Author: David Reimer

Major Winter Storm on our doorstep

Update from Connor for Oklahoma: The end of the world is upon us! Or at least upon Oklahoma, according to a few models. The 00Z NAM shows over two feet of snow from Norman, OK, all the way to near Pittsburgh, KS! While this seems a little on the high side, it is in the realm of possibility. Thermal profiles will be very conducive to lots of snowfall, with temperatures well below freezing throughout the atmosphere, and hours of continuous precipitation. This is a very powerful system, that will bring STRONG north winds to the region, resulting in wind chills eventually falling into the negative teens! This will create blizzard conditions for any area that receives snowfall most of the state!), and it will be very dangerous to be outdoors for the duration of this event. In addition to this, temperatures will remain below freezing for several days, allowing the snow to remain for a long time! I will be out streaming here in Oklahoma, so keep checking back often for the latest on this historic storm! -Connor _____________________ Good evening, I speak to you on the heels of a historic winter storm that will create some of the most significant impacts some areas of the country have seen this century. As of 8:45 PM, winter storm warnings were in effect from the hill country of Texas all the...

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2/1/2011 Winter Storm – 12 PM Monday Update

[caption id=”attachment_1528″ align=”aligncenter” width=”530″ caption=”Watches/Warnings – 11:40 AM CST”][/caption] Looking at some of the slower new data come in (particularly the 12Z GFS and 4 KM WRF) raises several new concerns regarding tomorrow’s winter storm. FWD just upgraded the winter storm watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the Western/Northwestern sections of North Texas. Here, the models are coming in colder suggesting the potential for a major snowstorm. Snow accumulations of 3 to as much as 8 inches are possible in the warning area. Combined with the strong winds (over 35 MPH) near blizzard conditions are possible with significant amounts of blowing snow. Many folks in North Texas haven’t seen this before. This will reduce visibility below one mile quite easily, and make it hard to distinguish the road surface as snow will continually be blowing over it. Snow drifts are possible, and the lack of snow-plows means that roads will become impassable for those without 4WD. Here in the metroplex, we continue under a Winter Storm Watch. Some concern has been raised over the potential for a squall line to come in later tonight (thunderstorms are likely as I stated in my previous post) that could limit precipitation in the sub-freezing environment. This is just one of many possible scenarios and will continue to be watched. Right now, we’re going to start focusing less on a freezing rain...

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2/1/2011 Winter Storm – Discussion #3

[caption id=”attachment_1521″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”Advisories as of 10 AM CST”][/caption] Good morning, As the above graphic shows, the Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to include the D/FW Metroplex. This is based off slightly higher confidence in more significant impacts for the Metroplex. Right now, the watch goes along and northwest of Cleburne to Bonham line. This is showed by the light blue outline. This is where the NWS expects conditions will become severe enough to impact travel. Dark blue areas are a Winter Weather Advisory, with the teal signifying a Winter Storm Warning. Here in North Texas, most of the watch will likely be changed over to a Winter Weather Advisory by this afternoon, with a Winter Storm Warning for our NW counties where heavier amounts of sleet and snow are possible. [caption id=”attachment_1524″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”12Z NAM – Output for 6 AM Tuesday”][/caption] The 12Z NAM didn’t present any major changes to our thinking for tomorrow‘s event. Still, I need to caution it likely is not picking up the shallower nature of the air, so the freeze line may indeed be further south and east of what is being shown here. However, according to this, moderate to heavy sleet will be falling from a Weatherford to Gainesville line. Heavy to Very Heavy snow may be in progress back towards Wichita Falls, where several inches of snow are...

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2/1/2011 Winter Storm – Discussion #2

Good evening, I hope you all had the opportunity to enjoy this excellent spring-like weather we had this weekend (at least here in North Texas) because that is about to come to a climatic conclusion. Before we dive into the specifics of what is undoubtedly going to be a headache for many forecasters, lets take a look at the national winter weather product map. [caption id=”attachment_1510″ align=”aligncenter” width=”725″ caption=”Winter Weather Products as of 9:30 PM...

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2/1/2011 Winter Storm Potential – Discussion #1

Click any image for a larger version Good afternoon, After procrastinating for a few days on writing the first post relating to a possible winter weather event, I finally decided to do it. The main reason I was holding off was because of the model differences and the fact we were still so far out. While we’re still several days out from this potential event, we’re getting close enough where its time that we started to take a look at different scenarios and see what we may end with. Bear with me here as this will likely be part discussion, part rambling. Lets first take a look at what air mass is going to cause all this mischief, and make Texas feel like Nebraska later this week. This morning, a very cold arctic air mass was just entering the northern plain states from North Dakota over to Minnesota. There temperatures are hovering around zero this morning. Just north of the border, temperatures quickly fall off to negative twenty to thirty Fahrenheit. By Monday, a very strong high pressure will set up over the northern plains, likely over 1040 MB. This will shunt the cold air south, by means of a strong cold front. By Tuesday Morning this cold front will have passed through all of Oklahoma and will be pushing through the northern sections of Texas. Temperatures ahead of...

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