* A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will impact the Interstate 35 corridor from Georgetown south through Austin, San Marcos, San Antonio, to Divine over the next hour. Wind gusts of 45 to 60 MPH are possible. Flash Flood Warnings are in effect as very heavy rain may fall in a short period of time. Be wary of low water crossings and keep in mind soils are still saturated from recent rains. It will not take much rain to cause new flash flooding. Rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible.
* Squall line should continue to push east of I-35 this morning and may impact the Brazos Valley and portions of Southeast Texas through 5 AM. The severe weather threat should become more marginal east of I-35.
* The eastward progression of the squall line has ceased over the D/FW Metroplex. Storms have weakened and are no longer severe. However they are still producing heavy rain across Johnson and Tarrant counties. Flash Flood Warnings are in effect and some significant flooding is possible with 2 to 4 inches of rain.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 11 PM for portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley, and North-Central Texas. This watch is for locations in close proximity to a southward advancing cold front. The strongest storms through this evening will be capable of producing golfball size hail and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. The tornado threat is very low.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 58 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 535 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE… ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA TEXAS.
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CORYELL EASTLAND ERATH FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM MILLS NAVARRO NOLAN ROBERTSON RUNNELS SOMERVELL TAYLOR
Severe Weather Threats This Week with Multiple Days of Chasing
The spring tornado season will ramp up in a hurry this week. Storm chase operations are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday and possible on Monday and Thursday. For the first time in a few years it appears a multi-day stretch of high-end severe weather will be possible in the Plains. At this time isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in Texas on Wednesday and Thursday but the most widespread/high-impact stuff looks to be north of Texas based on the current data. That could change so I encourage you to check back for forecast updates this week. In terms of our chase plans I’ll discuss them day-by-day.
A strong cap will likely prevent thunderstorms from developing on the dryline. If storms were to develop in western Oklahoma conditions would strongly favor supercells with baseball size hail and a potential tornado threat. There’s a 4 out of 5 chance nothing will break the cap tomorrow so the overall chance of chasing is low but we’ll watch it.
Storm chase operations are expected in northern Oklahoma or southern Kansas. A strong cap will once again make it difficult for storms to develop but we should see a couple fire up in the late afternoon. Conditions will favor organized and severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. Of all the potential chase days this week the tornado threat looks lowest on Tuesday but we’ll still be out.
A high-impact and potentially dangerous severe weather event is possible across Oklahoma and Kansas on Wednesday. Conditions appear to be coming together to support a significant tornado threat with long-lived supercells. Chase operations are guaranteed somewhere in the PLains with the eventual target becoming more clear as we get closer to Wednesday.
Severe weather is probable across portions of Northeast Texas into the Midwest as we continue the multi-day stretch of active severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threat right now but a tornado threat is certainly possible. The most likely zone for severe weather would be in eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri but that could change as we get closer to Thursday. We may be chasing but that’ll depend on how things look and what happens on Wednesday.
Back to the 90s with Isolated Supercell Possible Later Today
Today will be a fairly classic spring day weather wise across Texas. To the west of a dryline strong southwest winds will usher in hot and dry conditions to West Texas, Northwest Texas, into the Big Country and Concho Valley. The 90s are back with San Angelo currently progged to hit 94 degrees this afternoon. I’m certainly not ready to deal with anything that warm just yet. East of the dryline we’ll see 80s with southeast winds and humid conditions. Either way today will feel like Spring across Texas.
Our main focus and potential chase target is just east of the dryline in North Texas this afternoon. Compared to Wednesday the cap will be stronger and we won’t have much to help storms develop. However with the warm temperatures in place I think we may see one or two thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. If a storm is able to break the cap it will likely become quite intense. The atmosphere will be strongly unstable and wind shear will also be quite supportive of supercells. That means while the thunderstorm coverage will be low any storm that goes up will likely be a big hailer. In fact I can’t even rule out an isolated tornado with any storm that fires up. On the other side of the spectrum there’s a chance the cap will hold tough and no storms will fire up at all this afternoon. It’s going to be a case of blue skies or one heck of a thunderstorm this afternoon. I’ll be in North Texas running some errands this afternoon so if a storm manages to break the cap I’ll probably be chasing it with the live stream and all. We’ll have an update on thunderstorm chances this afternoon just before lunch time so be sure to check back for the latest.
Supercell with Damaging Hail in Northwest Tarrant County
The supercell in northwest Tarrant county has turned hard right in the past 20 minutes. The storm is now moving almost due east at 15 MPH and is located near Eagle Mountain. Hail up to the size of tennis-balls has been reported with this storm and the threat for destructive hail continues. Haslet is in the direct line of the hail core over the next 20 minutes with destructive hail likely falling over Highway 287 near Pecan Acres at this time. A wall cloud is also evident based on social media photos but low level rotation remains weak. Hail is the main threat.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 459 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… SOUTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS… SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS… NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT
* AT 458 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PECAN ACRES…OR NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN…MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
HAZARD…TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
IMPACT…PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… FORT WORTH…DENTON…FLOWER MOUND…HALTOM CITY…KELLER… HURST…SOUTHLAKE…WATAUGA…SAGINAW…AZLE…TROPHY CLUB…NORTH RICHLAND HIL…EAGLE MOUNTAIN…BRIAR…NORTH RICHLAND HILLS… ROANOKE…PECAN ACRES…JUSTIN…RENO AND BLUE MOUND.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 76.
THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM…AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.