Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com All About Texas Weather Fri, 28 Apr 2017 02:32:21 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.4 http://texasstormchasers.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/cropped-Twister-32x32.png Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com 32 32 Isolated Severe Weather Threats for North TX on Friday – More Widespread Severe Weather on Saturday for North, Central and NE TX http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/27/isolated-severe-weather-threats-north-tx-friday-widespread-severe-weather-saturday-north-central-ne-tx/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/27/isolated-severe-weather-threats-north-tx-friday-widespread-severe-weather-saturday-north-central-ne-tx/#respond Fri, 28 Apr 2017 02:32:21 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54532 A conditional threat for isolated severe storms exists tomorrow afternoon across portions of north central Texas.  Conditional in that the strong capping inversion that will be in place across all of north Texas tomorrow must break before storms can initiate.  We’ll have plenty of moisture and instability in place, along with energy from a strong upper […]

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A conditional threat for isolated severe storms exists tomorrow afternoon across portions of north central Texas.  Conditional in that the strong capping inversion that will be in place across all of north Texas tomorrow must break before storms can initiate.  We’ll have plenty of moisture and instability in place, along with energy from a strong upper level low approaching from the west.  The big question is will all the ingredients come together at just the right time to break the cap and allow storms to develop.  Right now, that potential is looking rather low, but not impossible.  Additional data rolling in tonight will likely help make tomorrow’s forecast more clear, but here’s what we know right now.  A cold front will push through the panhandle and northern Oklahoma overnight making it into western north Texas before stalling out.  This frontal boundary will likely lift back to the north on Friday possibly pushing as far north as the I-44 corridor which runs northeast/southwest through Oklahoma.  A dryline will set up across western north Texas and the region south of the stalled front and east of the dryline intersection is where we will see the greatest potential for isolated severe storm development tomorrow evening.  We may get no storms, one storm or perhaps two or three…but anything that does manage to break the cap and develop will have the chance of quickly becoming severe with very large hail, damaging winds and a the threat of a tornado.  As we get into the late evening and overnight hours, the best potential for continued strong to severe storm development will be along and just north of the Red River.

A second, stronger cold front, will begin to move southeast across the panhandle and western Oklahoma overnight Friday into Saturday. Forcing from the front in combination with additional forcing from the upper level low will increase chances for more widespread storm coverage early Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon and evening. By Saturday afternoon, the threat for severe weather will encompass all of north and northeast Texas, and down into central Texas as well, as the cold front continues to advance southeast during the afternoon with a line of storms developing along and ahead of it.  Areas east/southeast of the DFW metroplex will see the best chances for a round of severe weather which includes the possibility of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible, but with the advancing cold front expected to quickly undercut any storms that develop out ahead of it, this may help keep the tornado threat on the low end of the spectrum.  We’ll have an update out early tomorrow morning after the latest data rolls in overnight, so be sure to check back!

In addition to the threat for severe weather Friday and Saturday, we also have a chance for SNOW across a good 2/3rds of the Texas panhandle region Saturday afternoon into Sunday night.  Highest accumulations are expected to be across the far northwest panhandle with just under and inch expected in and around the Amarillo metro area.  Soil and road surface temps will be pretty warm so issues with accumulation on roadways should be minimal; however, impacts to bridges and overpasses may occur during the nighttime and early morning hours.

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Active Severe Weather Pattern Returns for Friday and Saturday http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/26/active-severe-weather-pattern-returns-friday-saturday/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/26/active-severe-weather-pattern-returns-friday-saturday/#respond Thu, 27 Apr 2017 01:06:16 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54519 The threat of severe weather has come to an end across Texas. A cold front will continue to sag south tonight helping to bring a drier airmass in with it. I apologize for the lack of activity here over the last several days. Every once in a while everyone, myself included, needs to step away […]

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The threat of severe weather has come to an end across Texas. A cold front will continue to sag south tonight helping to bring a drier airmass in with it. I apologize for the lack of activity here over the last several days. Every once in a while everyone, myself included, needs to step away and take some personal time. Not only that but we completed a server transfer this morning that will hopefully speed up our website and keep us going during the busier periods. All that said we’re now back in action and looking ahead toward Friday and Saturday.

We’re still two to three days away from our next active period of weather. What I show you tonight will likely change on Thursday and Friday. This is springtime in Texas and we certainly are in an active severe weather pattern. There is no reason to be alarmed or frightened. Just like those in California have to deal with earthquakes, we have to deal with active springtime weather. Our system on Friday and Saturday will probably bring severe weather to portions of North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. How widespread the severe weather becomes and what hazards are included is still up in the air. We’ll tell you what we know and likewise explain what uncertainties we have heading toward the weekend. This blog will focus on the potential for severe weather and an attendant heavy rainfall risk. If we’re not talking about your part of Texas you should probably be happy about that.

Thursday and most of Friday will be dry. The cold front pushing south tonight will stall out somewhere in South Texas and near the Coast on Thursday. By late Thursday that front will start moving north as a warm front. Impressively high moisture values will accompany that warm front as journeys north. A big question is how far north that front will be located by the late afternoon hours on Friday. Some models have the warm front near Interstate 20 in North Texas while others have it near the Red River. Those south of the warm front will experience high humidity values and gusty south winds. Those north of the warm front will be comparatively less humid, although still warm. A dryline will set up shop in the eastern Big Country to western North Texas.

A conditional risk for isolated supercells is expected by late Friday afternoon and early Friday evening in the vicinity of the dryline and warm front in the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and western North Texas. The actual placement of those features will dictate where the conditional severe weather risk eventually is come Friday. The cap won’t be all that strong and the enviornment will be extremely unstable. Wind shear values look to be supportive of organized thunderstorms, although models do disagree on how much low level shear will be available at the onset. The caveat on a more significant/certain severe weather threat is that we won’t really have much in the way of lift in place. Sure, the cap is weak, but that doesn’t do much if we don’t have the lift necessary to develop storms. This will be a day where localized features such as a dryline bulge (where a small part of the dryline surges east), or other factors may play a role in where one or two supercells fire up. It is entirely possible we get through sunset with no storms should a lift source not materialize. Any thunderstorm that does manage to develop will for the lack of a better phrase, blow up like a bomb. It will very quickly become severe with a threat of hail larger than the size of baseballs, localized damaging wind gusts, and the potential of being tornadic. That risk is conditional on there actually being storms in the first place. If we don’t have storms then we can’t very well have severe weather, can we! Regardless this does not seem to be a widespread severe weather threat at the moment. Details will become more clear as we get within 24 hours of late Friday afternoon/evening, so check back for updates to the forecast on Thursday.

Saturday is shaping up to be ‘the day’ where we could be dealing with widespread thunderstorm potential. Being 72+ hours out means there are more questions than not at this stage in terms of the mesoscale (localized) enviornment. The overall setup does seem to favor the possibility of numerous thunderstorms – some being severe. We may have to deal with a squall line that moves from west to east across the risk zones. Specific timing and locations impacted will depend on where features setup. Unlike Friday we will definitely have a strong source of lift with a cold front moving into the affected regions. The highest risk of severe storms currently appears to be from North and Central Texas eastward into Northeast Teas, East Texas, the Brazos Valley, to northern Southeast Texas. As is usual the threat of severe weather will decrease closer to the coast and into South Texas thanks to most of the upper level lift passing to the north. A squall line would have the potential of producing hail up to the size of golfballs, damaging straight-line winds over 70 MPH, and brief tornadoes. Should we see any discrete storms the potential for tornadoes would definitely exsist based off the current forecasted instability/shear combination. Refinements are probable as we get closer to Saturday and the entire picture comes into view. Nevertheless a fairly good chance of storms is expected. You can get Your Local Forecast and rain chances here.

Last but not least is the chance of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected on Saturday-Sunday in Northeast Texas and parts of East Texas. Localized amounts may approach 6 inches. Our neighbors in western and northwestern Arkansas may be dealing with 8-10 inches of rain. Some flooding threat is expected, but like the severe weather potential, will all depend on how everything comes together in the next few days.

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Gorgeous Weekend Ahead! http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/22/gorgeous-weekend-ahead/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/22/gorgeous-weekend-ahead/#respond Sat, 22 Apr 2017 14:48:04 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54486 A cold front is currently approaching south central Texas and should clear the upper coastline by early afternoon and the lower coastline by this evening.  We have a few chances for scattered showers along and ahead of the front today, but nothing like what we saw yesterday evening across north Texas.  Once the front passes, […]

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A cold front is currently approaching south central Texas and should clear the upper coastline by early afternoon and the lower coastline by this evening.  We have a few chances for scattered showers along and ahead of the front today, but nothing like what we saw yesterday evening across north Texas.  Once the front passes, winds will pick up a bit and we’ll see an influx of drier air and cooler temps.  Skies will be cloudy for the first part of the day across much of the state, but we’ll begin to see those clouds scatter out from west to east by the afternoon.

Behind the front, todays’ forecast highs will be much cooler and a good 10 to 15 degrees below average for this time of the year.  It will feel more like early March than late April for many locations.  Ahead of the front, we’ll still see some highs in the 80s to low 90s which is typical for this time of the year. Lows tonight will be quite chilly for late April with lows down into the 30s across the panhandle, 40s across much of north, east, central and western Texas, and 50s and 60s further down along the coast.  Sunday we’ll see highs only in the 70s for a majority of the state with lots of sunshine!  Temps will quickly rebound starting on Monday as the impacts of the front begin to dissipate and we see a return of southerly winds once again.  Looks like we will stay rain free until we get towards the end of next week when we’ll see a return of some rain and possibly storms by Thursday and/or Friday.  We’ll keep an eye on that and post updates as we get further into the week ahead.  Enjoy your weekend!!!

 

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10:10pm Severe Weather Update for North Texas http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/1010pm-severe-weather-update-north-texas/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/1010pm-severe-weather-update-north-texas/#respond Sat, 22 Apr 2017 03:10:22 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54482 Numerous severe storms continue to impact north Texas this evening.  The storms currently across Denton and Collin counties north of the immediate DFW metroplex carry a threat for very large hail up to the size of baseballs.  The cells moving east of the immediate metroplex around Wylie and Greenville will also carry a threat for […]

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Numerous severe storms continue to impact north Texas this evening.  The storms currently across Denton and Collin counties north of the immediate DFW metroplex carry a threat for very large hail up to the size of baseballs.  The cells moving east of the immediate metroplex around Wylie and Greenville will also carry a threat for large hail in addition to a low, but non-zero, threat for a tornado spin up.  This area of storms will continue to move east as the front continues to accelerate across the region tonight and should all be east of the DFW metroplex within the next one to two hours.  As the current grouping of storms continues to move east/southeast away from the DFW metroplex, we should begin to see them congeal into a linear complex which will then approach the Corsicana to Tyler to Mt. Pleasant region with a threat of damaging winds and hail. Current high-resolution forecast models have the line diminishing in intensity after midnight as it heads further into east Texas. The current Tornado WATCH remains in effect until 1am.

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Tornado Watch until 1AM for Texoma, North Texas, and Northeast Texas http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/tornado-watch-1am-texoma-north-texas-northeast-texas/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/tornado-watch-1am-texoma-north-texas-northeast-texas/#respond Fri, 21 Apr 2017 21:50:23 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54477 A tornado watch is now in effect until 1 AM for portions of Texoma, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. This includes Bowie, Mineral Wells, Granbury, D/FW, Sherman, Canton, Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, and Paris. Not all locations in the watch area will be impacted by severe weather this evening. We have our first storms of the […]

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A tornado watch is now in effect until 1 AM for portions of Texoma, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. This includes Bowie, Mineral Wells, Granbury, D/FW, Sherman, Canton, Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, and Paris. Not all locations in the watch area will be impacted by severe weather this evening. We have our first storms of the day going up in the northwestern sections of the watch zone. The strongest storms over the coming hours may produce very large hail up to the size of baseballs, localized damaging wind gusts to around 70 MPH, and even an isolated tornado. Keep in mind all thunderstorms produce deadly lightning. We’re all out chasing and thus updates will be infrequent. Please use the links at the top of the site for useful information.

Tornado Watch Number 155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
western Arkansas
southeast Oklahoma
north centrtal and northeast Texas

* Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 440
PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include…
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY…A few supercells are expected to develop in vicinity of a
cold front and convectively reinforced boundary, and some storms may
evolve into line segments. Large hail, damaging wind and a few
tornadoes will be possible with this activity this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Poteau OK to
45 miles south southeast of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

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Level 3 (Enhanced) Severe Weather Risk Expanded… http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/level-3-enhanced-severe-weather-risk-expanded/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/level-3-enhanced-severe-weather-risk-expanded/#respond Fri, 21 Apr 2017 17:00:24 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54471 We now have an enhanced risk of severe weather across much of North and Northeast Texas. This includes all of the D/FW Metroplex east to Tyler, northeast to Texarkana. A level 2 risk (the standard risk level) runs east of a WIchita Falls To Graham to Stephenville line all the way to Shreveport. These risk […]

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We now have an enhanced risk of severe weather across much of North and Northeast Texas. This includes all of the D/FW Metroplex east to Tyler, northeast to Texarkana. A level 2 risk (the standard risk level) runs east of a WIchita Falls To Graham to Stephenville line all the way to Shreveport. These risk zones simply depict the likelihood of experiencing severe weather near your location. Those in the level 3 risk have a higher severe weather chance than those in the level 2 risk. That said, confidence is increasing that we are going to have severe storms impacting the D/FW Metroplex between 7PM and 10PM this evening. The strongest of those storms may be producing hail larger than the size of a baseball. Damaging wind gusts of 55-70 MPH are also possible. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but the destructive hail threat is the primary concern this evening. The first storms may develop as soon as 4 PM along the Red River or in southern Oklahoma. Those storms would move east/southeast with additional storms developing toward Bowie and Jacksboro. All of that activity will move east/southeast this afternoon and evening. I’ll leave you with a animation of what one model is depicting for activity and timing tonight. Keep in mind this is model data and not meant to be taken literally. Don’t expect a storm right where it shows at the time it shows. Just know that we could be dealing with very large hail problems in North and Northeast Texas by the early evening hours.

Thunderstorms will weaken by late evening across southern sections of North Texas as they get into a more capped enviornment. Expect much cooler temperatures behind the storms as a cold front blasts south tonight and on Saturday. We’ll enjoy some brisk conditions this weekend. Next week has the potential to feature several days of active thunderstorms as a very dynamic pattern sets up aloft. We’re entering the peak of our severe weather season and it looks like Mother Nature intends on showing us that.

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Severe Storms Late Afternoon/Evening in Texoma & North Texas http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/severe-storms-late-afternoonevening-texoma-north-texas/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/severe-storms-late-afternoonevening-texoma-north-texas/#respond Fri, 21 Apr 2017 14:35:59 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54455 We’re expecting a fairly busy weather day across Texoma, Northeast Texas, and portions of North Texas. At this time we have a level 3 risk of severe weather north of a line from Bowie to Denton to Greenville to Clarksville line. A level 2 risk runs along/north from near Vernon to Holliday to Metcalf Gap […]

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We’re expecting a fairly busy weather day across Texoma, Northeast Texas, and portions of North Texas. At this time we have a level 3 risk of severe weather north of a line from Bowie to Denton to Greenville to Clarksville line. A level 2 risk runs along/north from near Vernon to Holliday to Metcalf Gap to Cresson to Waxahachie to Kemp to Big Sandy to Jefferson to Vivian. A level 1 risk runs about another 25 miles west/south of the level 2 risk. These risks are delineated based off the probability of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location.

  • A Level 1 (Marginal) risk is about a 5% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location
  • A Level 2 (Slight/Elevated) risk is about a 15% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location
  • A Level 3 (Enhanced) risk is about a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of your location

Depending on how trends look over the coming hours we may see these risks expanded a bit further south in later updates. Severe weather – in this case – is defined as hail the size of quarters or wind gusts over 58 MPH. Obviously tornadoes would be considered severe, but we use a different probability scale in relation to the risk zones. I won’t complicate this any further by mentioning those, but isolated tornadoes will be possible today, especially in the level 3 risk zone. You can see a closer-up view of your severe weather risk today by visiting Your Local Weather and our Severe Weather Center.

Oklahoma is rocking and rolling this morning with a cluster of severe storms moving into Oklahoma City at the time of this writing. That activity is north of a warm front located across southern Oklahoma. Activity north of that front will have the chance of producing some hail, gusty winds, and flooding. South of the front we have gusty south winds and a humid airmass across Texoma and North Texas. Low-level clouds are in place, but we expect those will tend to burn off by early afternoon. Those southerly winds will continue to pump rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward throughout the day. Wind shear values will be supportive of organized thunderstorms and the atmosphere will certainly be unstable, but a question remains on the strength of the cap and how far south we’ll see organized storms today and tonight.

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is one of the more ambitious models with storms today. By the late afternoon hours it has a few supercells from near Gainesville to Decatur to Mineral Wells in North Texas. Other models aren’t as ambitious with storm development south of the Red River. This is going to be a day where the worst may be along and north of the Red River, or a day where we could see hailers. Obviously we’re going to be watching closely as should you. Any storm that manages to go up will likely become severe rapidly in an enviornment supportive of organized storms. The strongest storms may produce hail larger than the size of baseballs and localized wind gusts over 65 MPH. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but the highest tornado threat looks to be along and north of the Red River with stronger wind shear. The highest threat for destructive hail will be with discrete/semi-discrete supercells. Once storms congeal into a squall line the threat for the destructive hail should diminish, but damaging winds and ping-pong ball size hail would remain possible.

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TX Panhandle – Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until Noon http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/tx-panhandle-severe-thunderstorm-watch-noon/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/21/tx-panhandle-severe-thunderstorm-watch-noon/#respond Fri, 21 Apr 2017 10:15:54 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54450 A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been issued for portions of the Texas panhandle until Noon today.  Strong storms have developed early this morning just north of Amarillo which are expected to move east/southeast across the area this morning.  Large hail up to ping pong ball size will be the primary threats along with damaging winds […]

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A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been issued for portions of the Texas panhandle until Noon today.  Strong storms have developed early this morning just north of Amarillo which are expected to move east/southeast across the area this morning.  Large hail up to ping pong ball size will be the primary threats along with damaging winds and frequent lightning. This area of storms should move out of the panhandle and into western Oklahoma between 10am and noon today.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 153
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   415 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Western and central Oklahoma
     Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

   * Effective this Friday morning from 415 AM until NOON CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Hail potential will increase over the watch area the next
   few hours as scattered thunderstorms continue to develop and
   increase in coverage from the Panhandles into western Oklahoma. 
   Activity should coalesce into a semi-elevated, forward-propagating
   storm complex through mid-morning, sweeping east or east-southeast
   across western/central Oklahoma, with an increasing threat for
   severe gusts as the complex gets better-organized and approaches a
   surface front.

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Severe Thunderstorm WATCH until 5am – Eastern TX Panhandle & Western North Texas http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/20/severe-thunderstorm-watch-5am-eastern-tx-panhandle-western-north-texas/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/20/severe-thunderstorm-watch-5am-eastern-tx-panhandle-western-north-texas/#respond Fri, 21 Apr 2017 03:13:30 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54446 A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been posted for portions of western north Texas and the eastern Texas panhandle until 5am Central Time.  Storms will continue to develop across these regions for the next several hours before moving east into western and southwestern Oklahoma after midnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats…while the […]

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A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been posted for portions of western north Texas and the eastern Texas panhandle until 5am Central Time.  Storms will continue to develop across these regions for the next several hours before moving east into western and southwestern Oklahoma after midnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats…while the threat for tornadoes will remain very low.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 152
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   930 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     western and central Oklahoma
     nortwest Texas

   * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 930 PM
     until 500 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of mainly large hail will develop
   through the evening into the overnight from northwest Texas into
   western and central Oklahoma.

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North TX – Slight to Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather Friday Evening/Overnight http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/20/north-tx-slight-enhanced-risk-severe-weather-friday-eveningovernight/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/04/20/north-tx-slight-enhanced-risk-severe-weather-friday-eveningovernight/#respond Fri, 21 Apr 2017 01:55:19 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=54435 We’re starting off this blog update by emphasizing that a lot of what happens tomorrow with regard to severe weather across north Texas will be highly dependent upon what happens overnight across Oklahoma.  That said…here’s the current thinking on how storms will evolve overnight and tomorrow.  We currently have a frontal boundary stalled diagonally across […]

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We’re starting off this blog update by emphasizing that a lot of what happens tomorrow with regard to severe weather across north Texas will be highly dependent upon what happens overnight across Oklahoma.  That said…here’s the current thinking on how storms will evolve overnight and tomorrow.  We currently have a frontal boundary stalled diagonally across Oklahoma from about Ft. Smith, Arkansas down to around Wichita Falls.  In Texas, the stalled front drapes from about Wichita Falls down to around Big Spring.  Overnight, the portion of the front around Wichita Falls is expected to lift northward towards the I-40 corridor in Oklahoma.  An abundance of storms is expected to develop overnight from the Texas panhandle into southwestern and possibly central Oklahoma as a piece of upper level energy arrives.  This cluster of storms is expected to move eastward across western and central Oklahoma during the nighttime hours carrying a threat of large hail and damaging winds and very heavy rain.  Storms are expected to be ongoing tomorrow morning across central Oklahoma which will likely send outflow boundaries south towards the Red River Valley region by mid-day.  Where this outflow boundary ends up is likely to become the focus for late afternoon and early evening severe storm development on Friday. The airmass to the south of the front and east of a dryline across western north Texas will become moderately unstable.  Any storms that can form within the warm and unstable airmass across north central and northeast Texas tomorrow afternoon will have the threat of becoming severe with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two…although the window of opportunity for tornadoes will be pretty small.  A cold front will begin moving south across Oklahoma by Friday afternoon we’ll see storms quickly fire up into a squall line along the leading edge of the front as it moves south/southeast across the northern half of our state by late tomorrow evening and during the early overnight hours.  Best guess right now at timing of impacts in the immediate DFW area would be 7pm-ish Friday.  With the squall line, damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.  The front will move through fairly quickly on Saturday reaching the coastline by around noon.  Conditions behind the front will be cool and dry for both Saturday and Sunday.  Temperatures overnight on Saturday will be chilly for late April with lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the northern half of the state…so definitely a dry and pleasant weekend ahead!

 

-Current simulated radar between now and 1pm tomorrow-

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