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Category: Severe Weather
January 25, 2012 – Tornado Surveys
NOTE: Storm Surveys are still on-going and additional events will be added to this page as they are received.
Austin, Texas Tornado
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 251 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012 ...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR NORTHEAST AUSTIN TX... A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS MORNING IN THE AREA ALONG SPRINGDALE ROAD IN NORTHEAST AUSTIN. THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED... EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012 EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0 EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 30.3221/-97.6536 AT 258 AM EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 30.3381/-97.6551 AT 305 AM DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.14 DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 50 THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF COMMERCIAL PARK DRIVE AND OLD MANOR ROAD...WITH RADAR INDICATING A TOUCHDOWN TIME NEAR 2:58 AM. DAMAGE CONTINUED NORTH THROUGH AN INDUSTRIAL PARK...THEN ACROSS U.S. 290...BEFORE ENTERING THE WALNUT PLACE SUBDIVISION. FURTHER DAMAGE OCCURRED TO HOMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL... WITH TREES ON THE EAST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL LAYING DOWN TOWARD THE WEST AND CONVERGING WITH THE DAMAGE TO THE HOMES. DEBRIS WAS NOTED ALONG FERGUSON LANE...WITH THE TORNADO PATH ENDING JUST WEST OF THE INTERSECTION OF FERGUSON LANE AND SANSOM ROAD.;
Courtesy of City of Austin Homeland Security and Emergency Management – Tornado Track Map
San Antonio, Texas Tornado
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 331 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012 ...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR SOUTHWEST SAN ANTONIO TX... A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREA ALONG DEER PARK (STREET) IN SOUTHWEST SAN ANTONIO. THE FOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED... EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012 EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATA ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATING INJURIES/FATALITIES: 0 EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 29.4556/-98.6645 AT 415 AM EVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 29.4545/-98.6603 DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 0.27 DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 30 THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF DEER PARK AND RICHLAND HILLS DRIVE...AND CONTINUED ALONG DEER PARK TO THE INTERSECTION OF DEER PARK AND LEANDER. THE PRIMARY DAMAGE WAS A CARPORT BEING THROWN INTO A HOME AND CAUSING SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
Estimated Tornado Track (This was created using the damage survey. This meant to only be an estimation of the exact track of the tornado.)
Pearland, Texas Tornado
Pearland, TX Damaging Wind and Tornado Track (From NWS Houston)
THE SURVEY TEAM FOUND A SWATH OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE BEGINNING AROUND HATFIELD ROAD AND EXTENDED EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 2 MILES WHICH CONSISTED OF FENCES BLOWN DOWN AND SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE. THE DAMAGE SWATH WAS BETWEEN 1/10 AND 1/4 MILE WIDE. WITHIN THAT SWATH IT WAS DETERMINED THAT A SHORT LIVED TORNADO ALSO TOUCHED DOWN AT HIGHWAY 35 AND PLUM STREET. A CHEVRON STATION HAD ITS ITS GAS PUMP AWNING DESTROYED AND THE BUSINESS TO THE SOUTH OF PLUM STREET HAD ITS ROOF PEELED BACK. TORNADO PATH WAS APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS LONG AND WAS 75 YARDS WIDE. IT WAS RATED AN EF-0 WITH 65 TO 85 MPH WINDS.
Brenham, Texas Tornado
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED WITHIN THE TOWN OF BRENHAM EXTENDING TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF FM 50 TO NEAR INDEPENDENCE. THIS EVENT WAS FROM APPROXIMATELY 700 AM TO 725 AM. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60 AND 75 MPH WHICH DOWNED POWERLINES AND NUMEROUS TREES. THE DAMAGE WAS SPORADIC AND NOT CONTINUOUS. THE ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS ALSO DROPPED A TORNADO DOWN WEST OF COUNTY ROAD 50 JUST TO THE NORTH OF BRENHAM MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND TRAVELED EASTWARD TO THE INTERSECTION OF FM262 AND COUNTY ROAD 65. THIS TORNADO DESTROYED SEVERAL METAL OUTBUILDINGS AND REMOVED THE ROOF FROM A BARN. IT ALSO PRODUCED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND SNAPPED NUMEROUS LARGE TREES. THIS TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF-0 WITH ESTIMATED 85 MPH WINDS. DAMAGE PATH WAS 2.5 MILES LONG AND 50 YARDS WIDE.
Caldwell, Texas Tornado
EVENT TIME…6:43 AM
EVENT TYPE…EF1 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)…90 to 100
INJURIES/FATALITIES…0
AN EF1 TORNADO CUT A DAMAGE SWATH THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF DEANVILLE TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF CALDWELL. DAMAGE APPEARED TORNADIC ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THAT AREA WITH NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONE HOUSE WAS PUSHED OFF A CINDER BLOCK BASE THEN DRAGGED ALONG A CURVED PATH FOR ABOUT 100 FEET. A FEED TRAILER WAS LIFTED OVER A FENCE THEN ROLLED ABOUT 150 FEET. SEVERAL SHEDS AND BARNS WERE DESTROYED. STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE ALSO FOUND IN THE AREA.
Madison County, Texas Tornado
EVENT TIME…8:00 AM
EVENT TYPE…EF0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)…65 to 85
INJURIES/FATALITIES…0
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH… 1/3 MILE
DAMAGE WIDTH… 50 YARDS
TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG A NARROW PATH. BARN DESTROYED WITH TIN FROM ROOF FANNED OUT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND THROWN IN SOME CASES ABOUT 200 YARDS. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO HOME. STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE ALSO FOUND IN THE AREA.
Huntsville, Texas Tornadoes
EVENT TIME…9:06 AM
EVENT TYPE…EF0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)…65 to 85
INJURIES/FATALITIES…0
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH… 0.36 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH… 50 YARDS
TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT CAR DEALERSHIP, LIFTED METAL AWNING AND MOVED IT 100 YARDS AWAY ON TOP OF TWO CARS. THERE WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO THE TWO CARS.
EVENT TIME…9:10 AM
EVENT TYPE…EF0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)…65 to 85
INJURIES/FATALITIES…0
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH… 50 YARDS
DAMAGE WIDTH… 25 YARDS
TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN IN A RESIDENTIAL SECTION OF HUNTSVILLE CAUSING SIGINIFICANT TREE DAMAGE. ONE OF THE TREES DID FALL ON A NEARBY HOUSE CAUSING SOME ROOF DAMAGE. TREES IN THE AREA WERE BLOWN DOWN IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS GIVING INDICATION OF A STRONG CIRCULATION IN THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN THE HUNSTVILLE AREA WITH NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE CITY. THERE WAS ONE INJURY AT SAM HOUSTON STATE UNIVERSITY FROM A FALLING TREE LIMB.
Houston NWS: Huntsville, TX Tornado Track
Morning Rain Totals
Rainfall totals through 11 AM
This graphic came from the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and shows radar estimated rainfall totals through 11 AM this morning. Please realize that the actual rain totals could vary from location to location, but this is the overall average. While the new drought outlook wont be released until next week, I think its safe to say some locations in North Texas are officially out of drought conditions. Just looking at a few lake levels across Dallas, it looks like Joe Pool Lake and Mountain Creek Lake are actually one to two feet above their normal values. It will take several days for run-off to make it to area lakes and some rivers will remain in flood through the weekend.
Like I said over on our Facebook and Twitter pages, we really didn’t expect the amount of severe weather we ended up with. Short term data, even at 9 PM last night, suggested we would face some severe weather threat, but not the widespread nature we saw this morning. That goes to show you how difficult it can be to forecast severe weather during the cool season when you have several factors that cannot be determined until the event begins. We will have more on this morning’s severe weather in a discussion later tonight. We’re looking at data from this morning to find out what ingredients were stronger then expected. In addition, we’ll also post damage surveys as they are released by the National Weather Service.
Severe MCS Marching East
As many of you know, a strong to severe Mesoscale Convective System is currently moving east toward the Texas Gulf Coast. We don’t have time to post many details right now, but multiple Tornado Warnings and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued for parts of this system. Violent tornadoes are highly unlikely, but residents of the Houston area (as well as many others) should be paying close attention to see if the National Weather Service issues a warning for their area, as damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are still very possible.
7 PM Severe Weather Outlook
The Storm Prediction Center has issued their 7 PM Convective Outlook. The outlook remains unchanged except for an extension of the low probabilities northward to Interstate 20. This first graphic shows the overall risk of experiencing severe weather overnight. Locations within the orange line are in the standard slight risk of severe weather. That means you have a 15% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of your location. The yellow-line marks a 5% chance of experiencing severe weather, which is considered a low risk.
Chance of Severe Wind (58+ MPH)
Here’s the risk of experiencing a tornado within 25 miles. The standard risk is 5% which can be seen inside the orange outline. There is a low probability, a 2% chance, within the yellow dotted line. The main timeframe is still expected to be 9 AM to 6 AM. Here’s the complete discussion.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL TX
THE
TX HILL COUNTRY AND MIDDLE TX COAST...
..TX HILL COUNTRY/MIDDLE TX COAST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENTERING WEST
TX WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING ACROSS THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS BAND OF ASCENT MOVES INTO WCNTRL TX OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS FROM EAST OF ABILENE SSWWD TO AROUND EAGLE
PASS. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF INITIATION REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DEVELOPS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BEGINNING AROUND 04Z. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AS A
LINEAR MCS GRADUALLY ORGANIZES AND MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND ONTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT.
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE
FROM AROUND EAGLE PASS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM 03Z TO 06Z SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG/...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT
WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS ADEQUATE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH CELLS THAT HAVE
ACCESS TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND REMAIN DISCRETE. ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL...HAVE RETAINED THE HATCHED SIGNIFICANT HAIL
THREAT AREA FOR HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...BUT
HAVE MOVED THE THREAT AREA TO JUST WEST OF THE SAN ANTONIO AND
AUSTIN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT THREAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CELLS MERGE INTO A NEARLY CONTINUOUS
LINE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A 40
TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SO THIS SHOULD KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT GOING
WITH CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR WITH DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE AS THE LINEAR
MCS REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 01/25/2012
Severe Weather Watch Likely for South Texas
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 250113Z - 250245Z
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL INCREASE AS TSTM COVERAGE GROWS LATER THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE TYPE OF WW...THE PROBABILITY OF
ISSUANCE BY 03Z IS 60 PERCENT.
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN/BIG BEND...AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DRT AND
LRD. PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY S OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH A RELATIVELY RICH WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH
OF S-CNTRL TX. FARTHER NW...MORE MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
EXISTS WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 800 MB IN THE
00Z DRT RAOB. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE GRADUALLY REMOVED AS
BAND OF FORCED ASCENT /NOW CROSSING THE BIG BEND/ OVERSPREADS THE
MODIFIED WARM SECTOR OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH MAY PERSIST
BETWEEN 800-700 MB...VEERING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST TSTMS WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A CLUSTER
MODE WITH PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE NE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012
Chase Status
This shows the probability of a storm chase within the next 5 days.
By roczag
By weatherworm