Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com All About Texas Weather Wed, 25 May 2016 13:37:15 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.5.2 http://texasstormchasers.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/cropped-Twister-32x32.png Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com 32 32 8:40am Wednesday Severe Weather Update for Today and Thursday http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/25/wednesday-severe-weather-update-2/ Wed, 25 May 2016 13:37:15 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45051 For most of the state, today will be a “down day” in terms of severe weather with a brief period of high pressure ridging across the eastern half of the state, and being rather “in between” systems across the western half of the state.  The only area of concern will be across southwest Texas this […]

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For most of the state, today will be a “down day” in terms of severe weather with a brief period of high pressure ridging across the eastern half of the state, and being rather “in between” systems across the western half of the state.  The only area of concern will be across southwest Texas this afternoon as storms develop across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande.  The capping inversion is expected to remain strong across most of the state this afternoon east of the dryline, but short-range models are indicating it will be weakest across this region of the state.  Some of these storms approaching this area later today could be severe with large hail and damaging downburst winds possible.  This area remains under a Slight Risk for this afternoon.  Outside of the Slight Risk area, scattered rain and showers are possible, but with a formidable cap in place, severe weather is highly unlikely.  The only caveat to that is a small area west/southwest of the DFW metroplex down around Cisco which short range models have been showing some potential for isolated development this afternoon.  While not highly likely, if we do see some breaks in the clouds and additional surface heating over this area later today, we could see some isolated development with a large hail, lightning and downburst wind threat.  We’ll keep our eyes on it!

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For Thursday, the latest Storm Prediction Center update has removed the area of Enhanced Risk from the state and pulled it further north into Western OK.  The dryline across western Texas is expected to become active again tomorrow afternoon with the risk of scattered severe storm development into the early evening hours.  East of the dryline, increasing tropical moisture overhead will likely lead to the increase in scattered rain during the early part of the day, which ultimately may have some impact on the severe weather chances later in the afternoon.  Those details won’t become apparent until we see how widespread the rainfall is early Thursday and how long it sticks around.  Development along the dryline Thursday afternoon and evening has the potential to develop into a squall line which will move east across the state during the night into early Friday.  If that materializes, we would likely see a threat of damaging winds, so that’s another thing we’ll be keeping an eye on for late Thursday into early Friday.

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7:25pm Severe Weather Update – Wednesday through Thursday http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/24/severe-weather-update/ Wed, 25 May 2016 00:25:05 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45045 Once again this evening, we have activity along the dryline in the Texas panhandle.  Not a widespread coverage of storms…one southeast of Spearman and another cell development just west of Clarendon…but any storm that develops within the next couple of hours along the dryline will have the potential to become strong with very large hail, […]

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Once again this evening, we have activity along the dryline in the Texas panhandle.  Not a widespread coverage of storms…one southeast of Spearman and another cell development just west of Clarendon…but any storm that develops within the next couple of hours along the dryline will have the potential to become strong with very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.  The radar loop below spans 6:40pm through 7:12pm Central Time.

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Tomorrow is expected to be a “down day” for much of the state with only a Marginal Risk of severe weather development across most of the area, and a Slight Risk across far southwest Texas along the Rio Grande. The cap is expected to be strong across much of north and central Texas which will squelch any storm that even thinks about developing.  A few of the models develop a cluster of storms up along the Red River near Wichita Falls tomorrow afternoon and moves them southeast into north central Texas, but the likelihood of them surviving the cap and bringing severe weather to north central Texas is pretty slim.

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Thursday, Scattered rain is expected to move up from the south and southwest across central Texas during the day on Thursday which may somewhat limit the threat of severe weather across the central and eastern regions.  Further west along the dryline, instability will become moderate to high by Thursday afternoon which will likely lead to yet another round of strong to severe storms from western north Texas down into west central Texas by mid-afternoon.  It’s across these regions that the Storm Prediction Center has placed an Enhanced (Level 3) risk of severe storms for Thursday afternoon and evening.  Details on how the early day precipitation further east will affect the late day storm chances out west is unclear and won’t be fully resolved until we see what actually transpires overnight tomorrow into Thursday, so we do expect to see some updates to this Outlook by Thursday morning.  If we are faced with the threat of scattered strong to severe storms on Thursday, all modes of severe weather will once again be possible including very large hail, tornadoes and damaging straight-line winds.  2016-05-24_16-05-34

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4PM Severe Weather Update for Texas Panhandle http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/24/4pm-severe-weather-update/ Tue, 24 May 2016 21:01:59 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45041 A Tornado Watch was issued earlier for the eastern Texas Panhandle. Amarillo, Shamrock, and Canadian are all included in this watch through midnight. We’re now starting to see isolated storm development occur just east of the dryline in the eastern Panhandle. Thunderstorms may tend to organize quickly once they get going. I don’t think we’ll […]

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A Tornado Watch was issued earlier for the eastern Texas Panhandle. Amarillo, Shamrock, and Canadian are all included in this watch through midnight. We’re now starting to see isolated storm development occur just east of the dryline in the eastern Panhandle. Thunderstorms may tend to organize quickly once they get going. I don’t think we’ll see more than a couple of storms for the next few hours. THose storms that do develop could become supercellular with a risk of very large to giant hail, damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and tornadoes. The tornado threat will increase after 6 PM with any sustained supercell and could continue after dark – like the previous two nights. We’re also watching for isolated storm development further southeast off the Caprock and in Northwest Texas. An outflow boundary may spark off one or two storms near the Red River. If storms develop they could quickly become severe with a risk of very large hail and isolated tornadoes. The threat for severe storms will be highest through the eastern Texas Panhandle from 5 PM through midnight. The threat for tornadoes could continue into the late evening. We’re chasing in the Oklahoma Panhandle today where we expect the highest threat for tornadoes – along with southwest Kansas.

You can keep up with storms this evening using our free interactive weather radar at texasstomrchasers.com/live. Live streaming operations are not planned today due to the rural area we’re chasing in as data will be limited.

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Tornadic Supercells Possible in Eastern Tx. Panhandle After 3 PM http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/24/tornadic-supercells-possible-eastern-tx-panhandle-3-pm/ Tue, 24 May 2016 11:27:16 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45038 Like yesterday I’ll give full disclosure that I wrote this post at 2 AM this morning. I won’t be up at 6 AM this morning since I’ve driven 2200 miles in the past 3 days of chasing. Another chase day setting up this afternoon across the northeastern Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, and maybe southwest Kansas. […]

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Like yesterday I’ll give full disclosure that I wrote this post at 2 AM this morning. I won’t be up at 6 AM this morning since I’ve driven 2200 miles in the past 3 days of chasing. Another chase day setting up this afternoon across the northeastern Texas Panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, and maybe southwest Kansas. Time will tell where we end up – but you’re not reading this post for my chase plans for the day. The reason I mention the early post time is because there is a complex of thunderstorms in Southwest Oklahoma again at the time of this writing. This complex of storms may move east/southeast and impact portions of the Red River Valley with a threat of localized damaging winds. Obviously we’ll know what happened with this complex somewhat by the time this post comes out around 6:30 AM. Like Monday the complex of storms could cause a few forecast adjustment for this afternoon related to the dryline and additional storm potential. Don’t be surprised if the severe weather outlook is adjusted later this morning – which we will share in an updated post after 1030AM.

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For West Texas today should actually be a nice break in thunderstorm potential. Unlike Sunday and Monday the cap is expected to be stronger with a lower chance for severe storms. I can’t rule out an isolated severe storm this afternoon but the chances are lower than what we’ve dealt with the past two days. Our focus will be on the northeast Texas Panhandle and eastrn Texas Panhandle this afternoon. The dryline will set up shop across the eastern Panhandle once again today. Storms may fire up as soon as 2 PM – but are more likely after 4 PM. Like the past two days the initial storms could become supercellular quickly with a threat of hail larger than the size of a baseball, damaging wind gusts, and the threat for a couple tornadoes. The low-level wind fields will be more impressive today – leading to a somewhat higher threat for a couple of tornadoes in the afternoon hours. We have dealt with tornadoes the past two days in the Panhandle and West Texas – but they mostly occurred after 6-7 PM as the low-level jet ramped up. This afternoon we expect the low-level jet to be in place by 4-5 PM – thus we may see a few tornadoes develop a bit earlier today. The threat for a couple tornadoes is conditional on having intense supercells – which is not a guarantee. Outflow boundaries, residual cloud cover, and any morning storms will help either make or break storm chances today. Northwest Oklahoma and Southwest Kansas are also under the gun this afternoon and evening. A complex of storms may once again develop late tonight and move into Western Oklahoma.

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6:50pm Severe Weather Update http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/23/650pm-severe-weather-update/ Mon, 23 May 2016 23:48:17 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45034 Scattered strong to severe storms have been pulsing up and down along and east of the dryline across western Texas this afternoon.  So far, we’re not seeing nearly the level of severe weather that some of these areas experienced yesterday evening, but we do have a few severe storms that have developed across the rolling […]

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Scattered strong to severe storms have been pulsing up and down along and east of the dryline across western Texas this afternoon.  So far, we’re not seeing nearly the level of severe weather that some of these areas experienced yesterday evening, but we do have a few severe storms that have developed across the rolling plains of western north Texas north of Floydada, along and near I-20 down towards Big Springs, and south of I-10 near Sanderson…all of which carry the threat of large hail.   Support from the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere has been less than what it was yesterday, with the best forcing well north of the state and just glancing the northern panhandle at this time.  However, instability levels remain moderate to high across the areas east of the dryline and this will continue to support the potential development of additional strong to severe storms for several more hours…especially in areas with pockets of higher instability, moisture and some influence from outflow boundaries kicked off by other nearby storms.  All modes of severe weather remain likely within any additional storms including large hail, damaging wind gusts and a possible tornado or two.  Tornado WATCHES remain in effect until 10pm for the regions outlined on the coverage maps below.

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Severe Weather Forecast Update for This Afternoon and Evening http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/23/severe-weather-forecast-update-afternoon-evening/ Mon, 23 May 2016 15:34:35 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45026 The complex of thunderstorms that moved across the Red River Valley and North Texas this morning have created a few forecast changes for today. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a category 3 enhanced severe weather risk for Northwest Texas, eastern Permian Basin,  the Big Country, and the Concho Valley. A category 2 standard severe […]

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The complex of thunderstorms that moved across the Red River Valley and North Texas this morning have created a few forecast changes for today. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a category 3 enhanced severe weather risk for Northwest Texas, eastern Permian Basin,  the Big Country, and the Concho Valley. A category 2 standard severe weather risk includes western North Texas, the eastern Texas Panhandle, and western sections of the Hill Country. The main change compared to the forecast posted earlier this morning is that some of the severe weather probabilities have been shifted east/south out of the Texas Panhandle. I want to emphasis that we are still dealing with a dynamic situation with outflow boundaries galore produced by yesterday’s storms. There will still likely be some adjustments to the overall severe weather risk zone for today. That said I think the current severe weather outlook is a good one and highlights where the highest concentration of severe thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and this evening. The strongest storms will be supercellular in nature with a risk of very large hail larger than the size of baseballs, damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH, and a couple tornadoes. The tornado threat will be highest with storms that are rooted on outflow boundaries and are intense supercells.

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The first storms could start to pop up as soon as 2 PM – although I would say the more likely timeframe for scattered storm development will be in the 3-4PM timeframe. Storms could become severe quickly with the previously mentioned hazards. Storms will make progress to the east late this afternoon through the early evening hours. The highest number of severe storms (a couple – not many) will be in the category 3 risk zone. As storms move east early this evening we may see another complex of severe storms develop near the Red River into the Big Country. If this complex develops it would have the potential to produce significant straight-line winds of 70-80 MPH and move into Northwest Texas and the Big Country. Like this morning the storms may make it into North Texas late tonight but in a weakened state. We’ll have an updated severe weather outlook out in about an hour and we’ll post updates as necessary today.

14Z HRRR - Computer generated weather model radar at 3 PM. 14Z HRRR - Computer generated weather model radar at 6 PM. 14Z HRRR - Computer generated weather model radar at 9 PM.

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Another Round of Supercells After 2 PM Today http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/23/another-round-supercells-2-pm-today/ Mon, 23 May 2016 11:26:09 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45023 I’ll be completely upfront when I say I wrote this at 2 AM. I say that because at the time of this writing we have a complex of thunderstorms moving into Northwest Texas near Vernon and along the Red River Valley. This complex of storms could play a role in storm development later today in […]

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I’ll be completely upfront when I say I wrote this at 2 AM. I say that because at the time of this writing we have a complex of thunderstorms moving into Northwest Texas near Vernon and along the Red River Valley. This complex of storms could play a role in storm development later today in the form of outflow boundaries. If for some reason the complex of storms maintains itself as it pushes into Northwest Texas and North Texas this morning some of the storms could contain gusty winds. Yet another busy afternoon and evening is expected east of the dryline as supercells develop by mid-afternoon and continue into the early evening hours. Those supercells may congeal into a cluster/line, like this past night, and push east with a threat of wind damage.

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The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather – a category 3 out of 5 risk – for the eastern Texas Panhandle, West-Central Texas, western sections of the Big Country and western Concho Valley. A category 2 severe weather risk includes the central Texas Panhandle, Rolling Plains, and western North Texas. Like Sunday this afternoon primarily will be a discrete-thunderstorm mode event initially during the first few hours of the event today. The dryline should set up about 50-75 miles east of where it was Sunday – but I caution you that many storms on Sunday formed well east of the dryline. The first storms today may form after 2 PM – and we will likely have a couple severe storms underway by 4 PM in the eastern Texas Panhandle south into West-Central Texas into western sections of the Concho Valley. The atmosphere should be very unstable and wind shear values will support organized supercell thunderstorms. With a supercellular mode and very high instablity values the threat of very large hail will exist. Some hail stones may approach the size of a baseball or even a softball. A couple tornadoes will also be possible – especially with any sustained intense supercell that interacts with an outflow boundary left over from Sunday’s storms. Damaging wind gusts and localized flooding are also threats.

The complex of thunderstorms ongoing earlier this morning in Northwest Texas could cause some changes to the forecast for later today. In addition outflow boundaries and other mesoscale factors may help cause some minor changes. Please check back after 10 AM for an updated forecast that will contain any changes compared to what we have early this morning.

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9:00PM Update – Severe Thunderstorm WATCH for Western North Texas Until 3:00am http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/22/overnight-severe-weather-update/ Mon, 23 May 2016 01:59:25 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45020 An ongoing complex of strong to severe storms across the east and southeastern Texas panhandle, stretching between Canadian down south to around Paducah, is expected to continue to slowly advance east/southeast over the next several hours.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH for parts of western north Texas in effect until 3am. […]

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An ongoing complex of strong to severe storms across the east and southeastern Texas panhandle, stretching between Canadian down south to around Paducah, is expected to continue to slowly advance east/southeast over the next several hours.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH for parts of western north Texas in effect until 3am.  The Texas counties included in this new WATCH: Hardeman, Foard, Wilbarger, Baylor, Wichita, Archer and Clay. Confidence in continued severe weather activity during the nighttime hours is not 100% certain at this time, but some of the short-range models are showing this area of storms developing into a pseudo squall line complex which would travel southeast during the night in the vicinity of the Red River valley of Texas and southwest Oklahoma, and possibly down into north central Texas before daybreak.  Again, confidence is not high regarding the early morning evolution of this across north central Texas, but for western north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, folks in this region will likely be in for a bit of a bumpy ride over the next 4-6 hours with the threat of damaging winds, some hail and prolific lightning.  Make sure when you go to bed tonight that you have a way to receive weather warnings should any be issued for your location!

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Tornado Watch Issued for Texas Panhandle & West TX until 10 PM http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/22/tornado-watch-issued-texas-panhandle-west-tx-10-pm/ Sun, 22 May 2016 19:53:41 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45013 The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service have issued a tornado watch covering the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains. This watch is in effect until 10 PM. We have the first storm of the day firing up near Borger with additional storms near Turkey. This activity will move northeast – but we […]

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The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service have issued a tornado watch covering the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains. This watch is in effect until 10 PM. We have the first storm of the day firing up near Borger with additional storms near Turkey. This activity will move northeast – but we will start to see deviant motion to the east/southeast with intense supercells in the next few hours. The strongest storms could produce very large hail up to the size of a softball, damaging wind gusts to 70 MPH, and a couple tornadoes. The highest tornado threat will be with dominant right-moving supercells between 5 PM and 9 PM this evening. As a reminder we are chasing in the Panhandle and will be streaming live video soon here.

 

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TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   250 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     SOUTHWEST KANSAS
     OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
     WEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
       EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  VERY
   LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
   LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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Panhandle & West Texas Upgraded to Category 3 Severe Risk http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/22/panhandle-west-texas-upgraded-category-3-severe-risk/ Sun, 22 May 2016 17:33:39 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=45010 The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains to an enhanced risk of severe weather today. That is a category 3 on the 5-level system. Dumas, Amarillo, Pampa, Shamrock, Plainview, Lubbock, Lamesa, Snyder, and Spur are all included in this severe weather risk. The category 2 – […]

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The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Rolling Plains to an enhanced risk of severe weather today. That is a category 3 on the 5-level system. Dumas, Amarillo, Pampa, Shamrock, Plainview, Lubbock, Lamesa, Snyder, and Spur are all included in this severe weather risk. The category 2 – standard severe weather risk has not changed much from our update an hour ago and includes the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Permian Basin. Thunderstorm initiation is possible after 2 PM and likely after 4 PM across the western sections of the risk areas. The initial storms this afternoon and evening will likely be supercells with a risk of very large to giant hail. Some parameters are suggesting the strongest storms may produce hail up to the size of softballs. The threat for a couple tornadoes will also exist with the more dominant supercells – especially in the enhanced risk zone. I also cannot rule out isolated storm development further east in the Big Country and Northwest Texas this afternoon – also with a risk of large hail.  sTorms will make slow but steady progress to the east this afternoon. If we have any storms form into a cluster or squall line the threat for widespread damaging winds of 60 to 75 MPH would increase. Storms should slowly weaken as they move east this evening into Northwest Texas, the Big Country, and the Concho Valley. Otherwise the previous forecast issued an hour ago remains valid. You can read it here.

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