Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com All About Texas Weather Sun, 01 May 2016 15:33:43 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.5.1 Marginal Threat of Severe Storms Today and Overnight http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/05/01/marginal-threat-severe-storms-today-increase-rainelevated-storms-overnight/ Sun, 01 May 2016 15:33:43 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44558 Cooler and drier air continues to filter in behind Friday’s cold front which is currently stalled out from about Texarkana towards Victoria and then west towards Del Rio.  Areas near and south of the stalled front have the best chances for seeing storm development this afternoon during peak daytime heating with hail and wind being […]

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Cooler and drier air continues to filter in behind Friday’s cold front which is currently stalled out from about Texarkana towards Victoria and then west towards Del Rio.  Areas near and south of the stalled front have the best chances for seeing storm development this afternoon during peak daytime heating with hail and wind being the primary threats.  Most of the short-range models are generating the bulk of storms this afternoon from along the coastal bend up into southeast Texas, with another pocket of storm development out west in the Del Rio vicinity.  A weak-ish upper level disturbance arrives from the west later this evening which will increase the chance for seeing more widespread rain and thunderstorm development overnight from deep south Texas all the way across central and north central Texas during the overnight hours. Storms that develop tonight across deep south Texas ahead of the cold front will have the best chance at becoming surface-based with the threat of large hail and perhaps an isolated tornadoes.  The overall risk for tornadoes across the region covered by the “Marginal Risk” below is low, but is not zero. Further north across central and north central Texas and over into the rolling plains region, any storms that develop tonight are expected to be elevated in nature with just a lightning and gusty wind threat.

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Forecast highs today, and the forecast lows expected overnight, reveal that we have pretty much the entire seasonal spectrum going on across our state once again.  We are so special!  Highs today will struggle to get into the 50s across the panhandle.  Meanwhile down in deep south Texas, conditions will be quite muggy and warm with highs in the low 90s.  Folks in north and central Texas will luck out with very pleasant highs in the mid to upper 70s.  Lows tonight, quite chilly and in the mid 30s to low 40s across the panhandle, with much more mild and pleasant 50s and 60s across north and central Texas.  Deep south and coastal regions will see lows only drop int0 the upper 60s to mid 70s overnight.

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After tonight’s round of rainfall exits the state by Monday afternoon, we’ll be in for a more prolonged dry period with high pressure building over the state for much of the work week.  It looks like we’ll remain dry until we get closer to the weekend and the arrival of our next upper level system which may generate storm chances across the western half of the state by next weekend.  Still too early to be certain on any of the details, but we’ll be watching that threat closely later this week.

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Your Saturday Forecast – Rain/Storms end across SE TX http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/30/saturday-forecast-rainstorms-continue-across-se-tx/ Sat, 30 Apr 2016 15:21:08 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44540 After an active overnight with multiple reports of tornadoes and flooding across east Texas, things will calm down considerably today and through Sunday.  A cold front has moved into the state and is currently stalled out diagonally from northeast Texas down through south central and southwest Texas.  Ongoing storms across southeast Texas should move offshore within […]

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After an active overnight with multiple reports of tornadoes and flooding across east Texas, things will calm down considerably today and through Sunday.  A cold front has moved into the state and is currently stalled out diagonally from northeast Texas down through south central and southwest Texas.  Ongoing storms across southeast Texas should move offshore within the next couple of hours.  If the atmosphere down there can recover sufficiently by this afternoon, we could see some redevelopment of storms ahead of the stalled frontal boundary, but at this time, that looks like a rather slim chance.  Best chance for seeing that would likely reside further south along the coastal bend where the atmosphere is less worked over by this morning’s storms and we get a bit of a seabreeze front moving onshore this afternoon.  Threats with any additional storm development will be gusty winds and maybe some hail.  Widespread severe is not expected.

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Further north across the panhandle region, a weakish piece of upper level energy will kick off a few chances for showers and storms today mainly across eastern New Mexico, but some of this activity could push into the western panhandle later this afternoon, evening and possibly into the overnight hours.  We even have a chance for some rain/snow mix across the far northern panhandle/Oklahoma panhandle, though it’s highly unlikely to move much beyond the western Oklahoma panhandle.  Everywhere else…a really nice day is expected with mild highs and drier air behind the aforementioned cold front.  Highs will be a good 10+ degrees below normal across the panhandle and reaching down into northwest Texas.  Further south, still several degrees below average and with less humid air in place across a good 3/4ths of the state, it will be very pleasant for any outdoor activities you might have planned for this afternoon.  Lows tonight…chilly and late winter-like across the panhandle, but quite mild and more typical of summer across deep south Texas.  Texas can can be very special like that from time to time!

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For the longer range into next week…widespread rain chances return by Monday then a blocking pattern is expecting to set leaving us with high pressure overhead for much of the week after Monday.  This will lead to mild conditions and little chances for rain until we get into the latter part of the week when we may see some rain and storm chances return to western Texas and the panhandle region.  I think after this past week, we all need a chance for things to calm down for a bit and dry out.

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Your Overnight Severe Weather Forecast http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/29/overnight-severe-weather-forecast/ Sat, 30 Apr 2016 02:03:21 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44535 Shortly before 9 PM we’re down to a couple severe thunderstorm warnings in the state. A large area of rain and thunderstorms continue to move northeast across Northeast Texas and East Texas. Several locations have received 3 to 5 inches of rain today with flash flooding an issue. Be mindful of flooded roadways and that […]

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Shortly before 9 PM we’re down to a couple severe thunderstorm warnings in the state. A large area of rain and thunderstorms continue to move northeast across Northeast Texas and East Texas. Several locations have received 3 to 5 inches of rain today with flash flooding an issue. Be mindful of flooded roadways and that you might not be able to see them easily at night. I myself almost had an issue with a flooded road on a chase today. Some storms may produce quarter size hail and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. The tornado threat – while not zero – has diminished compared to this afternoon in those two regions.

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A squall line is in the process of developing from near Paris southwest through Terrell to Waco and Fort Hood.   This line of storms is slowly pushing east. Some storms may produce hail up to the size of quarters and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH. An isolated tornado is not out of the question but the overall tornado threat is diminishing. Localized flooding could occur especially in locations that have already received heavy rain today.

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Overnight it’s possible a squall line takes shape in South-Central Texas into East Texas. Some of the storms in that squall line could be strong to severe with quarter size hail, damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH, and isolated tornadoes. The severe weather threat will not be as high compared to storms earlier this afternoon. Flash flooding is also a threat in East and Southeast Texas. The squall line itself could approach the Houston metro between 4 AM and 8 AM Saturday as it pushes into Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains overnight. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to have a way to receive weather warnings tonight. WeatherRadio by WDT is a wonderful app my family and I personally use.

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5:28pm Severe Weather Update – North Central Texas http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/29/520pm-severe-weather-update-north-central-texas/ Fri, 29 Apr 2016 22:28:24 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44529 Multiple areas of storms have erupted across north central Texas over the past several hours.  So far, conditions in the immediate Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area have remained under control with no significant reports of very large hail or other damage….yet.  We still have a few more hours to go yet.  East of the DFW metro […]

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Multiple areas of storms have erupted across north central Texas over the past several hours.  So far, conditions in the immediate Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area have remained under control with no significant reports of very large hail or other damage….yet.  We still have a few more hours to go yet.  East of the DFW metro area, the main concern at this time is a tornado warned cell between Murchison and Edom moving east at 20mph.  I’ve not seen any confirmation of an actual tornado touch down, but whatever is, or was, there is likely rain-wrapped and will be impossible to see.  Seek shelter now if you are in the path of this storm…don’t wait for visual confirmation because you probably won’t be able to see it at all.

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A large portion of Denton and Collin County remain under Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.  Hail up to 1.5 inches is likely with these storms as the continue off to the northeast.  The previous tornado warning for Grayson county has expired.

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Southwest of the DFW Metro, additional Severe warned storms are moving northeast and may pose a threat to areas south and southwest of Ft. Worth within the next hour.  Circulation has been noted with the storm currently over Comanche, but no confirmation of tornado touch down as of yet.  Treat this storm like it has one anyway and get into shelter if you’re in its path.  Hail up to 1.75 inches is also likely as this storm continues moving northeast at around 25.

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Tornado Watch for North-Central Texas until 10 PM CT http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/29/tornado-watch-north-central-texas-10-pm-ct/ Fri, 29 Apr 2016 18:13:15 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44523 A tornado watch has been issued for North and portions of Central Texas until 10 PM. This watch includes Sherman, D/FW, Stephenville, and Waco. Storms are already firing up across the watch area due to a very weak cap. Unlike most days where we have to wait for the dryline storms today could fire up […]

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A tornado watch has been issued for North and portions of Central Texas until 10 PM. This watch includes Sherman, D/FW, Stephenville, and Waco. Storms are already firing up across the watch area due to a very weak cap. Unlike most days where we have to wait for the dryline storms today could fire up on old outflow boundaries or randomly where the cap breaks. The strongest storms could become severe with a threat of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts.

 

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   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 124
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   105 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN MULTIPLE BANDS
   ACROSS CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL TX.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
   TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.  STORM
   COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE SEVERE WEATHER
   RISK SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH OF DALLAS TEXAS
   TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF TEMPLE TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
   THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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Numerous Severe Storms with Tornadoes Possible Today! http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/29/numerous-severe-storms-tornadoes-possible-2-pm/ Fri, 29 Apr 2016 17:36:51 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44519 A complex forecast continues today but confidence is increasing we may be dealing with a severe weather event in the making. The atmosphere along and east of Highway 281 has become very unstable. A low pressure area near Snyder, TX has allowed low-level wind shear to become impressive across much of the eastern half of […]

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A complex forecast continues today but confidence is increasing we may be dealing with a severe weather event in the making. The atmosphere along and east of Highway 281 has become very unstable. A low pressure area near Snyder, TX has allowed low-level wind shear to become impressive across much of the eastern half of Texas. We already have storms beginning to develop in East Texas due to a weak cap – which is in the process of collasping completely. With a weak cap and ascent across most of North, Central, and East Texas we could see storms fire up after 1-2 PM in pretty much anywhere. While the dryline will potentially fire up supercells in Northwest Texas and western North Texas today the warm-sector well east of the dryline could fire up storms nearly anywhere. For this reason we can’t specifically tell you when storms will impact your area. This won’t be a line or complex of storms moving from one location to another. We could be dealing with supercells in Texoma this afternoon while also dealing with supercells in Central and East Texas. I do believe we will see activity start picking up after 2 PM and a tornado watch isn’t far away most likely.

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The Storm Prediction Center has expanded a category 3 severe weather risk to include all of North Texas, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, and the Brazos Valley. All modes of severe weather are possible with storms today – including tornadoes. I emphasis that unlike most of our events in Texas these storms could pop up just about anywhere due to the weak cap today. A category 2 severe weather risk includes South-Central Texas and Southeast Texas. Please don’t base your expectations today from what happened on Tuesday. Have your severe weather safety plan ready to go this afternoon as storms could quickly intensify once they get going. A squall line will likely fire up in Northeast/East/Southeast Texas this evening with a threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

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Complex Forecast with Severe Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/29/complex-forecast-severe-storms-likely-afternoon-evening/ Fri, 29 Apr 2016 14:01:06 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44514 A very complex and messy convective evolution is anticipated today due to a weak cap. Shortly before 9 AM we already had strong thunderstorms moving east across the Texas Panhandle. Some of those storms could become severe with a hail risk through the morning hours. By the early to mid afternoon its anticipated that convective […]

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A very complex and messy convective evolution is anticipated today due to a weak cap. Shortly before 9 AM we already had strong thunderstorms moving east across the Texas Panhandle. Some of those storms could become severe with a hail risk through the morning hours. By the early to mid afternoon its anticipated that convective development will occur from Northeast Texas into Central Texas. With little to no cap in place these storms could form pretty much anywhere versus off the dryline. Storm coverage could become widespread which would work to keep one storm from becoming too intense. Nevertheless the strongest storms will likely pose a severe weather risk with the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. At the same time a dryline will surge east into western North Texas into western Central Texas by the afternoon hours. With a weak cap its likely thunderstorms will fire up east of the dryline by late afternoon. The strongest storms could be severe with a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Low-level wind shear is actually pretty favorable for rotating storms today but the ‘messy’ storm evolution lowers my confidence in a more significant severe weather threat at this time. If we see any supercells become established that can dominate their local enviornment they could produce baseball size hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Storms will continue into Northeast Texas and East Texas overnight with the potential for one to four inches of rain through Saturday. That could cause some flooding issues since soils are saturated and rivers are still full.

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Above is the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. They have an enhanced risk (category 3) placed across Texoma into North Texas and Northeast Texas. A category 2 severe weather risk includes the Texas Panhandle, North Texas, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, and portions of Southeast Texas. As stated above the forecast today is very complex – also known as uncertain. The enhanced risk has been placed where confidence is at least medium that there will be several severe weather reports today. That is also where the threat for isolated tornadoes is highest due to a warm front that will enhance low-level wind shear. Large hail is likely with the strongest storms today. If we see any dominant supercells take hold than the threat of very large hail up to the size of baseballs will increase. Localized damaging wind gusts are possible. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out – but that threat could locally be enhanced where the warm front sets up along the Red River if we see supercells this afternoon.

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9:20pm Severe Weather Update – Overnight Storm Chances http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/28/44509/ Fri, 29 Apr 2016 02:19:45 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44509 Storms across the rolling plains have begun to wind down a bit over the past half hour, but the threat for strong to severe storms remains likely across the northeastern panhandle between Borger, Pampa and Canadian for the next couple of hours until they move across the state line into western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, in central […]

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Storms across the rolling plains have begun to wind down a bit over the past half hour, but the threat for strong to severe storms remains likely across the northeastern panhandle between Borger, Pampa and Canadian for the next couple of hours until they move across the state line into western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, in central Texas, a small cluster of severe storms has developed and is currently situated between Salado and Waco. Half-dollar to golf ball size hail will be likely within this cluster as it heads north.  Additional scattered development is expected to continue tonight as these storms begin to migrate towards the I-20 corridor along a northward advecting warm frontal boundary  While we typically see the capping inversion return during the overnight hours…which would typically decrease the chance for severe weather…in this particular case, the cap will be weak to zero with ample instability for continuous storm development into tomorrow morning.  Difficult to pinpoint exactly how widespread the storm coverage will become, or exactly what portions of the DFW metroplex could be impacted by severe weather during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, but it’s a pretty sure bet that quite a few of us will be awakened after midnight by some thunder and lightning at the very least.  Large hail, some possibly exceeding 2 inches, and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats overnight, especially as the storms move north of the I-20 corridor towards the Red River.  Make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings should any be issued for your area overnight!  If you use a weather app on your smartphone to alert you, make sure you don’t have your phone on Mute as most of those apps do not override that feature.

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7:10pm Severe Weather Update http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/28/44505/ Fri, 29 Apr 2016 00:10:31 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44505 We continue to monitor the storm situation in the Texas panhandle this evening.  Scattered supercell thunderstorms have developed over the past few hours.  So far, no confirmed reports of tornadoes, but the storm currently northeast of Matador has the best potential we’ve seen so far.  Winds in excess of 70mph and hail up to 2 […]

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We continue to monitor the storm situation in the Texas panhandle this evening.  Scattered supercell thunderstorms have developed over the past few hours.  So far, no confirmed reports of tornadoes, but the storm currently northeast of Matador has the best potential we’ve seen so far.  Winds in excess of 70mph and hail up to 2 inches is possible with these storms as they continue to move northeast this evening.  A Tornado Watch remains in effect for the southern Texas panhandle and rolling plains of west central Texas until 11pm.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is also in effect for much of the Texas panhandle until 11pm as well.  Not everyone will see severe weather as these storms are widely scattered, but if you’re under one of these supercells, they pack a punch.

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Further south across central Texas, we will be monitoring for scattered storm development later this evening and into the early overnight hours.  The storms across the panhandle will not impact north Texas this evening, but the development anticipated across central Texas later this evening will move up into north Texas overnight into an atmosphere that will become increasingly unstable through the early morning hours.  Large hail will be the main threat overnight mainly north of the I-20 corridor towards the Red River counties.

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Tornado Watch Issued for Rolling Plains Until 11 PM http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/04/28/undefined-5/ Thu, 28 Apr 2016 20:57:51 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=44502 The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service have issued a tornado watch until 11 PM for the Rolling Plains. The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail up to the size of tennis balls, localized damaging winds up to 70 MPH, and isolated tornadoes. The highest tornado threat will be after 6 PM as […]

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The Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service have issued a tornado watch until 11 PM for the Rolling Plains. The strongest storms will be capable of producing hail up to the size of tennis balls, localized damaging winds up to 70 MPH, and isolated tornadoes. The highest tornado threat will be after 6 PM as any intense supercell begins to encounter a more moisture-rich environment.

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THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
     1100 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WITH SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN
   ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...EXPECTED TO
   MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY NE ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
   ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH LATE EVENING...AS MOISTURE INFLOW INCREASES
   AHEAD OF SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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