A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 11 PM for portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley, and North-Central Texas. This watch is for locations in close proximity to a southward advancing cold front. The strongest storms through this evening will be capable of producing golfball size hail and wind gusts up to 70 MPH. The tornado threat is very low.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 58
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN COMANCHE CORYELL
EASTLAND ERATH FALLS
FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
MILLS NAVARRO NOLAN
ROBERTSON RUNNELS SOMERVELL
Severe Weather Threats This Week with Multiple Days of Chasing
Sunday, 05 April 2015 17:24
The spring tornado season will ramp up in a hurry this week. Storm chase operations are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday and possible on Monday and Thursday. For the first time in a few years it appears a multi-day stretch of high-end severe weather will be possible in the Plains. At this time isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in Texas on Wednesday and Thursday but the most widespread/high-impact stuff looks to be north of Texas based on the current data. That could change so I encourage you to check back for forecast updates this week. In terms of our chase plans I’ll discuss them day-by-day.
A strong cap will likely prevent thunderstorms from developing on the dryline. If storms were to develop in western Oklahoma conditions would strongly favor supercells with baseball size hail and a potential tornado threat. There’s a 4 out of 5 chance nothing will break the cap tomorrow so the overall chance of chasing is low but we’ll watch it.
Storm chase operations are expected in northern Oklahoma or southern Kansas. A strong cap will once again make it difficult for storms to develop but we should see a couple fire up in the late afternoon. Conditions will favor organized and severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. Of all the potential chase days this week the tornado threat looks lowest on Tuesday but we’ll still be out.
A high-impact and potentially dangerous severe weather event is possible across Oklahoma and Kansas on Wednesday. Conditions appear to be coming together to support a significant tornado threat with long-lived supercells. Chase operations are guaranteed somewhere in the PLains with the eventual target becoming more clear as we get closer to Wednesday.
Severe weather is probable across portions of Northeast Texas into the Midwest as we continue the multi-day stretch of active severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threat right now but a tornado threat is certainly possible. The most likely zone for severe weather would be in eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Missouri but that could change as we get closer to Thursday. We may be chasing but that’ll depend on how things look and what happens on Wednesday.
Back to the 90s with Isolated Supercell Possible Later Today
Thursday, 02 April 2015 06:41
Today will be a fairly classic spring day weather wise across Texas. To the west of a dryline strong southwest winds will usher in hot and dry conditions to West Texas, Northwest Texas, into the Big Country and Concho Valley. The 90s are back with San Angelo currently progged to hit 94 degrees this afternoon. I’m certainly not ready to deal with anything that warm just yet. East of the dryline we’ll see 80s with southeast winds and humid conditions. Either way today will feel like Spring across Texas.
Our main focus and potential chase target is just east of the dryline in North Texas this afternoon. Compared to Wednesday the cap will be stronger and we won’t have much to help storms develop. However with the warm temperatures in place I think we may see one or two thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. If a storm is able to break the cap it will likely become quite intense. The atmosphere will be strongly unstable and wind shear will also be quite supportive of supercells. That means while the thunderstorm coverage will be low any storm that goes up will likely be a big hailer. In fact I can’t even rule out an isolated tornado with any storm that fires up. On the other side of the spectrum there’s a chance the cap will hold tough and no storms will fire up at all this afternoon. It’s going to be a case of blue skies or one heck of a thunderstorm this afternoon. I’ll be in North Texas running some errands this afternoon so if a storm manages to break the cap I’ll probably be chasing it with the live stream and all. We’ll have an update on thunderstorm chances this afternoon just before lunch time so be sure to check back for the latest.
Supercell with Damaging Hail in Northwest Tarrant County
Wednesday, 01 April 2015 17:04
The supercell in northwest Tarrant county has turned hard right in the past 20 minutes. The storm is now moving almost due east at 15 MPH and is located near Eagle Mountain. Hail up to the size of tennis-balls has been reported with this storm and the threat for destructive hail continues. Haslet is in the direct line of the hail core over the next 20 minutes with destructive hail likely falling over Highway 287 near Pecan Acres at this time. A wall cloud is also evident based on social media photos but low level rotation remains weak. Hail is the main threat.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
459 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…
* UNTIL 545 PM CDT
* AT 458 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PECAN
ACRES…OR NEAR EAGLE MOUNTAIN…MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
HAZARD…TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
IMPACT…PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
FORT WORTH…DENTON…FLOWER MOUND…HALTOM CITY…KELLER…
RICHLAND HIL…EAGLE MOUNTAIN…BRIAR…NORTH RICHLAND HILLS…
ROANOKE…PECAN ACRES…JUSTIN…RENO AND BLUE MOUND.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 76.
THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM…AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
3/24/15 Chase Update #1 (Heading to NE OK)
Tuesday, 24 March 2015 09:55
This will be a quick update since I’m packing up the vehicle. Many indications are pointing towards a rather potent line of supercells developing in extreme northeastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri late this afternoon. An impressive jet-streak along with strong instablity will help these storms rapidly fire up around 4 PM. They’ll quickly move east into the unfavorable hilly terrain in southwest Missouri. In addition strong forcing will tend to make storms form into a line. A low tornado threat will be possible with the initial storms along with very large hail. This is when we’ll be targeting them while they’re in their initial discrete phase. At this time I’m expecting to be near Miami, OK at 3 PM and we’ll reposition from there. I’ll set up the computers and live stream after 1 PM.
At this time it looks like the cap will hold in Texas but we can’t rule out one or two strong storms in Northeast Texas late this afternoon. The main severe weather threat will come on Wednesday in North Texas. See this morning’s update for information on that.