Author: David Reimer

Hurricane Nate eyewall and storm surge!

Posted by Texas Storm Chasers on Saturday, October 7, 2017

Video from Biloxi as Hurricane Nate’s Surge Arrives

Video from Jason Cooley on the ground in Biloxi, MS as the storm surge and northern eyewall of Hurricane Nate move on-shore. Jason reports water has quickly risen over the last...

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Severe Storms Expected in the Texas Panhandle Tomorrow

Fall is our secondary severe weather season in Texas as the jet stream dips farther south and we start to encounter airmass changes. That’ll pretty much sum up how tomorrow is going to place out in places like Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, southward into the Texas Panhandle and northern sections of the South Plains and Rolling Plains. The fine folks over at the Storm Prediction Center have included all those regions in a severe weather risk zone for the late afternoon and evening hours tomorrow (Friday, October 6). We have the standard level 2 risk zone encompassing all of...

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Tropical Depression 16 Forms in NW Caribbean; LA to FL Need To Watch Closely For Hurricane This Weekend

The area of thunderstorms located over the northwestern Carribean Sea has become more organized overnight. This morning high-resolution satellite data confirmed a defined low had formed, thus meeting the criteria for a tropical cyclone. Advisories on Tropical Depression #16 were initiated by the National Hurricane Center at 10 AM CT. Like our blog discussion, last night stated future ‘Nate’ will continue to move north/northwestward over the next few days before entering the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. A high pressure in the western Atlantic will eventually pull the system north and northeast, but it must be stressed the timing...

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First Look at Invest 90L; High Probability of Developing in the Gulf of Mexico This Weekend

Tropical mischief is on the horizon as a quick-developing system may bring impacts to the Gulf Coast of the United States this weekend. The eventual location of those impacts and the extent of potential impacts will not be something we can accurately determine until we’re within 48-60 hours. At this juncture, we’re still 96-120 hours out from any potential landfall. Before the hype-train gets going let’s get into the details. An area of thunderstorms is located over the southwestern Carribean tonight. This activity has shown some increase in organization today. A general northwestward movement is anticipated through Thursday with some interaction with Honduras and Nicaragua possible. After that, the system will move near the eastern Yucatan Peninsula before entering the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Development into a Tropical Storm is fairly likely (70%+) by the time it enters the Gulf of Mexico. I do caution you that the system has not even formed a defined low-level circulation yet. Weather models tend to do much better when there is a ‘pinpoint’ low pressure in place. Without that defined low on a map, the models are simply guessing where it is before it even forms. Garbage into the weather models will usually lead to the garbage coming out of them. There’s a reason we’re not showing weather models in this graphic tonight except for a few thin lines. Once...

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Scattered to Numerous Showers Likely Tuesday and Wednesday

After a couple days of drying out, we’re heading back into another period of wet weather. A longwave trough over the western United States will send ripples of energy (lift) over parts of Texas in the coming few days. This longwave trough is also helping to advect lots of moisture northward – as shown in the graphic above. Precipitable Water values around two deviations above average for early October will allow for efficient rainfall rates. Rain chances will increase tonight along the coast in Southeast Texas and the Middle Texas Coast before we see more widespread rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday across the state. The highest chance of showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday will be along and east of Highway 281. I expect there will be periods of rain impacting most of our larger metropolitan areas tomorrow including D/FW, AUS, SAT, HOU, CRP, BRO, and LRD. This does not mean it will rain for the entire day, although I would have indoor backup plans ready to go. Rain chances will increase Tuesday Night further west and north across Texas and into Oklahoma and Kansas with scattered showers expected. A few storms can’t be ruled out, but severe weather is unlikely. Instead of describing where the highest rain chances look to be on Wednesday I’ll simply describe who has the highest chance of not getting rained on....

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