Posts Tagged ‘Bermuda’

Good Evening,

Like I did with Hurricane Bonnie and Colin I plan on starting up the usual discussions again since this storm should become the strongest one we have had so far this year in the Atlantic Basin. I chose to write this discussion just after the 11 PM advisory was released because they have the best handle on what’s currently ongoing. First, let me say I try to keep these discussions in terms that those not interested in weather can understand, but also advanced enough to help explain what is actually on-going.

Lets dive into it! The radar image above was taken at 9:15 PM CDT. The center of circulation, or eye, is obviously visible and is still moving west at about 15 MPH. The system has been organizing all day at a steady pace and just became a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 85 Knots/100 MPH and a pressure of 971. At the time of this writing recon was about to make another pass through the center, but the pressure has been dropping about 1 MB every hour. So this is not a rapid intensification, but the system is strengthening.

The infrared image is from 8:45 PM. While the eye is clearly visible on radar imagery, it is not yet seen on the infrared imagery. An Air Force C-130 currently investigating the storm have reported a 35 mile wide eye with the northwest portion of that eye still developing. The eye size is rather large for this point in the system’s development but that may go on to help it. As the eye shrinks a hurricane strengthens. A good example is that of a ice skater. When the skater wraps their arms in they begin to spin faster and faster. The same applies to a hurricane. Thus the 35 mile wide eye should be able to shrink before a ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) begins. Hurricane Danielle is still throwing some shear down at Earl which has kept it’s intensification rate under control, but conditions are expected to become more favorable for more strengthening by tomorrow.

The above graphic is the forecasted wind speeds for the hurricane through the time period. As shown above the hurricane center is forecasting Earl to become a Category 4 hurricane before weakening toward the end of the period. I would recommend not focusing on the time periods for the wind strength because when Earl organizes its inner core it is likely at least some form of enhanced/rapid intensification will occur causing the pressure to drop dramatically in about a twelve hour time-frame. That could start in three hours, or twenty-three  hours. It should be noted that Earl has become much better organized throughout the day and when the eyewall closes off, which could occur at any time, it could begin to strengthen faster and It should become a Major Hurricane (Winds of 115+ MPH) by the conclusion of Monday, if not sooner. The models make Earl at least a Category 3 hurricane, but it should be noted the intensify is already 85 knots so the time-frame should be moved up.

(Above graphic #1 is 11 PM NHC track; graphic #2 are the 0Z early model tracks) Shown above is the official forecast from the hurricane center and the 0Z guidance from tonight. The models are in tight agreement that Earl should begin to move northwest by tomorrow evening. The important question is when will Earl turn north. Right now both the models and NHC believe Earl will turn north by 73W. The turn is the most important part of this forecast. If the turn happens past 75W then the possibility increases significantly of a direct hit on the US seaboard. However because of a strong ridge in place we know Earl will be deflected to the north/northeast and confidence is high right now it will happen well east of the US mainland, but in case any part of that forecast changes folks should keep an eye on it as it will be a major hurricane during this time-frame. Now saying that, the east coast is going to experience major surf and rip-tide issues. I personally know that some cities along the New Jersey coast experienced very severe beach erosion from this past winter and unfortunately some of their efforts to restore the beaches will be negated by Earl. The biggest thread to the US coast looks to be very powerful rip tides and I’m afraid that this could end up being a news story later in the week. It’s looking likely this will be a fish storm after it’s done affecting the Virgin Islands and P.R.

Stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook pages for the latest on Hurricane Earl and the system that will develop behind it. That storm will be called Fiona and will need to be watched for a potential US impact.

- David Reimer