Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com All About Texas Weather Tue, 28 Feb 2017 15:29:50 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.2 http://texasstormchasers.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/cropped-Twister-32x32.png Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com 32 32 Damaging Winds & Extreme Fire Risk Western Parts of Texas Today http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/28/damaging-winds-extreme-fire-risk-western-parts-texas-today/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/28/damaging-winds-extreme-fire-risk-western-parts-texas-today/#respond Tue, 28 Feb 2017 15:29:50 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50737 A strong upper level storm system will bring a variety of significant weather impacts to the western half of Texas today. The foremost of which will be very strong winds. Surface wind gusts over 55 MPH are expected in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, and the Borderland. Some of these wind gusts […]

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A strong upper level storm system will bring a variety of significant weather impacts to the western half of Texas today. The foremost of which will be very strong winds. Surface wind gusts over 55 MPH are expected in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, and the Borderland. Some of these wind gusts will be strong enough to produce wind damage, such as downed power lines. Widespread blowing is a good bet with the possibility of visibility reductions. All of the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling Plains, Trans-Pecos, and Borderland are included in a High Wind Warning. Those within this high wind warning can expect wind gusts of 55 to 65 MPH this afternoon. Those kind of wind gusts could down power-lines, which would be an ignition source for wildfires.

An extremely critical fire weather risk will develop later today across the Trans-Pecos, Permian Basin, West-Central Texas, West Texas, and southeastern half of the Texas Panhandle. This extremely critical zone is where a combination of damaging winds, humidity values below 15 percent, surface temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above average, and dormant winter fuels will occur. Any wildfires that develop could burn several thousand acres (or more) in a period of hours this afternoon. Those within this extremely critical zone should be ready to quickly evacuate if a wildfire approaches. A critical fire zone includes the Concho Valley, Big Country, and Northwest Texas where dangerous wildfires are also possible today.

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Increased Severe Weather Probabilities for North/Northeast TX http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/27/increased-severe-weather-probabilities-northnortheast-tx/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/27/increased-severe-weather-probabilities-northnortheast-tx/#respond Mon, 27 Feb 2017 16:14:33 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50732 The gist of the forecast remains unchanged from our blog posted about an hour ago. The Storm Prediction Center has just added a category 2 risk of severe weather across North and Northeast Texas. This is to account for the threat of large hail from the strongest storms. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out […]

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The gist of the forecast remains unchanged from our blog posted about an hour ago. The Storm Prediction Center has just added a category 2 risk of severe weather across North and Northeast Texas. This is to account for the threat of large hail from the strongest storms. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out if a strong supercell interacts with a surface boundary. Otherwise, no changes are needed to our previous forecast. A severe thunderstorm watch may be issued shortly for some of the aforementioned regions. Read the previous, detailed blog here.

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Isolated Severe Storms Possible Today & Tuesday; High-End Fire Danger in the West http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/27/isolated-severe-storms-possible-today-high-end-fire-danger-west/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/27/isolated-severe-storms-possible-today-high-end-fire-danger-west/#respond Mon, 27 Feb 2017 15:13:07 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50723 Meteorological spring may not officially start until Wednesday, but then again, that hasn’t really mattered this winter. It seems fitting then that instead of discussing the chance of cold, we’ll be chatting about the potential for a few severe thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon, and again on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed […]

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Meteorological spring may not officially start until Wednesday, but then again, that hasn’t really mattered this winter. It seems fitting then that instead of discussing the chance of cold, we’ll be chatting about the potential for a few severe thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon, and again on Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of North Texas, all of Northeast Texas, and East Texas north of a Waco to Nacogdoches line in a marginal risk of severe weather today. This primarily covers the mid-morning hours through the afternoon. As a reminder, a marginal risk is the lowest of five levels with the severe weather risk system. It doesn’t mean the threat of severe weather is low per-say, it indicates that the coverage of any storms should be lower. That’s what we’re expecting today as we may only see one or two storms develop. However, those one or two storms that do develop could be severe with a risk of large, damaging hail and strong winds. The risk of a tornado is very low, but can’t be completely zeroed out.

A warm front is lifting north across Central Texas this morning. This front may become a focus point for isolated storm development later this morning. Let me be clear – the development of thunderstorms is not guaranteed. This is a conditional risk that we’re sharing, since if we do get a storm to develop, it could be a nasty hailer. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is indicative of this potential across southern sections of North Texas. If we have an isolated storm develop it could become severe with plenty of instablity and wind shear in place. That storm would likely be ‘elevated’, or above the cap. That keeps the tornado threat very low, but certainly allows the storm to be severe with a threat of very large hail. We may end up with one, relatively long-tack storm later this morning and early afternoon.

Further west and in a dry airmass we’ll be looking at another day of very high to critical fire danger. We do have a critical fire weather designation in place across the western Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, Rolling Plains, Permian Basin, and Trans-Pecos Basin. This critical zone is defined due to very low relative humidity values, warm surface temperatures, and winds above a certain threshold. Very high fire weather danger is possible eastward into Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, and western sections of North Texas. These fire weather outlooks analyze the potential for significant wildfire behavior should a fire develop. If folks can be careful, we’ll be able to get by without many issues on high-fire danger days.

There will be the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as a dryline moves east. A category 2 risk of severe weather has been issued for Northeast Texas, generally east of a Paris to Sulphur Springs to Tyler to Marshall line. A category 1 risk includes the D/FW Metroplex south to Killeen east through B/CS into Louisiana. At this point it looks like we may be dealing with another day of limited thunderstorm coverage, but any storm that develops could be severe. The highest chance for a couple severe storms will be in the category 2 risk zone in Northeast Texas. Very large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and a low tornado risk are all possible. An enhanced risk, category 3, is in place across Arkansas where a higher tornado threat may develop. Again, at this juncture, it doesn’t look like we’ll be dealing with many storms in Texas today or tomorrow. However, any storms that do fire could be intense.

A more significant fire weather threat is forecast on Tuesday across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, West-Central Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos Basin, and the Borderland. Strong westerly winds, low relative humidity values in the 10 to 20 percent range, and surface temperatures well above average all mean a critical fire weather risk is expected to materialize. We could see extremely critical fire weather conditions develop in parts of West Texas, which may necessitate upgrade in later outlooks. That would be similiar to the risk we saw last week when a 8,000 acre wildfire blew up northwest of Amarillo.

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Marginal Risk (Level 1) of Severe Storms This Evening/Overnight http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/26/marginal-risk-level-1-severe-storms-eveningovernight/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/26/marginal-risk-level-1-severe-storms-eveningovernight/#respond Sun, 26 Feb 2017 15:10:17 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50710 The weather highlight today will be the risk of a few strong to severe storms across parts of north central and northeast Texas later this evening and into the early overnight hours. Moisture and clouds have already begun to stream northwards out of central Texas this morning. As we get into the early afternoon hours, […]

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The weather highlight today will be the risk of a few strong to severe storms across parts of north central and northeast Texas later this evening and into the early overnight hours. Moisture and clouds have already begun to stream northwards out of central Texas this morning. As we get into the early afternoon hours, scattered showers are expected to develop across south central and central Texas, then build northward into the late afternoon and evening hours as a piece of upper level energy arrives. Best chances for strong to severe storms will be in the Marginal Risk area mainly to the east of the I-35 corridor…southeast from a Paris to Killeen line. Marginally severe hail (up to 1 inch) will be the greatest threat along with lightning and gusty winds. Thankfully, the threat of tornadoes is pretty much zero as these storms will be more elevated in nature.

Looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday, additional rounds of storms are expected each afternoon and evening with Tuesday carrying the greatest threat for seeing severe weather. Once again, this will pertain to residents along and east of the I-35 corridor. Monday’s storm potential looks pretty scattered, but any storms that do form have the potential to become strong with a marginally severe hail threat, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Tuesday, as stronger upper level lift arrives, storm coverage is expected to be greater with the best chances across northeast Texas. The most severe weather on Tuesday is expected to remain northeast of our state…across central and northern Arkansas…but we’ll still have the chance for seeing strong storm development along the dryline Tuesday afternoon with the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Timing is still being worked out with regard to the arrival of the best upper level energy on Tuesday, which could make a significant difference in the timing of storms, so it’s likely that we’ll see some updates between now and early Tuesday.

For today…pleasant highs with increasing clouds across south central and central Texas which will stream northward through the afternoon hours. Temperatures today will be fairly seasonal. Lows overnight will be pretty close to seasonal as well. Tomorrow and Tuesday, we heat up again to levels well above normal for this time of the year. Although we still have a few more days left in February, it’s highly likely that we’ll end up with the the winter of 2016-17 (Dec, Jan, Feb) being the warmest on record across much of the state. Before anyone screams global warming, just remember the winter of 2013-14 when we ended up in the 20th coldest (DFW area) and had the most freezes we’d seen in over 30 years. Just goes to show you how variable our seasons can be here in Texas year over year!

Last but not least, we’re not done with the threat of wildfires across western Texas over the next several days. Gusty winds and low humidity values will remain in place over the next several days with winds increasing each afternoon across far western Texas up into the panhandle region through Tuesday. Red Flag Warnings are in place today for the El Paso region. Monday through Tuesday, we’ll likely see that threat extended north into eastern New Mexico and the western Texas panhandle. Last week, we saw one fire break out northeast of Amarillo which ended up burning over 7,000 acres before it was extinguished. Another fire south of Amarillo destroyed 3 homes and a community water well. That fire was sparked while a resident was attempting to cook on a backyard grille. We can’t say it enough, please heed these Red Flag warnings and exercise some common sense by avoiding any activity that could cause a spark or flame.

 

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Cooler Today – Then A Stormy Pattern Sunday Through Tuesday http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/25/cooler-today-stormy-pattern-sunday-tuesday/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/25/cooler-today-stormy-pattern-sunday-tuesday/#respond Sat, 25 Feb 2017 14:16:38 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50696 After the past several days of record breaking highs, we finally cool off…back to just below average, actually…then we begin heating up once again tomorrow.  We’re also looking at a bit of a stormy weather pattern over the next several days as an upper level disturbance approaches along with the seasonal return of our old friend, […]

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After the past several days of record breaking highs, we finally cool off…back to just below average, actually…then we begin heating up once again tomorrow.  We’re also looking at a bit of a stormy weather pattern over the next several days as an upper level disturbance approaches along with the seasonal return of our old friend, the dryline, which will enhance the pooling of moisture to its east.  Today, however, will be rain free and sunny and quite a bit cooler than we’ve seen recently.  Highs across the panhandle and northern Texas will range from the 50s to low 60s for the most part.  Further south, we’ll be a bit warmer, but still pleasant with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.  Looks like we’ll even see a few 80s across deep south Texas and along the Rio Grande, but certainly nicer than the 100s seen just a few days ago.  Lows tonight will be seasonal as well, but we’ll start to see moisture returning in advance of our next system.  This along with increasing cloudiness will help keep lows increasing over the next few days

Sunday afternoon and overnight will feature the chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly east of the DFW metro area. A few strong storms could develop across east/northeast Texas during the late evening and overnight hours, but the threat of widespread severe weather is very low.  Another chance for storms arrives Monday afternoon, then a better chance on Tuesday afternoon.  Damaging wind gusts, some hail, lightning and heavy downpours will likely be the main threats with Monday and Tuesday’s round of storms.  Again, not expecting a threat of widespread severe weather at this time, but since this system is still a few days out, we’ll need to closely monitor for any changes to the forecast.  Be sure to check back with us again on Sunday and Monday as the forecast refines.

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Brief Return to Winter Tonight and Saturday; Spring Storms Possible Monday & Tuesday http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/24/brief-return-winter-tonight-saturday-spring-storms-possible-monday-tuesday/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/24/brief-return-winter-tonight-saturday-spring-storms-possible-monday-tuesday/#respond Fri, 24 Feb 2017 15:26:45 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50685 As of 9 AM a cold front extends into Southwest Texas – Central Texas – into far Northeast Texas. North of this front temperatures have fallen into the 20s across the Texas Panhandle with blustery northwest winds. Wind chills are down into the teens and single digits. Further south and east temperatures are in the […]

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As of 9 AM a cold front extends into Southwest Texas – Central Texas – into far Northeast Texas. North of this front temperatures have fallen into the 20s across the Texas Panhandle with blustery northwest winds. Wind chills are down into the teens and single digits. Further south and east temperatures are in the 40s in the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and North Texas. This front will continue to push south through the day, helping to bring cooler temperatures and northerly winds. Those who are south of the front this morning will experience their high temperatures before the frontal passage. Temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 60s once the front arrives at your location.

Temperatures in the Texas Panhandle will struggle to climb out of the 40s this afternoon as northerly winds continue to pump in the cooler air. As stated above, the high temperature for the day at your location will occur right before the cold front’s arrival. Depending on your location, that could be in the next hour, or it could be late tonight. Either way it’ll be another hot day along the coast, into South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Tonight is when we’re going to see a bit of winter return to more of Texas. Low temperatures will drop into the 30s north of a line extending from the Trans-Pecos Basin into the Hill Country, Central Texas, into Northeast Texas. Teens and twenties are anticipated in the Panhandle and West Texas tonight. 40s are expected into South Texas, the Middle Texas Coast, into Southeast Texas. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will bottom out in the upper 50s to right around 60 by sunrise on Saturday.

Saturday will be the coolest day we’ve seen in at least ten days as high temperatures remain in the 50s north of a line from Andrews to Waco to Longview. The eastern Texas Panhandle and immediate Red River east into Texoma will struggle to get into the 50s tomorrow afternoon with cold air well-entrenched. Highs will be in the 60s as far south as San Antonio to Houston. While those are still warm for the winter months, it certainly beats the 80s and 90s we had yesterday.

Sunday morning will be rather chilly across Texas with lows dropping into the 20s, 30s, and 40s as far south as South-Central and Southeast Texas. As usual South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain warmer with 50s. Enjoy the brief return to cooler temperatures while you can. We’ll warm back up starting Sunday afternoon and we’ll be back well above average by Monday… just in time for the dryline to make its spring-time introduction. Depending on several factors which we can’t yet determine with confidence, we may be dealing with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday across the eastern half of Texas. Some of these storms, depending on how things come together, could be our spring-time dryline severe storms. We’ll keep an eye on it as we head into the weekend, but March 1st does mark the official start of our spring severe weather season in Texas. As Sunday night showed, we can and do have severe weather any month of the year.

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Cold Front Arrives Overnight-Cooler Tomorrow But Wildfire Threats Remain http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/23/cold-front-arrives-overnight-cooler-tomorrow-wildfire-threats-remain/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/23/cold-front-arrives-overnight-cooler-tomorrow-wildfire-threats-remain/#respond Fri, 24 Feb 2017 00:59:22 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50672 Numerous record highs either tied or broken today across the state. DFW reached 88, beating their previous record of 86.  Wichita Falls reached 92 breaking their old record of 85.  Abilene tied their old record of 89.  San Angelo reached 92 breaking their old record of 85.  Brownsville tied their previous record of 92, and Del […]

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Numerous record highs either tied or broken today across the state. DFW reached 88, beating their previous record of 86.  Wichita Falls reached 92 breaking their old record of 85.  Abilene tied their old record of 89.  San Angelo reached 92 breaking their old record of 85.  Brownsville tied their previous record of 92, and Del Rio tied their previous record of 93.  Harlingen reached 96 breaking their previous record of 93. The hottest spots today…McAllen at 101, breaking their previous record of 98…and Laredo reached 100 breaking their previous record of 97.  Definitely not a typical February day by a long shot!  While not quite as warm, many locations across the panhandle region were dealing with numerous wildfires this afternoon…the largest of which appears to be a 2,000 acre fire which erupted earlier this afternoon near Channing, TX, northwest of Amarillo.  No cause has been determined yet for that fire. Evacuations were ordered in a community south of Amarillo when a grille fire reportedly escalated out of control due to the high winds.  The home was a total loss…and I really hope that steak was worth it. Seriously people…use some common sense and heed the high fire danger warnings!

A cold front will move through tonight which will usher in cooler temps for tomorrow and Saturday. As I type this, the front is beginning to enter the northern panhandle region and is expected to reach north central Texas by early tomorrow morning, and central Texas before noon.  The front will make it to the coast, but the cooler air behind it will take another 12 hours or so to really filter down that far south. Unfortunately this frontal passage won’t help fire weather conditions much across the panhandle and western Texas on Friday.  We won’t be seeing any rain with this next front…and we’ll still be dealing with gusty west/northwesterly winds tomorrow and low humidity values both Friday and Saturday which will keep the risk of dangerous wildfires in the forecast for another couple of days.  Rain chances don’t return again until late in the weekend with showers and a few thunderstorms likely by Sunday evening and overnight into early Monday.  

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Dangerous Wildfire Outbreak Possible Today and Record High Temperatures http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/23/dangerous-wildfire-outbreak-possible-today-record-high-temperatures/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/23/dangerous-wildfire-outbreak-possible-today-record-high-temperatures/#respond Thu, 23 Feb 2017 15:10:14 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50656 Record high temperatures are expected across much of Texas this afternoon as temperatures soar into the upper 80s into the lower 100s. Yes, portions of South Texas will make it up into the triple digits today. Laredo is forecast to climb to 102° and McAllen up to 100°. No, we don’t usually see triple digit […]

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Record high temperatures are expected across much of Texas this afternoon as temperatures soar into the upper 80s into the lower 100s. Yes, portions of South Texas will make it up into the triple digits today. Laredo is forecast to climb to 102° and McAllen up to 100°. No, we don’t usually see triple digit heat in February. Also of note, if D/FW makes it up to 90° this afternoon it’ll be the third earliest on record. So, it’ll be hot today. It will be hot for February and it will be pretty hot for a May afternoon as well. Yet the heat isn’t our main concern.

The overall weather pattern is setting up to support a classic Southern Plains wildfire outbreak this afternoon. The combination of a jet-streak aloft, very low humidity values as the surface, and above-average temperatures will all come together to support a high-end fire weather potential. This risk is highest where an extremely critical fire weather risk has been issued. This extremely critical zone includes all of the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma Panhandle, western Oklahoma, West Texas, into northern sections of the Permian Basin. These extremely critical risks are relatively rare and are not issued very often. I realize that folks don’t tend to take fire weather danger as seriously as severe weather or flooding, but this is a serious risk. We’ve seen devastating wildfires develop in similiar weather patterns – the kind of wildfires that can kill. Strong westerly/southwesterly winds will generally have the fires moving rapidly off to the east. Know your escape routes and have a plan in case you need to evacuate your area. A critical fire weather risk includes Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, the Permian Basin, the Trans-Pecos basin, and the Borderland. Dangerous fires are possible in the critical zone as well. Elevated/very high fire danger will extend as far east as Texoma, Northeast Texas, North Texas, Central Texas, and the Hill Country. Winds will be gusty out of the south in those regions this afternoon, which combined with dormant winter grasses, will allow any fires that develop to spread quickly.

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Extreme Fire Danger Thursday – Summer in February – #flamingtumbleweeds http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/22/extreme-fire-danger-thursday-summer-february-flamingtumbleweeds/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/22/extreme-fire-danger-thursday-summer-february-flamingtumbleweeds/#respond Thu, 23 Feb 2017 02:19:13 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50647 Summer in February.  Just let that sink in for a minute.  Highs tomorrow across the state will be likely be historic…even for parts of deep south Texas where some folks will be seeing the thermometer climb above 100 degrees by tomorrow afternoon. The forecast high for Rio Grande City in deep south Texas is 101 […]

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Summer in February.  Just let that sink in for a minute.  Highs tomorrow across the state will be likely be historic…even for parts of deep south Texas where some folks will be seeing the thermometer climb above 100 degrees by tomorrow afternoon. The forecast high for Rio Grande City in deep south Texas is 101 tomorrow. Laredo’s forecast is 99.  Most of the borderland cities will see highs in the upper 90s to low 100’s tomorrow.  That’s not the first time 100s have been seen down there in February, but it’s still pretty darn rare.  For central and north central Texas, highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.  For western north Texas, upper 80s for most, but a few 90s will likely make an appearance.  A cold front will move through late Thursday evening and overnight which will drop temperatures just a bit, but we’ll still remain above average for Friday.  We really won’t cool down much until we get into Saturday when highs get only into the 50s across the panhandle, 60s across much of north and central Texas, with mid 70s for the valley and coastal regions.

In addition to the heat on Thursday, we’ll also be dealing withextreme wildfire conditions, high winds, blowing dust and #flamingtumbleweeds across much of far west Texas, the Texas panhandle and parts of western north Texas as well.  Red Flag Warnings are in place across the entire panhandle, far west Texas, Permian Basin, Trans Pecos region, Big Bend region and western north Texas for tomorrow afternoon.  Winds gusting between 50 and 60mph will be possible across much of the western panhandle. Combine that will very low relative humidity values and plenty of dry winter grass and you have the perfect mix for an outbreak of wildfires which could be sparked by careless burning, cigarette butts tossed out of windows and even downed power lines due to high winds.  If you see a fire tomorrow, call it to local authorities (911) immediately.  With the high winds expected tomorrow afternoon, it won’t take long at all for a small fire to quickly spread and get out of control within a matter of minutes.  Please be safe, everyone!

 

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Nine Tornadoes Confirmed from February 19th Event (Maps & Survey Results) http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/22/six-tornadoes-confirmed-february-19th-event-maps-survey-results/ http://texasstormchasers.com/2017/02/22/six-tornadoes-confirmed-february-19th-event-maps-survey-results/#respond Wed, 22 Feb 2017 18:31:45 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=50604 The National Weather Service in New Braunfels have confirmed six tornadoes impacted portions of South-Central and Central Texas during the late evening hours on February 19th. These tornadoes were not produced by supercellular processes, but by embedded circulations in a squall line. Many times these QLCS tornadoes are very weak and brief, embedded within a […]

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The National Weather Service in New Braunfels have confirmed six tornadoes impacted portions of South-Central and Central Texas during the late evening hours on February 19th. These tornadoes were not produced by supercellular processes, but by embedded circulations in a squall line. Many times these QLCS tornadoes are very weak and brief, embedded within a larger area of damaging straight-line winds. This post will be updated as needed with supplemental information.

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/19/17 TORNADO EVENTS IN BEXAR/COMAL COUNTIES…

.OVERVIEW…STORM SURVEYS WERE CONDUCTED BY NWS METEOROLOGISTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF BEXAR AND COMAL COUNTIES. THESE REPORTS SHOULD STILL BE
CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY STILL BE MADE TO THE
TORNADO PATHS AND STRENGTHS OVER THE COMING DAYS. OTHER DAMAGE SURVEYS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COMING DAYS ACROSS OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.Ridgeview/Alamo Heights Tornado…

Rating: EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind: 120 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 4.6 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 600 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: Unknown

Start Date: Feb 19 2017
Start Time: 1036 PM CST
Start Location: 5 N San Antonio / Bexar County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 29.4907 / -98.4991

End Date: Feb 19 2017
End Time: 1043 PM CST
End Location: 3 NNE Terrell Hills / Bexar County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 29.5154 / -98.4273

Survey Summary: A tornado formed near San Pedro Avenue at the San Pedro
Golf course and moved northeast while strengthening to an EF-1 near
Jackson-Keller Road. As it got to Linda Drive is strengthened and the damage
path was its widest at near 600 yards. The tornado took a bit of a right
turn and moved due east along Linda and Sharon Drives where it had peak winds
of near 120 mph making it an EF-2 Tornado. A few homes in this area had their
roofs completely removed. The tornado crossed Highway 281 near the Alamo
Quary Market shopping center as an EF-1 and continued on and East-Northeast
track through Alamo Heights. Along its path numerous homes had roof damage
and major tree damage with large oak trees snapped and uprooted. The rest
of the track was mainly EF-0 wind speeds but with a few smaller pockets of
EF-1 damage. The tornado crossed near the Nacogdoches/New Braunfels Ave.
intersection, moved east-northeast, crossing Harry Wurzbach and finally
dissipating near the Loop 410/Salado Creek area.

.Northern Hills Tornado…

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind: 105 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 1.5 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 200 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: Unknown

Start Date: Feb 19 2017
Start Time: 1043 PM CST
Start Location: 3 NW of Windcrest / Bexar County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 29.5551 / -98.4117

End Date: Feb 19 2017
End Time: 1046 PM CST
End Location: 5 WNW of Universal City / Bexar County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 29.5697 / -98.3941

Survey Summary: A tornado formed just northeast of Thousand Oaks
Drive along Scarsdale Drive. The tornado moved to the northeast
through a residential neighborhood between FM 2252 and Stahl Road.
The tornado produced widespread EF0 damage and pockets of EF1 damage
to homes and trees. Some single family homes lost sections of their
roofs. There was also significant damage to large utility
structures. The tornado lifted as it crossed Higgins Road.

.Glen Heights Tornado…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 80 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 1.6 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 100 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: Unknown

Start Date: Feb 19 2017
Start Time: 1042 PM CST
Start Location: 5 SW of Universal City / Bexar County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 29.5016 / -98.3601

End Date: Feb 19 2017
End Time: 1045 PM CST
End Location: 3 SW of Universal City / Bexar County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 29.5219 / -98.3469

Survey Summary: A tornado formed near the intersection of Walzem
Road and New World Drive. This tornado produced EF0 damage as it
traveled to the northeast before lifting near the intersection of
Crestway Road and Oconnor Road. There was primarily damage to trees
and minor damage to roofs and carports.

.Schoenthal Ranch Tornado…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 85 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 0.7 miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 100 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: Unknown

Start Date: Feb 19 2017
Start Time: 1100 PM CST
Start Location: 3 NE of Garden Ridge / Comal County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 29.6714 / -98.2650

End Date: Feb 19 2017
End Time: 1102 PM CST
End Location: 4 NE of Garden Ridge / Comal County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 29.6786 / -98.2581

Survey Summary: A tornado initially occurred at the end of Dedeke
Drive near the Dry Comal Creek. This tornado primarily produced
minor tree damage as it traveled northeast before lifting northeast
of Tonne Drive East.

Survey Summary: Pending

EF Scale: The enhanced fujita scale classifies
tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0…Weak……65 TO 85 mph
EF1…Weak……86 TO 110 mph
EF2…Strong….111 TO 135 mph
EF3…Strong….136 TO 165 mph
EF4…Violent…166 TO 200 mph
EF5…Violent…>200 mph

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
230 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/19/2017 TORNADO EVENT IN GUADALUPE
COUNTY…

.Seguin Tornado…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 85 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 0.23 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 75 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: Feb 19 2017
Start Time: 1116 PM CST
Start Location: 7 S Seguin / Guadalupe County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 29.4605 / -97.9487

End Date: Feb 19 2017
End Time: 1118 PM CST
End Location: 7 S Seguin / Guadalupe County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 29.4626 / -97.9458

Survey_Summary: This short-lived tornado occurred about 7 miles
south of Seguin along Highway 123. This tornado caused several
recreational vehicles to overturn, and caused damage to several
sheds and outbuildings.

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/19/2017 TORNADO EVENT IN HAYS
COUNTY…

.OVERVIEW…STORM SURVEYS WERE CONDUCTED BY NWS METEOROLOGISTS
ACROSS HAYS COUNTY…PRIMARILY ALONG RANCH ROAD 12 AND NEW RANCH
ROAD 12 ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SAN MARCOS AND INTO WESTERN
KYLE. THESE REPORTS SHOULD STILL BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE TO THE TORNADO PATHS AND STRENGTHS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

.SAN MARCOS/KYLE TORNADO…

Rating: EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 9.75 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 300 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: Feb 19 2017
Start Time: 1126 PM CST
Start Location: 7 NW San Marcos / Hays County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 29.9156 / -98.0480

End Date: Feb 19 2017
End Time: 1135 PM CST
End Location: 2 SW Kyle / Hays County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 29.9636 / -97.8986

Survey_Summary: The survey team concluded that a tornado began at
the intersection of Ranch Road 12 and Hugo Road where some trees
were noted as snapped and a small business had considerable
structural damage. The tornado traveled northeast and likely
traversed a large area of land that was unaccessible until reaching
Hilliard Road and a neighborhood along Thousand Oaks Loop where a
wide area of considerable tree damage, including a tree uprooted and
fallen onto a vehicle, was found. The tornado path crossed the
Blanco River before ending near the Kyle Cemetery on Old Stagecoach
Road. At this point, damage became much less significant and
sporadic moving east toward I-35.

.NIEDERWALD/MUSTANG RIDGE TORNADO…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 85 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 3 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 100 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: Feb 19 2017
Start Time: 1148 PM CST
Start Location: 2 NW Niederwald / Hays County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 30.0361 / -97.7415

End Date: Feb 19 2017
End Time: 1151 PM CST
End Location: 1 NW Mustang Ridge / Travis County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 30.0613 / -97.7046

Survey_Summary: The survey team concluded that many damage areas across
central Hays county were due to straight line winds, but a new tornado
indeed developed northwest of Niederwald. Damage in this area included
a destroyed aluminum barn structure, car port damage, and a few trees
with large limbs snapped. As the tornado moved northeast into the Mustang
Ridge area, multiple mobile homes had significant roof damage consistent
with EF-0 speeds. The tornado likely lifted as it approached SH 130 as
damage east of SH 130 was found to be caused by straight line winds.

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/20/17 TORNADO EVENTS IN EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY…

.OVERVIEW…STORM SURVEYS WERE CONDUCTED BY NWS METEOROLOGISTS ACROSS EASTERN
WILLIAMSON COUNTY…PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 79 FROM SOUTH OF
TAYLOR TO THRALL…AND JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THRALL. THESE REPORTS SHOULD
STILL BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE TO THE TORNADO
PATHS AND STRENGTHS OVER THE COMING DAYS. OTHER DAMAGE SURVEYS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.THRALL TORNADO…

Rating: EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind: 118 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 9.4 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 200 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: Feb 20 2017
Start Time: 1225 AM CST
Start Location: 5 WSW Thrall / Williamson County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 30.5501 / -97.3594

End Date: Feb 20 2017
End Time: 1233 AM CST
End Location: 4 ENE Thrall / Williamson County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 30.6312 / -97.2436

Survey_Summary: This tornado was the northern one of a pair on near parallel
tracks a few miles south of U.S. Highway 79. Damage was sporadic…but
concentrated when it occurred. The most significant damage was to a metal
building system home…at least five other single family homes…and 12
railroad cars blown off the tracks east of Thrall. The train cars may have
also been affected by strong straight-line winds.

.NOACK TORNADO…

Rating: EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind: 112 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 9.54 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 100 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: Feb 20 2017
Start Time: 1228 AM CST
Start Location: 5 SW Thrall / Williamson County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 30.5443 / -97.3525

End Date: Feb 20 2017
End Time: 1231 AM CST
End Location: Thrall / Williamson County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 30.6816 / -97.2429

Survey_Summary: This tornado was the southern one of a pair on near parallel
tracks a few miles south of U.S. Highway 79. Damage was sporadic…but
concentrated when it occurred. The most significant damage was to a 3-bin grain
storage facility…where the bins were completely destroyed and swept from their
foundations. Additional damage occurred to an extension of Christ Lutheran
Church of Noack on FM 112…where the walls were bolted to the foundation.

EF Scale: The enhanced fujita scale classifies
tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0…Weak……65 TO 85 mph
EF1…Weak……86 TO 110 mph
EF2…Strong….111 TO 135 mph
EF3…Strong….136 TO 165 mph
EF4…Violent…166 TO 200 mph
EF5…Violent…>200 mph

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/20/2017 THUNDERSTORM WIND EVENT IN EASTERN
WILLIAMSON COUNTY…

.OVERVIEW…STORM SURVEYS WERE CONDUCTED BY NWS METEOROLOGISTS ACROSS EASTERN
WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN THE AREA NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 79 FROM NORTHWEST TO
NORTH OF THRALL. THESE REPORTS SHOULD STILL BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY
AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY STILL BE MADE TO THE WIND DAMAGE PATH AND STRENGTHS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. OTHER DAMAGE SURVEYS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.THUNDERSTORM WIND…

Peak Wind /E/: 118-138 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 2 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 500 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 2

Start Date: Feb 20 2017
Start Time: 1228 AM CST
Start Location: 2 NW Thrall / Williamson County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 30.6082 / -97.1330

End Date: Feb 20 2017
End Time: 1233 AM CST
End Location: 2 N Thrall / Williamson County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 30.6137 / -97.3012

Survey_Summary: While there was a strong circulation near the start of the
path…all of the damage observed was indicative of straight-line winds…
with debris strewn toward the east-northeast. At least 10 homes were
significantly damaged…and at least two dozen farm outbuildings…
mobile homes…and RVs were severely damaged or destroyed. The most
significant damage was along CR 420…where three RVs were rolled and
through 2-3 cycles and destroyed. A couple suffered minor injuries in one
of the RVs. In addition…a metal-building-system building was destroyed.
The metal plates of the main beam supports were bolted with nuts or J-bolts
into the concrete foundation…but were sheared or bent…and then torn away.
The entire roof and walls lofted and set down about 25 yards from the
foundation…but were severely bent and twisted.

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