Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com All About Texas Weather Thu, 25 Aug 2016 10:51:40 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 http://texasstormchasers.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/cropped-Twister-32x32.png Texas Storm Chasers http://texasstormchasers.com 32 32 Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon/Evening http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/25/strong-storms-possible-afternoonevening/ Thu, 25 Aug 2016 10:51:40 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46605 The Storm Prediction Center has issued a category 1 severe weather risk. SPC uses a five-level risk system – 1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest. Risk levels are determined on the overall aerial coverage of severe weather expected along with the threat of higher-end severe weather. For now we have the lowest […]

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The Storm Prediction Center has issued a category 1 severe weather risk. SPC uses a five-level risk system – 1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest. Risk levels are determined on the overall aerial coverage of severe weather expected along with the threat of higher-end severe weather. For now we have the lowest of five levels in place. This marginal risk of severe weather includes the Permian Basin, South Plains, Rolling Plains, Northwest Texas, the Caprock, and the eastern two-thirds of the Texas Panhandle. We do note that a category 2 severe weather risk isn’t that far off in Oklahoma, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see portions of the Panhandle upgraded to a category 2 risk in later outlooks today. The primary severe weather threats with the strongest storms will be damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH and hail up to the size of quarters. Wind shear values in the Panhandle may support a few stronger hail cores so we’ll have to keep an eye out for larger hail potential.

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The best chance for scattered thunderstorms today will be in two regions – west and east. The Concho Valley, Big Country, North Texas, and South Texas will be surrounded by rain chances, but should remain dry. Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are expected today across the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, Rolling plains, Permian Basin, Pecos Basin, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. The severe weather potential, as previously mentioned, will be in the western parts of our state today. Rain chances will continue tonight in western parts of Texas and in Southeast Texas. The severe weather threat should diminish late this evening, but a few strong storms may continue in the Texas Panhandle.

Risk of flash flooding today and tonight

Risk of flash flooding today and tonight

With plenty of moisture in place and the potential for several storms we do have the potential for localized flooding in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and the Permian Basin today and tonight. Widespread flash flooding isn’t expected, but some locations could pick up a few inches of rain. Folks out in the Panhandle know it doesn’t take much rain to turn rural roads to mud and for low-water crossings to become impassable.

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Rain chances increase on Friday along the Interstate 35 corridor from the Red River (Texoma) south into Central Texas. Numerous showers/storms can be expected tomorrow in Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. Rain chances will also be in place across the Permain Basin. Isolated to widely scattered activity will continue into the weekend with locally heavy rain.

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We continue to monitor a strong tropical wave located several hundred miles southeast of the Bahamas. Most weather models keep Invest 99L a relatively disorganized tropical disturbance through tomorrow. By Sunday this system should be near Southeast Florida. From there the system, if it even develops, could try and make a run into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I will say that at this point I believe the direct threat to the Texas Coast is low, but not zero. If the system makes it into the eastern Gulf it could ramp up in a hurry. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a high chance of developing into a tropical storm by this weekend. Should this become a tropical cyclone it will be named Hermine. Regardless of the track of this system it will probably bring more moisture into Southeast Texas by the end of next week. I encourage our followers on the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on this system as we continue into the weekend and next week.

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Continued Rain in the West; Watching The Tropics http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/24/continued-rain-west-watching-tropics/ Wed, 24 Aug 2016 11:26:12 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46597 Widespread light to moderate rain is moving northeast across the Permian Basin, West Texas, and the Texas Panhandle this morning. Most of this activity is light in nature. We are seeing heavier showers and storms on Interstate 20 in the Permian Basin this morning. Some of the heavier activity may produce locally heavy rain and […]

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Widespread light to moderate rain is moving northeast across the Permian Basin, West Texas, and the Texas Panhandle this morning. Most of this activity is light in nature. We are seeing heavier showers and storms on Interstate 20 in the Permian Basin this morning. Some of the heavier activity may produce locally heavy rain and minor flooding. Severe weather, in the form of damaging wind gusts and hail, is not expected with this morning’s activity. It should continue to make progress to the northeast through the mid-morning.

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Temperatures continue their daily climb and will return to near normal for late August across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. High temperatures should top out in the middle to upper 90s with 100s in the Rio Grande Valley & Deep South Texas. Folks in the western third of the state will top out in the 80s thanks to clouds and continued rain chances.

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Besides an isolated shower in Southeast Texas this afternoon rain chances will be confined to the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and Pecos Valley today. Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are forecast today and tonight in much of the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, Pecos Valley, Davis Mountains, and the Borderland. Some activity today may produce locally heavy rain with a small risk of flash flooding. In addition to the heavy rain potential a few storms later this afternoon may become strong with gusty winds and small hail. Rain chances continue tonight over the same areas. In fact, storms with gusty winds and heavy rain may become more numerous overnight in the Texas Panhandle.

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The Atlantic Basin is heating up and our primary focus will be on Invest 99L. Located near the Leeward Islands a tropical wave continues to move west/northwest. Hurricane Hunters investigating the system yesterday did not find an organized low-level circulation. Conditions are modestly favorable for organization over the next two days, but become more favorable for organization into a tropical cyclone this weekend. Current projections place Invest 99L off the southeast coast of Florida, near the Bahamas, later this weekend. From there confidence in any particular direction or intensity of the storm remain low. Its possible 99L doesn’t become more than a tropical depression by this weekend. From Florida 99L could swing northeast back into the Atlantic Basin, or more west into the Gulf of Mexico. We’ll post a more detailed blog on Invest 99L and its potential future later this morning here on our website. Needless to say, all those who live on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should keep an eye on the tropics over the next two weeks.

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Rain Chances Shift West with Temperatures Creeping Up http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/23/rain-chances-shift-west-temperatures-creeping/ Tue, 23 Aug 2016 11:28:28 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46577 Temperatures will creep up another degree or two thsi afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 90s. While not as pleasant as last week temperatures will still be a couple degrees below where they should be for late August. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be back to their usual weather […]

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Temperatures will creep up another degree or two thsi afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 90s. While not as pleasant as last week temperatures will still be a couple degrees below where they should be for late August. Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be back to their usual weather with highs right around 100 degrees. Where we see rain showers this afternoon temperatures should fall back into the 80s – albit with humidity values that make you wish it was a dry heat. 

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Showers are moving northeast this morning from Fort Stockton to Starling City to Abilene to Vernon and Wichita Falls. This activity is quite light and just enough to dampen the ground. A much drier day is on tap for the heartland as rain chances shift west today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today across the Borderland in Far West Texas, the Permian Basin, West Texas, into western sections of the Big Country and Northwest Texas. Isolated storms will be possible in the Texas Panhandle and in more typical fashion, down in Southeast Texas. Unlike last week the rains in Southeast Texas today will be the typical summer popcorn storms. They’ll rain a bunch over a small area before dissipating within 30-45 minutes. Their outflow will spark off new storms and that process will continue until the early evening hours. The rains out in West Texas will be due to the monsoonal flow. Some activity could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather and flash flooding is not expected to be an issue today. Rain chances will continue into the overnight hours from the Texas Panhandle south through West Texas, the Permain Basin, and into the Borderland.

Much of the same weather will continue this week, although rain chances may shift back southeast into more of Texas by Friday. I’ll leave you with local weather graphics produced by National Weather Service offices across Texas. Make it a great Tuesday and stay cool!

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Rain Shifts West This Week http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/22/rain-shifts-west-week/ Mon, 22 Aug 2016 23:30:36 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46565 Scattered showers and a few stronger storms will continue across the northern half of the state for a few more hours before most of the activity eventually dies out after the sun sets.  Best chances for overnight rain will be northwest of the DFW metro area across western north Texas and the eastern rolling plains. […]

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Scattered showers and a few stronger storms will continue across the northern half of the state for a few more hours before most of the activity eventually dies out after the sun sets.  Best chances for overnight rain will be northwest of the DFW metro area across western north Texas and the eastern rolling plains. Elsewhere, the radar is expected to remain mostly quiet with no hazards expected.

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For Tuesday, high pressure currently over northern Florida will begin to expand and shift westward with the western periphery of the ridge settling in over the eastern half of the Texas. This will limit rainfall potential for central and eastern Texas over the next several days.  The western half of the state…particularly across far west Texas, the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin, Big Country, Rolling Plains and portions of the Texas Panhandle…will see an uptick in rainfall chances Tuesday through Wednesday as moisture flows northward into the region while it’s sandwiched between the high pressure ridge to the east and a low pressure trough to the west.  A couple of disturbances will also ride along the western periphery of the ridge which will likely result in multiple rounds of heavy rainfall across the area over the next few days. Exactly where the bands of heaviest rainfall will occur cannot be predicted at this time, but local forecasters are monitoring the potential for flooding concerns. That said, we may begin to see Flash Flood Watches issued for counties across this region by tomorrow after review of the next set of model data which rolls in late this evening.

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Forecast highs tomorrow will also be creeping back up into the low 90s across much of the state.  That is still a few degrees below what we typically see in late August but that trend is likely to continue for the remainder of the work week.

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Scattered Storms with Slightly Warmer Temperatures http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/22/scattered-storms-slightly-warmer-temperatures/ Mon, 22 Aug 2016 11:26:30 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46557 Showers with heavy rain are moving north across South-Central Texas this morning. These showers are moving into the San Antonio metro just in time for the morning rush hour. I’ll go ahead and apologize for those who are about to deal with rush hour headaches. The heaviest rains extend from Jourdanton to Whitsett to Pawnee. […]

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Showers with heavy rain are moving north across South-Central Texas this morning. These showers are moving into the San Antonio metro just in time for the morning rush hour. I’ll go ahead and apologize for those who are about to deal with rush hour headaches. The heaviest rains extend from Jourdanton to Whitsett to Pawnee. This activity is moving north towards Elmendorf and Floresville. Other showers are occuring in San Antonio and in the Middle Texas Coast. You can track the rain with our interactive weather radar here.

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Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today in Far West Texas, the Permian Basin, Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, East Texas, and Northeast Texas. Isolated storms will be possible in the South Plains, Rolling Plains, Northwest Texas, Deep South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Flash Flood Outlook Today

Flash Flood Outlook Today

Locally heavy rain will be possible with the stronger storms today. If these heavy rains fall over an area that has experienced flooding over the past week localized flooding will be possible. Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding is not anticipated today. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.

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Temperatures are starting to slowly creep back up and will continue to rise this week. The Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas will be the hottest today with upper 90s to lower 100s. Lower 90s will be common across South-Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and into Central Texas. The remainder of the state should top out somewhere in the 80s – below average to late August.

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Localized flooding remains a threat; Decreasing rain intensity tonight http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/21/localized-flooding-remains-threat-decreasing-rain-intensity-tonight/ Sun, 21 Aug 2016 20:28:51 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46552 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving north across the Middle Texas Coast, Southeast Texas, East Texas, and back west into South-Central and South Texas. Reported flash flooding has been localized this afternoon to just east of the San Antonio metro from Karnes City to Smiley. The good news is precipitation in that general […]

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Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving north across the Middle Texas Coast, Southeast Texas, East Texas, and back west into South-Central and South Texas. Reported flash flooding has been localized this afternoon to just east of the San Antonio metro from Karnes City to Smiley. The good news is precipitation in that general area has weakened considerably since lunch. The heaviest activity now extends from Sinton to near Victoria to near Bay City. All of this activity is moving north.

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Moisture levels remain quite high and supportive of very heavy rains from the most intense activity south of a stationary front. Rain rates over 2 inches per hour are possible from the heaviest showers this afternoon. The best chance for the heaviest rains will be in the Middle Texas Coast into South-Central Texas. Localized flash flooding will be possible where we see multiple inches of rain fall in a few hour period. The threat of flash flooding is enhanced in areas that saw heavy rains yesterday and this morning. Further east isolated activity is moving back on-shore in Southeast Texas – which could impact the Houston metro at some point. Light rain is falling in both San Antonio and Austin, but is much lighter than what fell this morning. Unless activity increases in intensity flash flooding is not an imminent threat in AUS/SAT.

Chance of rain tonight

Chance of rain tonight

Rain intensity and coverage is anticipated to decrease by 7-9 PM as the atmosphere starts to stabilize. Current indications are that a repeat of last night’s overnight heavy rain should not materialize tonight. Isolated to scattered showers could indeed continue into the night south of a line from Interstate 20 in the Permian Basin, through the big Country, North Texas, and into Northeast Texas. Unless we see an unexpected intensity increase in rain tonight the risk of flash flooding should be lower/minor.

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Flash Flood Warning: Karnes, Dewitt, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Wilson Counties till 215PM http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/21/flash-flood-warning-karnes-dewitt-gonzales-guadalupe-wilson-counties-till-215pm/ Sun, 21 Aug 2016 16:31:04 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46543 Flash Flood Warning for Karnes, Dewitt, Gonzales, Guadalupe, and Wilson Counties in South-Central Texas until 2:15 PM. A few towns included are Kenedy, Karnes City, Poth, Stockdale, Kosciusko, Nixon. Runge, Falls City, Smiley, Gillett, Pandora, Cestohowa. El Oso, Wrightsboro, Belmont, Pana Maria, Monthalia. New Davy, Choate and Hobson. New heavy showers have developed across the warned […]

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Flash Flood Warning for Karnes, Dewitt, Gonzales, Guadalupe, and Wilson Counties in South-Central Texas until 2:15 PM. A few towns included are Kenedy, Karnes City, Poth, Stockdale, Kosciusko, Nixon. Runge, Falls City, Smiley, Gillett, Pandora, Cestohowa. El Oso, Wrightsboro, Belmont, Pana Maria, Monthalia. New Davy, Choate and Hobson. New heavy showers have developed across the warned area and are slowly moving north. These showers will drop a quick one to two inches of rain over an area that received copious amounts of rain overnight. Flash flooding may redevelop quickly.

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The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a Flash Flood Warning for: Karnes County in south central Texas. Southwestern Dewitt County in south central Texas. Southwestern Gonzales County in south central Texas. Southeastern Guadalupe County in south central Texas. Eastern Wilson County in south central Texas.

  • Until 2:15 PM CDT.
  • At 11:22 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing Heavy Rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash Flooding is expected to begin shortly. This area has already experienced Flash Flooding overnight and with the ground saturated, additional flash flooding is imminent as this new activity moves north at 20 mph.
  • Some locations that will experience flooding include: Kenedy, Karnes City, Poth, Stockdale, Kosciusko, Nixon. Runge, Falls City, Smiley, Gillett, Pandora, Cestohowa. El Oso, Wrightsboro, Belmont, Pana Maria, Monthalia. New Davy, Choate and Hobson. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.

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Heavy Rainfall Threat Continues For South Central TX Today http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/21/heavy-rainfall-threat-continues-south-central-tx-today/ Sun, 21 Aug 2016 14:47:47 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46531 The focus for heavy rainfall this morning and through the afternoon remains across much of south central, south and parts of southeast Texas. Yesterday’s cold front has stalled across central Texas and will remain a source of lift across the region today. Tomorrow, we’ll begin to see the front lift back off to the north and rain […]

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The focus for heavy rainfall this morning and through the afternoon remains across much of south central, south and parts of southeast Texas. Yesterday’s cold front has stalled across central Texas and will remain a source of lift across the region today. Tomorrow, we’ll begin to see the front lift back off to the north and rain chances will expand north along with it. Rain remains in the forecast on and off through much of the week ahead, but rainfall amounts do not look to be as generous as what we experienced over the past several days.

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For today, the potential for very heavy rainfall will once again be focused across south central Texas with an additional 1 to 3 inches expected area wide along with the potential for locally higher 4 to 6+ inch amounts. We’ll likely see a bit of a downward trend in rain this morning, but that will pick up by early afternoon with increased daytime heating. This additional rainfall will be on top of what fell last night across the region, and will only exacerbate ongoing flash flooding issues. Flash Flood Watches remain in effect today across much of south central and south Texas. Previous Flash Flood Watches for counties in north central Texas have been cancelled as the threat for heavy rainfall today will remain well south of the region.

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For tonight, rainfall chances should decrease and we’ll see a bit of reprieve from most of the heavy rainfall. The chance for isolated pockets of heavier rain may be present overnight west of the Austin/San Antonio region, but at this time, significant flooding impacts are not expected. Much like what we saw last night, smaller-scale features will drive rainfall chances overnight, so we’ll continue to monitor the short-term forecast today and bring you the latest if any additional threats develop.

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Flash Flood Risk Increasing in San Antonio Metro http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/21/flash-flood-risk-increasing-san-antonio-metro/ Sun, 21 Aug 2016 07:45:21 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46525 A complex of very slow thunderstorms is slowly expanding north in the San Antonio metro. Over 3.5 inches of rain has fallen over the past 2 hours at Stinson Airport on the south side of town. Hourly rainfall rates are over two inches per hour. Water rescues are being reported on Interstate 35 at Nogalitos […]

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A complex of very slow thunderstorms is slowly expanding north in the San Antonio metro. Over 3.5 inches of rain has fallen over the past 2 hours at Stinson Airport on the south side of town. Hourly rainfall rates are over two inches per hour. Water rescues are being reported on Interstate 35 at Nogalitos Street and at Bascum Blvd and Deely Place – both on the south side of town. The heavy rains are slowly shifting north and may soon encompass much of San Antonio. This is a potentially dangerous flash flood situation developing. Due to the copious amounts of moisture in place along with the training thunderstorms we could see several inches of rain over the coming hours. Stay off the roads if possible as we may see flash flooding rapidly develop through 4 AM. If rain rates continue as high as they are a significant flooding event may occur in the coming hours across portions of the San Antonio metro.

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Significant Flooding Threat Tonight in Central/South-Central TX http://texasstormchasers.com/2016/08/20/significant-flooding-threat-tonight-centralsouth-central-tx/ Sat, 20 Aug 2016 21:11:55 +0000 http://texasstormchasers.com/?p=46518 A classic overnight rain event seems to be setting up in Central/South-Central Texas. A slow moving cool front will make its way south of Interstate 20 by late this evening. Copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and from the Pacific will converge south of the front. The front will help provide lift […]

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hrrrx_ref_austin_15A classic overnight rain event seems to be setting up in Central/South-Central Texas. A slow moving cool front will make its way south of Interstate 20 by late this evening. Copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and from the Pacific will converge south of the front. The front will help provide lift which will make thunderstorm development more likely. Since steering currents aloft are weak the storms aren’t forecast to be in much of a hurry. Short-term high resolution weather models are showing storms that do form tonight will likely back build and train over the same areas. Training is when storms simply keep redeveloping and move over the same locations. Essentially it looks like the storms are just stalled out and sitting. When you have copious amounts of moisture available that can quickly become a big problem with excessive rains.

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The stage seems to be setting up for a localized, but significant rainfall event in Central and South-Central Texas tonight. I can’t say with complete certainty where storms are going to fire up and sit tonight. The more probable solution is for the eastern Hill Country into Central Texas – including Austin south through San Antonio – and locations just east. With the lift tonight we could see rain rates approach 3 inches per hour. With several hours of rain it is not out of the question that we see new rain totals exceed 10 inches in localized areas tonight. In fact, the National Weather Service in San Antonio is saying isolated totals up to 15 inches will be possible. I want to emphasis those kinds of rain totals would be extremely localized. Yet with the potential for another 5-10+ inches of rain over a localized area tonight we need to be very aware of the flood potential. Regardless of where, if we see 7-12+ inches of rainfall tonight it will cause major flash flooding. If we see that kind of rain fall in more of an urbanized enviornment the results could be very serious – and potentially with catastrophic flash flooding. The good news is those excessive rains shouldn’t fall on more than a few counties tonight, but it won’t be good news for those who end up dealing with it. Please keep an eye to the sky and have a plan if you live in a typical flooding location.’

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The Weather Prediction Center – in consultation with local weather service offices – has upgraded portions of Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and the Hill Country to a HIGH RISK of Flash Flooding Tonight. Previous setups like the one tonight have produced significant flooding. Its not a guarantee but confidence is increasing we’re going to have real serious issues later tonight.

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