected to form across eastern New Mexico today and move east and into the western panhandle by early evening…similar to yesterday. Winds in excess of 60mph and hail greater than 2 inches is likely within any of the stronger cells that develop. Definitely keep a weather eye out this afternoon if you live or are traveling through this region.
The tornado risk overall is very low, but is more likely across eastern New Mexico and parts of the western panhandle as we get into the evening hours. Again, this is a very similar setup as yesterday with brief tornadic spin-ups reported mainly across far eastern New Mexico before sunset, with a few reported after dark across parts of the panhandle.
We will be keeping an eye out on the storm situation this afternoon and evening and will keep you updated as it develops. Still not 100% certain of any major developments, especially across parts of northern and central Texas in the wake of earlier storms, but the conditions are still somewhat favorable, so continue to stay alert!